Pierre?

Warpticon · July 24, 2006

2) I'd rather have a productive hitter who doesn't hustle.

When was that productivity exactly? Was that when the club needed him to step up and be a leader, when DLee was out.

This guy has a history of not caring, making bad decisions and not hustling. Just like Kerry Wood, I expect the highest paid players on the team to do produce and be a leader. Not too much to ask.

So you trade them for unproductive players who do hustle?

Caryatid · July 24, 2006

2) I'd rather have a productive hitter who doesn't hustle.

When was that productivity exactly? Was that when the club needed him to step up and be a leader, when DLee was out.

This guy has a history of not caring, making bad decisions and not hustling. Just like Kerry Wood, I expect the highest paid players on the team to do produce and be a leader. Not too much to ask.

He has produced hugely every year he has been here. He's not a centerpiece player-does that mean he shouldn't be here? Why do people expect that anyone who has talent needs to fit some kind of hero role? There are second-tier players in the game that are incredibly valuable-Ramirez is one of them.

Just because he doesn't root, root, root for the home team doesn't mean he's not incredibly valuable. This whole "leadership" junk is unbelievably overrated.

Too many people would prefer a team full of Juan Pierre's (guys who aren't very talented but try really hard) to a team full of Aramis Ramirez's. One of those teams would win 80 times out of 100, and it ain't the team full of Juan Pierres.

dvdd127 · July 24, 2006

Those who say that Pierre will stay....have you considered the fact that Pierre won't want to stay? He hasn't been given a great impression that the Cubs are going to be good anytime soon.

*apoligize if this has already been brought up, I only read the first page*

actually... to me it has sounded like he wants to stay because he thinks that the arent to far off from contending. Unfortunatly I have not quotes from him.. because I dont remember when he was last interviewd.. but I do recall... it was on CSN

badgercub · July 24, 2006

Those who say that Pierre will stay....have you considered the fact that Pierre won't want to stay? He hasn't been given a great impression that the Cubs are going to be good anytime soon.

*apoligize if this has already been brought up, I only read the first page*
actually... to me it has sounded like he wants to stay because he thinks that the arent to far off from contending. Unfortunatly I have not quotes from him.. because I dont remember when he was last interviewd.. but I do recall... it was on CSN

Of course a guy in his position is going to say he wants to stay. Why would he eliminate a team that constantly bids against itself for crappy players, and if the Cubs can drive up the price with other teams in the bidding, all the better.

Hacking Out Machine · July 24, 2006

My problem with Pierre is that his production is so heavily average-driven...which is troubling considering how few line drives he hits. I believe he leads the league in IF hits, meaning the majority of his game is based on defensive mistakes, pitch placement, and other factors that can heavily contribute to inconsistency. Couple that with the fact that he's getting older and will start losing a step or two, I question the value of re-signing him, especially as a leadoff hitter.

The minors don't currently have guys who could take over immediately. Pie likely won't be ready on Opening Day 2007. Walker is really fast, but I question how ready he is, as well. I'm really leery of Miguel Negron.

Best option would be to shift Jock to CF and acquire a RF, imo. The Cubs will lose some range, but I think it would be better for the offense to pick up a guy like Abreu, Lee, or whomever for RF.

Let some one else convince themselves of Pierre's worth and overpay for him.

I am a subscriber to this theory, especially about losing a step from home to first. I can't tell you how many times I've seen him hit a slow roller to the left side of the infield, expect him to beat it out, and watch him get thrown out. If he's lost a step, he is overwhelmingly likely to continue to see a decline in his BA. He never walks, so his OBP will suffer as well.

He might end up this year with numbers that might translate to an average season. However, it is very likely that he will stink again in the first half next year. If that happens, the Cubs will be right where they are now, or close to it, regardless of the other moves they make. You simply cannot have a .250 OBP in the leadoff spot and expect to score any runs.

If the Cubs bring him back, and he hits like he has for the past 3 weeks, great. In my opinion, though, there is a much higher likelihood that he hits like he did the entire first half. That prospect is much too risky for me, even when I don't know what the alternative is.

CubColtPacer · July 24, 2006

My problem with Pierre is that his production is so heavily average-driven...which is troubling considering how few line drives he hits. I believe he leads the league in IF hits, meaning the majority of his game is based on defensive mistakes, pitch placement, and other factors that can heavily contribute to inconsistency. Couple that with the fact that he's getting older and will start losing a step or two, I question the value of re-signing him, especially as a leadoff hitter.

The minors don't currently have guys who could take over immediately. Pie likely won't be ready on Opening Day 2007. Walker is really fast, but I question how ready he is, as well. I'm really leery of Miguel Negron.

