Harvey

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Out of curiousity, what is an average BABIP and what is considered unsustainable?

 

At the Major League level, the average is about .300 I believe. What's considered sustainable is often a function of how many line drives a player hits, but very few major leaguers (less than 20 this year) reach a BABIP over .350, and even fewer than that can consistently reach that mark.

[Outshined_One]

Out of curiousity, what is an average BABIP and what is considered unsustainable?

 

Average BABIP tends to be between .280-.310. There's room for fudging with those numbers and nothing is set in stone...but anything noticeably beyond those numbers is typically considered unsustainable.

[CubsWin]

Out of curiousity, what is an average BABIP and what is considered unsustainable?

 

Average BABIP tends to be between .280-.310. There's room for fudging with those numbers and nothing is set in stone...but anything noticeably beyond those numbers is typically considered unsustainable.

At the major league level, yes. Does anyone have any stats for league average BABIP at lower levels? Is it any different?

[Outshined_One]

Out of curiousity, what is an average BABIP and what is considered unsustainable?

 

Average BABIP tends to be between .280-.310. There's room for fudging with those numbers and nothing is set in stone...but anything noticeably beyond those numbers is typically considered unsustainable.

At the major league level, yes. Does anyone have any stats for league average BABIP at lower levels? Is it any different?

 

It's fairly comparable, to my knowledge.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

Let's face it, he hasn't lived up to his billing at the 6th overall pick in a draft that featured some of the best young players and prospects in baseball today. At the rate things are going, I don't think that is going to change.

 

Man oh man, is that ever a depressing list. Young, Weeks, Markakis, Quentin, Jackson, Billingsley, Milledge, Cordero and Wood just for starters. But hey, we have both Harvey and Aardsma! (puke)

[RyCubsFan]

Let's face it, he hasn't lived up to his billing at the 6th overall pick in a draft that featured some of the best young players and prospects in baseball today. At the rate things are going, I don't think that is going to change.

 

Man oh man, is that ever a depressing list. Young, Weeks, Markakis, Quentin, Jackson, Billingsley, Milledge, Cordero and Wood just for starters. But hey, we have both Harvey and Aardsma! (puke)

 

Hey, at least we have Murton! He was the 32nd pick in the first round (a supplemental).

[Mephistopheles]

At the major league level, yes. Does anyone have any stats for league average BABIP at lower levels? Is it any different?

 

Remember that park factors have a lot to do with BABIP. In a place like Coors Field the BABIP would be higher than a place like Dodger Stadium. Park doesn't just factor home runs. In the minors the same is true - but for leagues. The California and Pioneer leagues are offensive havens, so we would expect their league BABIP's to be higher. If you only look at sea-level leagues, you get this:

 

.309 Majors

.314 IL+AA

.316 Eas+Sou

.316 Caro+FSL

.321 SAL+ML

.323 NY-P

.340 App

 

Source: Baseball Prospectus

 

Of course the higher BABIP's at lower levels is probably due to inferior fielders more than anything. Keep in mind that a hitter has much more control over his BABIP than a pitcher does. I'll run through the data shortly to show the difference.

[CuseCubFan69]

Is it possible that Harvey has learned how to hit his pitches or has learned how to hit the pitches that used to get him out?

[Mephistopheles]

Since 1994, and I didn't account for players switching teams the large sample should waterdown that effect. I only used the present era, in case that would distort the data.I used a minimum of 400 ABs, and this left me with 1,216 samples of back-to-back seasons by the same player. Running a correlation I got an r of .411. I should also note that their is a selection bias, all of the player who get 400 ABs in back-to-back seasons are the inherently some of the best hitters in baseball. The average BABIP for all of the players was .311 and the maximum was done by Manny Ramirez the year he heat .351. The minimum was .221 by Orlando Cabrera in 2001.

 

I can quickly run year-to-year correlations for the hitters of other stats if you want me to. Just say what statistic.

 

I did the same thing with pitchers earlier, but only using 1970-1993, I got an r of .218, this should be similar to the 1994-2005 data because the 70-93 era was pretty close. So from this data, a pitcher has about 5% control of their BABIP and a hitter has control of about 17%.

[Soriano12]

Is it possible that Harvey has learned how to hit his pitches or has learned how to hit the pitches that used to get him out?

 

Probably the latter.

[Jehrico]

Whether it is hit on the ground, on a line or in the air, a harder hit ball gets through holes faster, finds the gap easier and travels furthur through the air. His swing adjustment has resulted in an increase in power as well. Is it just due to luck that 12 of Ryan Harvey's flyballs have gone over the fence since July 1st? That will increase BABIP, too.

