Juan Pierre leading the league in caught stealing

[Jon]

Nice.

 

Have there been any recent studies on the break even point? The latest I've seen uses data from 1999-2002 or something like that.

 

Space was tight in the paper for today, but Dusty lamented a number of "questionable calls" on Pierre's attempted steals and that catchers have been throwing it "right on the toe" to nab Pierre.

Ah. Yeah, it's a shame the opposing catchers are getting lucky so often. And considering Pierre's lifetime 73% success rate, things are surely going to get better for him in September. But hey, he's a true leadoff hitter.

 

I'm sure they believe he'll start to beat out more routine grounders to second, as well.

[CubColtPacer]

Nice.

 

Have there been any recent studies on the break even point? The latest I've seen uses data from 1999-2002 or something like that.

 

Space was tight in the paper for today, but Dusty lamented a number of "questionable calls" on Pierre's attempted steals and that catchers have been throwing it "right on the toe" to nab Pierre.

 

It's true that there are several times he has been safe at 2nd in the past month that they have called him out on-but that's part of the risk of stealing. It is almost always a close play at 2nd, and you're going to have a higher number of bad calls there than just about anywhere else. You have to factor that possibility in when deciding if to steal or not.

[hardcorecubfan]

Is there a small under-tone here that is suggesting that stealing bases is old fashion and should be eliminated from the vocabulary of managers and leadoff hitter?

 

 

An exciting part of the game that is just one chess move I hope is never eliminated

[UK1679666180]

Is there a small under-tone here that is suggesting that stealing bases is old fashion and should be eliminated from the vocabulary of managers and leadoff hitter?

 

 

An exciting part of the game that is just one chess move I hope is never eliminated

 

It should never be eliminated, but there are times when it can be ineffective and teams should be looking at how to improve the success rate rather than trying to improve the actual amount of SB, if the CS ration remains the same.

 

The ability of a pitcher to keep runners close with a good move or varying his times to home combined with a quick delivery to home is more important to stopping a running game than just a C with a strong arm. Baserunners are more successful by taking advantage of pitchers who are slow to the plate, rather than jumping on weak armed Cs.

[WrigleyField 22]

I think the bottom line is not how fast a guy is, but how wel he uses the speed he has. This applies on the basepaths, but also other areas such as defense. For instance I was watching the Cubs game last night and I think it was the first hit of the game, a line drive up the middle that Bynum didnt reach. Hes a fast guy but as you saw the replay he had to first plant with the away foot so he was behind a step and missed the ball by a little less than a step. This is just an isolated incident and I haven't seen enough of Bynum t 2B to know if he does it a lot, but the point is a small change in step can give the guy the slight advantage needed. Its how Singletary compensated for his lack of speed on the football field.

 

Theres a lot of speed/quickness knowledge and training out there these days and while I think it has less value in baseball than other sports, little things in footwork can make a big difference in a guys defensive or baserunning capabilities. If you use this type of knowledge to your advantage you wont get caught up in just pure speed. Guys take a lo of wasted steps and general body movements contradict what guys are trying to do.

[biittner77]

Presumably Hendry brought in Pierre because he can steal bases. This leads me to 2 questions

 

1 Why would you want someone to steal a base in front of Lee & Ramirez and risk making an out

 

2 Why does Baker have the #2 hitter bunt Pierre to sedond without giving him a chance to steal?

[biittner77]

The value of the steal (and the CS) depends on the run environment. In a big offensive era (such as, say, now), the value of the extra base means much less because it is more likely that the following hitters are going to drive in the runner no matter what base he's on.

 

In a low scoring environment (such as when the majority of MLB managers were playing the game), the SB is much more important because it is more difficult to scratch out each individual run. But I think most managers in the game have this mindset from their playing days.

 

There's also one other factor and that is that baseball players are widely held to be the dumbest of all professional athletes. Dumb people tend to feel threatened by things they don't understand. Notice how the term stat geek crops up a lot from the old school guys.

[soccer10k]

Starting in 2001 (Pierre's first full season) he has ranked 1st, T-10th, 2nd, 1st, 2nd in the majors in CS and is 1st this year.