Matt Murton revisited

[CubColtPacer]

Sign Soriano to play 2B and hit 6th, Murton leads off from left. Trade Cedeno if there is a market or he can back up the MIF.

 

Murton

Izturis (I know he's not ideal here but I think it'll do)

Lee

Aram

Barret

Soriano

Jacque

Pie

 

 

sign Schmidt, pack Prior in bubble wrap and hope for the best.

 

Izturis has a .302 OBP for each of the last 3 years. Why would we want to bat him 2nd? He's not only not ideal, he's terrible for the 2nd spot. I'd probably put Barrett there, since he get on-base at a good clip. And you might as well put Soriano 5th to drive in runs. Doesn't matter if he gets on base since the guys behind him suck anyway.

 

Bat Izturis 8th. And hope he's injured again next year and Cedeno can go back to SS.

 

Well, technically, Izturis has had a .302 each of the last 2 years-2004 he had a .330 OBP. With that said, I agree with you-he should be the number 8 hitter next season. And if you have Izturis on the team, why would you want him to get injured so Cedeno can play? Even if Cedeno improves his OBP 20 points next season, he'll still only be at .295, which would still be worse than Izturis-so you're still hurting the offense by having Izturis hurt.

 

Jones is terrible huh? So terrible that his OPS is still above Murton's this year? (Yes, I know-Murton is likely to improve, which I agree that he is). Just sign Jacque a platoon partner and hopes he puts up the same numbers against right handers next season-.307/.347/537. Those are approx the same numbers against one side of the plate that Carlos Lee has this year against both sides, and Lee will probably make at least 12 million dollars this year-if you can find a guy that drills left handers, you can save 5 million from that position and still in effect pick up a big bat in right field.

[soapy]

As of right now, my preferred option (based on what I think is possible based on budget/player availability) would be to let Pierre walk, put Pie in CF, and sign Soriano at 2B. I don't really care what batting order you use, maybe hit Barrett 2nd?

 

Murton

Barrett

Lee

Soriano

Ramirez

Jones/Platoon

Pie

Izturis

 

That only requires one major position-player FA signing (Soriano) and hopefully gives the Cubs enough money to upgrade the SP. Some managers may feel inclined to let Soriano lead-off, in which case Murton could bat 2nd and Barret could slide in behind Ramirez.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I agree completely. As the steriod era falls by the wayside, guys like Muton will become more valuable. 15-20 HRs 300ish average and 380is OBP will look very good.

 

How is Murton going to get to a .380 OBP? He's short of .360 this year, and he has a slightly favorable platoon distribution(faced a higher % of LHP than if he played every day) and his BABIP is about 30 points higher than his LD% says it should, which means he doesn't really have much room for growth AVG wise. His minor league IsoD was a little higher, but his BABIP dropping 10 points is just as likely(probably moreso) as him improving those 10 in IsoD.

[Soul]

Sign Soriano to play 2B and hit 6th, Murton leads off from left. Trade Cedeno if there is a market or he can back up the MIF.

 

Murton

Izturis (I know he's not ideal here but I think it'll do)

Lee

Aram

Barret

Soriano

Jacque

Pie

 

 

sign Schmidt, pack Prior in bubble wrap and hope for the best.

 

I'm just guessing right now, but I'm thinking Soriano + Schmidt = too much extra payroll for the Trib to stomach. They wouldn't even cough up the dough for Furcal.

[goonys evil twin]

I agree completely. As the steriod era falls by the wayside, guys like Muton will become more valuable. 15-20 HRs 300ish average and 380is OBP will look very good.

 

How is Murton going to get to a .380 OBP? He's short of .360 this year, and he has a slightly favorable platoon distribution(faced a higher % of LHP than if he played every day) and his BABIP is about 30 points higher than his LD% says it should, which means he doesn't really have much room for growth AVG wise. His minor league IsoD was a little higher, but his BABIP dropping 10 points is just as likely(probably moreso) as him improving those 10 in IsoD.

 

Well, he is 24, odds are he'll get better, which would lead to higher numbers.

[Mark_R]

I agree completely. As the steriod era falls by the wayside, guys like Muton will become more valuable. 15-20 HRs 300ish average and 380is OBP will look very good.

 

How is Murton going to get to a .380 OBP? He's short of .360 this year, and he has a slightly favorable platoon distribution(faced a higher % of LHP than if he played every day) and his BABIP is about 30 points higher than his LD% says it should, which means he doesn't really have much room for growth AVG wise. His minor league IsoD was a little higher, but his BABIP dropping 10 points is just as likely(probably moreso) as him improving those 10 in IsoD.

 

I would think his obp would improve as he progresses a hitter and has a manager who embraces a walk instead of frowning upon it.

[jmajew]

Heres a suggestion. Sign Soriano. Vs Righties play him at second and have Jones in Right. Vs Lefties have him play right and put cedeno at second. Then you can Keep Murton in Left. The two lineups would be:

 

RH

Pierre

Murton

DLee

Ramirez

Jones

Soriano

Barrett

Izturis/Cedeno

 

LH

Pierre

Murton

DLEE

Ramirez

Soriano

Barrett

Theriot/Cedeno

Izturis/Cedeno

 

 

I think this would be a pretty decent lineup.

[Tracer Bullet]

Sign Soriano to play 2B and hit 6th, Murton leads off from left. Trade Cedeno if there is a market or he can back up the MIF.

 

Murton

Izturis (I know he's not ideal here but I think it'll do)

Lee

Aram

Barret

Soriano

Jacque

Pie

 

 

sign Schmidt, pack Prior in bubble wrap and hope for the best.