 

No, it won't. Home runs are not balls in play; they are not counted in BABIP. The only way you can really try to justify that statement is by saying that fly balls that would have been outs have been leaving the park, reducing the number of outs on balls in play and increasing his BABIP artificially--and that's quite a stretch. More consistent power does offset a low natural BABIP a lot, though. If he can hit a higher number of balls out of play, he won't need to sustain a high BABIP to be productive so much.

 

"He shoots, he scores!

 

That was nuch easier than putting.

I should try and do that every time."

 

Adam Sandler on making a hole-in-one during Happy Gilmore.

 

I don't care if his BABIP indicates this level of success is likely unattainable. This is one of those cases where common sense has to override the stats. When a prospect makes an adjustment, and you see continued improvement each and every month of the season as a result, it's a good sign, BABIP red flags or not. I don't think anyone expects Harvey to sustain a .600 or .700 slugging throughout the minors.. I do like the continued improvement, it bodes well that he is coming around, and this his approach is being refined, as it badly needed it.

 

Here's another good sign: Even though his average and OBP are way up this month over last month, his slugging is actually down. I could be reading this wrong, but I take it to mean that he's getting pitched alot tougher than he was (I'd imagine as hot as he's been, he's getting fewer pitches over the plate), and that he's adjusting. He's not looking to pull everything out of the park, he's focusing more on waiting for a hittable pitch and just putting it in play. I'm not worried about his power, I'm worried about his approach and ability to adapt. The drop in slg despite a spike in average and OBP tells me he is adapting to how he's being pitched.

[BeerHere]

The more he plays, the more Harvey will make the Cubs regret the 2003 draft. Picking at 6 the Cubs passed on Markakis, Stewart, Milledge, Aaron Hill, Conor Jackson, Brandon Wood, Chad Billingsley, Carlos Quentin and Eric Duncan.

 

For Harvey

 

 

The draft is a crapshoot, but is there anyone on that list that you wouldn't take ahead of Harvey now?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I don't care if his BABIP indicates this level of success is likely unattainable. This is one of those cases where common sense has to override the stats.

 

You really should care.

[Guest]

The more he plays, the more Harvey will make the Cubs regret the 2003 draft. Picking at 6 the Cubs passed on Markakis, Stewart, Milledge, Aaron Hill, Conor Jackson, Brandon Wood, Chad Billingsley, Carlos Quentin and Eric Duncan.

 

For Harvey

 

 

The draft is a crapshoot, but is there anyone on that list that you wouldn't take ahead of Harvey now?

What's special about Eric Duncan?

[BeerHere]

The more he plays, the more Harvey will make the Cubs regret the 2003 draft. Picking at 6 the Cubs passed on Markakis, Stewart, Milledge, Aaron Hill, Conor Jackson, Brandon Wood, Chad Billingsley, Carlos Quentin and Eric Duncan.

 

For Harvey

 

 

The draft is a crapshoot, but is there anyone on that list that you wouldn't take ahead of Harvey now?

What's special about Eric Duncan?

 

Nothing. But when compared to Harvey his .840+OPS in AA is respectable (age notwithstanding).

[BeerHere]

The more he plays, the more Harvey will make the Cubs regret the 2003 draft. Picking at 6 the Cubs passed on Markakis, Stewart, Milledge, Aaron Hill, Conor Jackson, Brandon Wood, Chad Billingsley, Carlos Quentin and Eric Duncan.

 

For Harvey

 

 

The draft is a crapshoot, but is there anyone on that list that you wouldn't take ahead of Harvey now?

What's special about Eric Duncan?

 

Nothing. But when compared to Harvey his .840+OPS in AA is respectable (age notwithstanding).

 

It should also be noted that the Cubs passed on Murton who was taken in the supp. round by the rsox.

[Soriano12]

The more he plays, the more Harvey will make the Cubs regret the 2003 draft. Picking at 6 the Cubs passed on Markakis, Stewart, Milledge, Aaron Hill, Conor Jackson, Brandon Wood, Chad Billingsley, Carlos Quentin and Eric Duncan.

 

For Harvey

 

 

The draft is a crapshoot, but is there anyone on that list that you wouldn't take ahead of Harvey now?

 

I'm glad Wilken is running the drafts now.

 

The have been really burned on some of these high school players.

 

Luis Montanaz, wasn't he the 4th or 5th overall pick? I don't even wanna know who they passed on that year.

[BeerHere]

The more he plays, the more Harvey will make the Cubs regret the 2003 draft. Picking at 6 the Cubs passed on Markakis, Stewart, Milledge, Aaron Hill, Conor Jackson, Brandon Wood, Chad Billingsley, Carlos Quentin and Eric Duncan.

 

For Harvey

 

 

The draft is a crapshoot, but is there anyone on that list that you wouldn't take ahead of Harvey now?

 

I'm glad Wilken is running the drafts now.

 

The have been really burned on some of these high school players.