Best option would be to shift Jock to CF and acquire a RF, imo. The Cubs will lose some range, but I think it would be better for the offense to pick up a guy like Abreu, Lee, or whomever for RF.

Let some one else convince themselves of Pierre's worth and overpay for him.

I am a subscriber to this theory, especially about losing a step from home to first. I can't tell you how many times I've seen him hit a slow roller to the left side of the infield, expect him to beat it out, and watch him get thrown out. If he's lost a step, he is overwhelmingly likely to continue to see a decline in his BA. He never walks, so his OBP will suffer as well.

He might end up this year with numbers that might translate to an average season. However, it is very likely that he will stink again in the first half next year. If that happens, the Cubs will be right where they are now, or close to it, regardless of the other moves they make. You simply cannot have a .250 OBP in the leadoff spot and expect to score any runs.

If the Cubs bring him back, and he hits like he has for the past 3 weeks, great. In my opinion, though, there is a much higher likelihood that he hits like he did the entire first half. That prospect is much too risky for me, even when I don't know what the alternative is.

Why is it far more likely that he hits the way he hit some of the first half though? He had 2 horrible months-it's not a pattern for him, so why would you expect him to be that bad next year?

His OBP my month

April:.287

May: .267

June: .352

July: .390

He certainly has been hitting better for more than 3 weeks now. Could he do his June and July production for all of next year? I don't know, but I don't see how that is any less likely then for him to bat like he did in April and May.

soapy · July 24, 2006

Why is it far more likely that he hits the way he hit some of the first half though? He had 2 horrible months-it's not a pattern for him, so why would you expect him to be that bad next year?
His OBP my month
April:.287
May: .267
June: .352
July: .390

He certainly has been hitting better for more than 3 weeks now. Could he do his June and July production for all of next year? I don't know, but I don't see how that is any less likely then for him to bat like he did in April and May.

But he was terrible in 2005 also:

.276/.326/.354

goonys evil twin · July 24, 2006

Why is it far more likely that he hits the way he hit some of the first half though? He had 2 horrible months-it's not a pattern for him, so why would you expect him to be that bad next year?
His OBP my month

Decline is to a pattern for him. He's getting worse and worse, because he's a one trick pony whose one trick isn't good enough to carry him into his 30's.

fromthestretch · July 24, 2006

Why is it far more likely that he hits the way he hit some of the first half though? He had 2 horrible months-it's not a pattern for him, so why would you expect him to be that bad next year?
His OBP my month
April:.287
May: .267
June: .352
July: .390

He certainly has been hitting better for more than 3 weeks now. Could he do his June and July production for all of next year? I don't know, but I don't see how that is any less likely then for him to bat like he did in April and May.

What's far more likely is that he'll end up pretty much right where he's at now. For the past year and a half, he's a mid-.270s hitter with a .320-ish OBP. That's not acceptable. He was also pretty lousy in 2002 (in Colorado of all places), as well, so it's not like this is a freak occurance.

Hacking Out Machine · July 24, 2006

My problem with Pierre is that his production is so heavily average-driven...which is troubling considering how few line drives he hits. I believe he leads the league in IF hits, meaning the majority of his game is based on defensive mistakes, pitch placement, and other factors that can heavily contribute to inconsistency. Couple that with the fact that he's getting older and will start losing a step or two, I question the value of re-signing him, especially as a leadoff hitter.

The minors don't currently have guys who could take over immediately. Pie likely won't be ready on Opening Day 2007. Walker is really fast, but I question how ready he is, as well. I'm really leery of Miguel Negron.

Best option would be to shift Jock to CF and acquire a RF, imo. The Cubs will lose some range, but I think it would be better for the offense to pick up a guy like Abreu, Lee, or whomever for RF.

Let some one else convince themselves of Pierre's worth and overpay for him.

I am a subscriber to this theory, especially about losing a step from home to first. I can't tell you how many times I've seen him hit a slow roller to the left side of the infield, expect him to beat it out, and watch him get thrown out. If he's lost a step, he is overwhelmingly likely to continue to see a decline in his BA. He never walks, so his OBP will suffer as well.

He might end up this year with numbers that might translate to an average season. However, it is very likely that he will stink again in the first half next year. If that happens, the Cubs will be right where they are now, or close to it, regardless of the other moves they make. You simply cannot have a .250 OBP in the leadoff spot and expect to score any runs.

If the Cubs bring him back, and he hits like he has for the past 3 weeks, great. In my opinion, though, there is a much higher likelihood that he hits like he did the entire first half. That prospect is much too risky for me, even when I don't know what the alternative is.