 

Izturis has a .302 OBP for each of the last 3 years. Why would we want to bat him 2nd? He's not only not ideal, he's terrible for the 2nd spot. I'd probably put Barrett there, since he get on-base at a good clip. And you might as well put Soriano 5th to drive in runs. Doesn't matter if he gets on base since the guys behind him suck anyway.

 

Bat Izturis 8th. And hope he's injured again next year and Cedeno can go back to SS.

 

Well, technically, Izturis has had a .302 each of the last 2 years-2004 he had a .330 OBP. With that said, I agree with you-he should be the number 8 hitter next season. And if you have Izturis on the team, why would you want him to get injured so Cedeno can play? Even if Cedeno improves his OBP 20 points next season, he'll still only be at .295, which would still be worse than Izturis-so you're still hurting the offense by having Izturis hurt.

 

Jones is terrible huh? So terrible that his OPS is still above Murton's this year? (Yes, I know-Murton is likely to improve, which I agree that he is). Just sign Jacque a platoon partner and hopes he puts up the same numbers against right handers next season-.307/.347/537. Those are approx the same numbers against one side of the plate that Carlos Lee has this year against both sides, and Lee will probably make at least 12 million dollars this year-if you can find a guy that drills left handers, you can save 5 million from that position and still in effect pick up a big bat in right field.

 

I glanced at Izturis' last 3 lines, and didn't realize it was numbers for '05 with the Dodgers, '06 with the Dodgers, and '06 with the Cubs - so yes, last 2 years. But we agree he needs to hit 8th. And I still think Cedeno can improve. Maybe not, but he's 3 full years younger than Izturis, so I think it's more likely he improves.

 

As for Jones - I think he sucks. He's been very good against RHP this year. But over the last few years, his OPS against RHP has been .814, .775, .834. Not bad, but not great either. He's 32 next year and I think it's more likely he sees an OPS near .800 against RHP in the next 2 years than the .880+ he's had this year.

[Tracer Bullet]

Heres a suggestion. Sign Soriano. Vs Righties play him at second and have Jones in Right. Vs Lefties have him play right and put cedeno at second. Then you can Keep Murton in Left. The two lineups would be:

 

RH

Pierre

Murton

DLee

Ramirez

Jones

Soriano

Barrett

Izturis/Cedeno

 

LH

Pierre

Murton

DLEE

Ramirez

Soriano

Barrett

Theriot/Cedeno

Izturis/Cedeno

 

 

I think this would be a pretty decent lineup.

 

If Barrett is anywhere near this year's .940 OPS and .390 OBP, it's a complete waste to hit him 6th or 7th. Assuming he puts up an OBP of at least .350 or so, I'd hit him 2nd, behind Murton. I like the idea of Theriot or Cedeno playing 2nd with Soriano in RF against LHP (not sure how bad Soriano would be in RF). I'd prefer Cedeno full time at SS and Theriot at 2B against LHP, but that's not going to happen w/ Izturis around.

 

And I'd prefer if JP wasn't back, esp not leading off, and esp not for what he's going to be asking (.280 AVG and 43 steals are going to rope some GM in). I saw enough 4-3 outs that I'd just as soon put Pie in CF and let him hit 7th/8th than suffer through JP at the top of the order for another season (or more, since he's not going to sign a 1-year deal).

[jjgman21]

I agree completely. As the steriod era falls by the wayside, guys like Muton will become more valuable. 15-20 HRs 300ish average and 380is OBP will look very good.

 

How is Murton going to get to a .380 OBP? He's short of .360 this year, and he has a slightly favorable platoon distribution(faced a higher % of LHP than if he played every day) and his BABIP is about 30 points higher than his LD% says it should, which means he doesn't really have much room for growth AVG wise. His minor league IsoD was a little higher, but his BABIP dropping 10 points is just as likely(probably moreso) as him improving those 10 in IsoD.

 

the problem with the LD% stat is it does not qualify flyballs, groundballs, or line drives. a humpback soft liner increases LD% while a worm burning hard hit groundball decreases LD%. same with towering flyballs caught just in front of the centerfield fence. Murton almost always hits the ball hard, just on the ground too much. just like with IsoP, its a situation where you have to look beyond the stats. an adjustment or two from a competent coach and alot of those groundballs become liners through the infield, just as alot of his liners through the infield become linedrives over the outfielders heads and into the gaps.

[Soul]

I agree completely. As the steriod era falls by the wayside, guys like Muton will become more valuable. 15-20 HRs 300ish average and 380is OBP will look very good.

 

How is Murton going to get to a .380 OBP? He's short of .360 this year, and he has a slightly favorable platoon distribution(faced a higher % of LHP than if he played every day) and his BABIP is about 30 points higher than his LD% says it should, which means he doesn't really have much room for growth AVG wise. His minor league IsoD was a little higher, but his BABIP dropping 10 points is just as likely(probably moreso) as him improving those 10 in IsoD.

 

I would think his obp would improve as he progresses a hitter and has a manager who embraces a walk instead of frowning upon it.

 

I, too, am assuming Matt will make more improvements. Maybe that's a dangerously wrong assumption. I hope not.

[wastra]

Murton's already showing improved power since his June slump. He's a very good hitter, but I don't think he's going to top 15-20 homers often in his career.

 

I don't really care about 20+ homers as long as he gets on base, hits plenty of gappers (doubles), etc. I think he can do that. I was having some doubts earlier this year, I admit, but he's workign through it. Everyone always says the second stint through the league is the toughest. I think/hope he's weathered that storm and can continue to hit like has has recently.