 

Luis Montanaz, wasn't he the 4th or 5th overall pick? I don't even wanna know who they passed on that year.

 

2000 wasn't a strong draft but the notable players that were selected after Montanez were: Rocco Baldelli, Chase Utley, Adrian Gonzalez, Boof Bonser, Aaron Heilman, Xavier Nady, Grady Sizemore and Cliff Lee.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

The more he plays, the more Harvey will make the Cubs regret the 2003 draft. Picking at 6 the Cubs passed on Markakis, Stewart, Milledge, Aaron Hill, Conor Jackson, Brandon Wood, Chad Billingsley, Carlos Quentin and Eric Duncan.

 

For Harvey

 

 

The draft is a crapshoot, but is there anyone on that list that you wouldn't take ahead of Harvey now?

 

I'm glad Wilken is running the drafts now.

 

The have been really burned on some of these high school players.

 

Luis Montanaz, wasn't he the 4th or 5th overall pick? I don't even wanna know who they passed on that year.

 

2000 wasn't a strong draft but the notable players that were selected after Montanez were: Rocco Baldelli, Chase Utley, Adrian Gonzalez, Boof Bonser, Aaron Heilman, Xavier Nady, Grady Sizemore and Cliff Lee.

 

Fast Freddie Bynum went in round 2.

[BeerHere]

The more he plays, the more Harvey will make the Cubs regret the 2003 draft. Picking at 6 the Cubs passed on Markakis, Stewart, Milledge, Aaron Hill, Conor Jackson, Brandon Wood, Chad Billingsley, Carlos Quentin and Eric Duncan.

 

For Harvey

 

 

The draft is a crapshoot, but is there anyone on that list that you wouldn't take ahead of Harvey now?

 

I'm glad Wilken is running the drafts now.

 

The have been really burned on some of these high school players.

 

Luis Montanaz, wasn't he the 4th or 5th overall pick? I don't even wanna know who they passed on that year.

 

2000 wasn't a strong draft but the notable players that were selected after Montanez were: Rocco Baldelli, Chase Utley, Adrian Gonzalez, Boof Bonser, Aaron Heilman, Xavier Nady, Grady Sizemore and Cliff Lee.

 

Fast Freddie Bynum went in round 2.

 

Chase Utley reminds me of Ryno. He would be the perfect second baseman for this team. Patience, good pop, decent range, hits from the left side. We missed that one big-time.

[illiniguy]

The more he plays, the more Harvey will make the Cubs regret the 2003 draft. Picking at 6 the Cubs passed on Markakis, Stewart, Milledge, Aaron Hill, Conor Jackson, Brandon Wood, Chad Billingsley, Carlos Quentin and Eric Duncan.

 

For Harvey

 

 

The draft is a crapshoot, but is there anyone on that list that you wouldn't take ahead of Harvey now?

 

I'm glad Wilken is running the drafts now.

 

The have been really burned on some of these high school players.

 

Luis Montanaz, wasn't he the 4th or 5th overall pick? I don't even wanna know who they passed on that year.

 

2000 wasn't a strong draft but the notable players that were selected after Montanez were: Rocco Baldelli, Chase Utley, Adrian Gonzalez, Boof Bonser, Aaron Heilman, Xavier Nady, Grady Sizemore and Cliff Lee.

 

Fast Freddie Bynum went in round 2.

 

Chase Utley reminds me of Ryno. He would be the perfect second baseman for this team. Patience, good pop, decent range, hits from the left side. We missed that one big-time.

Sizemore would have been a nice problem to have.

[Guest]

14 teams passed on Utley.

 

Every single team in the draft passed on Sizemore (3rd), Cliff Lee (4th), Chris Young (3rd), David DeJesus (4th) and Nady (2nd) as they weren't first round selections.

 

Look at the White Sox - they not only passed on all those guys, but gave a draft record bonus to Joe Borchard in 2000.

[Guest]

Actually, the most depressing thing I see there is this sequence from the fourth round:

 

103. Cubs Todd Wellemeyer, rhp Bellarmine (Ky.) Coll.

104. Royals David DeJesus, of Rutgers

105. Expos Cliff Lee, lhp Arkansas

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Ryan Harvey was the consensus pick at #6, it was him or Michael Aubrey and it looks like most teams would have taken Harvey. It's not like this year, when the Cubs took a player some other teams would have taken in the 2nd or 3rd round over other guys who were rated higher by most, if not all teams.

[goonys evil twin]

Ryan Harvey was the consensus pick at #6, it was him or Michael Aubrey and it looks like most teams would have taken Harvey. It's not like this year, when the Cubs took a player some other teams would have taken in the 2nd or 3rd round over other guys who were rated higher by most, if not all teams.

 

Consensus or not, the Cubs took a guy high who has been a major disappointment, again.