NL Cy Young Award analysis

[don_kessinger_was_good]

My votes as of today:

 

1. Karen Carpenter

2. Zambrano

3. Brandon Webb

4. Matt Cain

5. Derek Lowe

 

Zambrano has the advantage that he's second in the league in BAA, leads the league in K's, has now hit 200 IP, is second in the league in wins, and easily leads the league in HR's by a pitcher :-)

 

Karen OTOH is not far behind with a 226 BAA to Z's 212, is tied with Z in wins, comfortably leads the league in WHIP at 1.04 (BBs kill Carlos), also has 200+ IP, leads the league in ERA, 3 shutouts and 4 CGs, and--in a not-so trivial matter--is the staff ace of a division winning ballclub.

 

Webb's numbers are almost as good as Karen's and he leads the league in wins, it's only the 248 BAA that bothers me some with him.

 

Tough call, but I give it to the Deadbird.

[Balsa]

I just want to say that of those five, I have three on my fantasy team. :D

 

Also, Carpenter clearly deserves the award. He's flat-out dominated the NL this year, with only a couple bad starts at all. His WHIP is fantastic, and he's leading the Cardinals to victory.

 

If Carlos walked less people, there'd be more of a chance for him, but I'm gonna go with Carpenter.

[TruffleShuffle]

Where is Rich Hill?

[Soriano12]

Karen Carpenter

 

:lol:

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Carpenter leads the league in PRC, and it's really not all that close. I'd have to give him the award based on that.

 

Carpenter also has a narrow lead over Webb in pitching win shares.

[illiniguy]

It's cute that the Cardinals will have the MVP and Cy Youngwinner again. Yet, I don't think anyone has them winning the NL.

[kroth1342]

My votes as of today:

 

1. Karen Carpenter

2. Zambrano

3. Brandon Webb

4. Matt Cain

5. Derek Lowe

 

 

Matt Cain??

 

How about Oswalt and his 3.06 ERA and 148 Ks?

 

You lost.

 

I can name some more pitchers with better numbers than Matt Cain:

 

Jason Schmidt, for instance. Josh Johnson. Bronson Arroyo...

[KingCubsFan]

My votes as of today:

 

1. Karen Carpenter

2. Zambrano

3. Brandon Webb

4. Matt Cain

5. Derek Lowe

 

 

Matt Cain??

 

How about Oswalt and his 3.06 ERA and 148 Ks?

 

You lost.

 

I can name some more pitchers with better numbers than Matt Cain:

 

Jason Schmidt, for instance. Josh Johnson. Bronson Arroyo...

Along with the ones he mentioned, Brad Penny as well.

Hey Snoop, does Matt Cain belong anywhere on this list?

http://www.users.muohio.edu/rothkr/snoopsmh.gif

u :evil: ?

[don_kessinger_was_good]

My votes as of today:

 

1. Karen Carpenter

2. Zambrano

3. Brandon Webb

4. Matt Cain

5. Derek Lowe

 

 

Matt Cain??

 

How about Oswalt and his 3.06 ERA and 148 Ks?

 

You lost.

 

I can name some more pitchers with better numbers than Matt Cain:

 

Jason Schmidt, for instance. Josh Johnson. Bronson Arroyo...

 

Cain leads the league with a 208 BAA and is top ten in nearly every other category. He is his team's best pitcher this year--better than Schmidt--and is getting stronger as the year goes on. Since August 1, Cain has in fact been the NL's best starting pitcher.

[TruffleShuffle]

VORP among NL pitchers:

 

1. Chris Carpenter 68.9

2. Brandon Webb 67.5

3. Bronson Arroyo 63.8

4. Roy Oswalt 62.6

5. Jason Jennings 52.8

6. John Smoltz 50.7

7. Jason Schmidt 47.1

8. Chris Capuano 46.6

9. Carlos Zambrano 46.4

10. Josh Johnson 39.7

11. Derek Lowe 38.8

12. Aaron Harang 38.7

13. Dontrelle Willis 38.5

14 (tie) Aaron Cook 38.3

Matt Cain 38.3

 

 

 

Don't really see where Cain fits in this discussion. Yeah, he has pitched very well since the All-Star break and helped the Giants get back in the playoff race, but a 3.75 ERA is just too far inferior to the other guys.

Edited September 18, 2006 by TruffleShuffle

[soccer10k]

My votes as of today:

 

1. Karen Carpenter

2. Zambrano

3. Brandon Webb

4. Matt Cain

5. Derek Lowe

 

Zambrano has the advantage that he's second in the league in BAA, leads the league in K's, has now hit 200 IP, is second in the league in wins, and easily leads the league in HR's by a pitcher :-)

 

Karen OTOH is not far behind with a 226 BAA to Z's 212, is tied with Z in wins, comfortably leads the league in WHIP at 1.04 (BBs kill Carlos), also has 200+ IP, leads the league in ERA, 3 shutouts and 4 CGs, and--in a not-so trivial matter--is the staff ace of a division winning ballclub.

 

Webb's numbers are almost as good as Karen's and he leads the league in wins, it's only the 248 BAA that bothers me some with him.

 

Tough call, but I give it to the Deadbird.

 

Something I don't understand. Some people on this board don't like to use Batting Average as a statistic to evaluate a hitter (which I agree with) so why should Batting Average Against be used to evaluate a pitcher? Why aren't OBPA, SLGA, and OPSA used as well? Since they are used to evaluate hitters they should be used to evaluate pitchers as well.

 

Carpenter has the best OBPA in the NL, the second best SLGA, and the best OPSA. He wins the Cy.

 

I do think Cain deserves some mention in the Cy Young balloting and one could make a serious argument that Cain has been the best pitcher on the Giants this year.

[TruffleShuffle]

Cain leads the league with a 208 BAA and is top ten in nearly every other category.

 

That's good that he leads the league in BAA, but his 78 walks mean he's only in a tie for 6th in OBP against. That's a more important stat.

[TruffleShuffle]

ERA+:

 

1. Webb 161

2. Carp 159

3. Oswalt 147

4. Arroyo 140

5. J. Johnson 135

6. Zambrano 126

 

 

Cain is outside the top 10, at 115.

[TB_11]

The Cy Young discussion should boil down to Webb vs Carpenter vs Oswalt vs Arroyo. As much as I'd love for Zambrano to get serious consideration, he doesn't deserve it.

[TruffleShuffle]

Something I don't understand. Some people on this board don't like to use Batting Average as a statistic to evaluate a hitter (which I agree with) so why should Batting Average Against be used to evaluate a pitcher?

 

I can't speak to how DKWG feels about stats. But, if one believes BA to be insignificant relative to OBP and SLG, then it would be inconsistent for that same person to value BAA over OBPA and SLGA.

[Derwood]

What matters to the idiot voters:

 

1. Wins

2. Team Wins

3. K's

4. ERA

5. Character/Intestinal Fortitude/I've heard of him

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Top Five in PRC

 

1. Carpenter

2. Arroyo

3. Webb

4. Oswalt

5. Smoltz

 

Top 5 in Pitching WS

1. Carpenter

2. Webb

3. Arroyo

4. Oswalt

5. Capuano

 

I just don't see how Cain even merits mention within the discussion.

[soccer10k]

Cain NL ranks in BAA/OBPA/SLGA/OPSA are 1st/tie 6th/1st/2nd. That's why he merits discussion.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Cain NL ranks in BAA/OBPA/SLGA/OPSA are 1st/tie 6th/1st/2nd. That's why he merits discussion.

 

But ultimately, he still doesn't have the production of a number of other pitchers.

[soccer10k]

Cain NL ranks in BAA/OBPA/SLGA/OPSA are 1st/tie 6th/1st/2nd. That's why he merits discussion.

 

But ultimately, he still doesn't have the production of a number of other pitchers.

 

I'm not saying or arguing that Cain should win the Cy Young award. But I just don't agree at all that he shouldn't be in the discussion. If I had a vote, Carpenter would get it.

 

Look at some of the other guys that have been mentioned:

 

Truffle brought up Cain's 3.75 ERA as reason Cain shouldn't be in the discussion. Ok, so then why did you, vance mention Smoltz (3.71) in PRC and Capuano (3.66) in WS. DKWG mentioned Derek Lowe (3.77). KingCubsFan said Cain didn't deserve it but mentioned Brad Penny (4.04).

And as I stated earlier, Cain has the second best OPSA in the National League, with Carpenter being the only pitcher better than Cain. Again, I'm not saying Cain should win it but saying he shouldn't even be in the discussion is ludicrous.

[KingCubsFan]

Cain NL ranks in BAA/OBPA/SLGA/OPSA are 1st/tie 6th/1st/2nd. That's why he merits discussion.

 

But ultimately, he still doesn't have the production of a number of other pitchers.

 

I'm not saying or arguing that Cain should win the Cy Young award. But I just don't agree at all that he shouldn't be in the discussion. If I had a vote, Carpenter would get it.

 

Look at some of the other guys that have been mentioned:

 

Truffle brought up Cain's 3.75 ERA as reason Cain shouldn't be in the discussion. Ok, so then why did you, vance mention Smoltz (3.71) in PRC and Capuano (3.66) in WS. DKWG mentioned Derek Lowe (3.77). KingCubsFan said Cain didn't deserve it but mentioned Brad Penny (4.04).

And as I stated earlier, Cain has the second best OPSA in the National League, with Carpenter being the only pitcher better than Cain. Again, I'm not saying Cain should win it but saying he shouldn't even be in the discussion is ludicrous.

I mentioned Penny because he's up there in wins, has a decent amount of K's, and plays for a division-leading team. Not to mention he started the All-Star game. Like it or not, these are the type of things the voters look for, which is why I think he would rank ahead of Cain in Cy Young voting

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Cain NL ranks in BAA/OBPA/SLGA/OPSA are 1st/tie 6th/1st/2nd. That's why he merits discussion.

 

But ultimately, he still doesn't have the production of a number of other pitchers.

 

I'm not saying or arguing that Cain should win the Cy Young award. But I just don't agree at all that he shouldn't be in the discussion. If I had a vote, Carpenter would get it.

 

Look at some of the other guys that have been mentioned:

 

Truffle brought up Cain's 3.75 ERA as reason Cain shouldn't be in the discussion. Ok, so then why did you, vance mention Smoltz (3.71) in PRC and Capuano (3.66) in WS. DKWG mentioned Derek Lowe (3.77). KingCubsFan said Cain didn't deserve it but mentioned Brad Penny (4.04).

And as I stated earlier, Cain has the second best OPSA in the National League, with Carpenter being the only pitcher better than Cain. Again, I'm not saying Cain should win it but saying he shouldn't even be in the discussion is ludicrous.

 

I only mentioned Smoltz and Cap in listing the stat to show Cain is not among the top five in those categoires that attempt to be comprehensive. I didn't offer commentary. I don't think Capuano or Smoltz belong in the discussion either.

 

The discussion in my mind should involve Carpenter, Webb, Oswalt, and Arroyo with Zambrano meriting outside mention. Anyone else can get a mention as an also-ran.

 

When taking the pitcher's entire performance in totality, these are the ones that have performed the best this season.

 

Not only is Cain not in the top five of PRC, he's not in the top ten.

 

He's also not in the top five of pitching WS either.

 

When looking at composite stats, Cain doesn't belong.

 

For those who want a less Saber approach, He's not among the top ten in ERA, wins, or strike-outs and barely cracks it with WHIP. I understand his numebers look good in some categories, but he's not among the top ten is the more comprehensive saber categories, nor is he in the top in the traditonal categories.

 

He may be one of the top fifteen pitchers in the NL this year, but I don't see how anyone could think he's among the top five which would be needed to merit including him in the Cy Young discusion...unless you want to include fifteen pitchers in that discussion.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

Wow, I'll remember not to send you guys the Welcome Package for Matt Cain's Fan Club. Sheesh, take it easy. I think his performance merits discussion, I didn't put him in my top 3 fer crying out loud.

 

Do note the kid is just 21 yo, he's a keeper.

[Guest]

What matters to the idiot voters:

 

1. Wins

2. Team Wins

3. K's

4. ERA

5. Character/Intestinal Fortitude/I've heard of him

You forgot reputation.

[kroth1342]

Wow, I'll remember not to send you guys the Welcome Package for Matt Cain's Fan Club. Sheesh, take it easy. I think his performance merits discussion, I didn't put him in my top 3 fer crying out loud.

 

Do note the kid is just 21 yo, he's a keeper.

 

No you just put him 4th, ahead of several pitchers more qualified. Thats all.