Why is it far more likely that he hits the way he hit some of the first half though? He had 2 horrible months-it's not a pattern for him, so why would you expect him to be that bad next year?
His OBP my month
April:.287
May: .267
June: .352
July: .390

He certainly has been hitting better for more than 3 weeks now. Could he do his June and July production for all of next year? I don't know, but I don't see how that is any less likely then for him to bat like he did in April and May.

He himself said the weather had a big effect, which I think is a terrible excuse, but even if it's true, it'll be cold again next year. Secondly, he's had a nice string where his myriad of ground balls are finding holes. As was mentioned, his OBP is a direct effect of his BA, since he seldom walks. If you are relying on a random stat like BABIP as the primary driver of your OBP, you're going to see some bad stretches, especially if you're not beating out the infield hits you used to. He used to be impossible to throw out on any slow roller. That's why he was a .300 career hitter. It isn't that way anymore. He has to hit .310-.320 to be a truly effective leadoff man, and I just don't think he'll do that.

Edited July 24, 2006 by Hacking Out Machine

CubColtPacer · July 24, 2006

My problem with Pierre is that his production is so heavily average-driven...which is troubling considering how few line drives he hits. I believe he leads the league in IF hits, meaning the majority of his game is based on defensive mistakes, pitch placement, and other factors that can heavily contribute to inconsistency. Couple that with the fact that he's getting older and will start losing a step or two, I question the value of re-signing him, especially as a leadoff hitter.

The minors don't currently have guys who could take over immediately. Pie likely won't be ready on Opening Day 2007. Walker is really fast, but I question how ready he is, as well. I'm really leery of Miguel Negron.

Best option would be to shift Jock to CF and acquire a RF, imo. The Cubs will lose some range, but I think it would be better for the offense to pick up a guy like Abreu, Lee, or whomever for RF.

Let some one else convince themselves of Pierre's worth and overpay for him.

I am a subscriber to this theory, especially about losing a step from home to first. I can't tell you how many times I've seen him hit a slow roller to the left side of the infield, expect him to beat it out, and watch him get thrown out. If he's lost a step, he is overwhelmingly likely to continue to see a decline in his BA. He never walks, so his OBP will suffer as well.

He might end up this year with numbers that might translate to an average season. However, it is very likely that he will stink again in the first half next year. If that happens, the Cubs will be right where they are now, or close to it, regardless of the other moves they make. You simply cannot have a .250 OBP in the leadoff spot and expect to score any runs.

If the Cubs bring him back, and he hits like he has for the past 3 weeks, great. In my opinion, though, there is a much higher likelihood that he hits like he did the entire first half. That prospect is much too risky for me, even when I don't know what the alternative is.

Why is it far more likely that he hits the way he hit some of the first half though? He had 2 horrible months-it's not a pattern for him, so why would you expect him to be that bad next year?
His OBP my month
April:.287
May: .267
June: .352
July: .390

He certainly has been hitting better for more than 3 weeks now. Could he do his June and July production for all of next year? I don't know, but I don't see how that is any less likely then for him to bat like he did in April and May.

He himself said the weather had a big effect, which I think is a terrible excuse, but even if it's true, it'll be cold again next year. Secondly, he's had a nice string where his myriad of ground balls are finding holes. As was mentioned, his OBP is a direct effect of his BA, since he seldom walks. If you are relying on a random stat like BABIP as the primary driver of your OBP, you're going to see some bad stretches, especially if you're not beating out enough infield hits you used to.

True, but in his career, he's always had at least one terrible month a season and still posted a .360-.370 OBP in 2003-2004. I guess I'm just waiting to see if he posts another terrible month or not. If his next two months are like his last, and his OBP goes up to .340-.350 range, then it becomes a tougher decision I think. Now if we can trade him for value right now for somebody looking to make a run with his hot bat, then I'm all for that as well.

Ding Dong Johnson · July 24, 2006

True, but in his career, he's always had at least one terrible month a season and still posted a .360-.370 OBP in 2003-2004. I guess I'm just waiting to see if he posts another terrible month or not. If his next two months are like his last, and his OBP goes up to .340-.350 range, then it becomes a tougher decision I think. Now if we can trade him for value right now for somebody looking to make a run with his hot bat, then I'm all for that as well.

I don't want a guy who will go into a funk for a month. The guy who cannot get on base without hitting himself on. I also expect more out of my leadoff batter than stringing together a solid run to get his OBP up to 340.

Hacking Out Machine · July 25, 2006

True, but in his career, he's always had at least one terrible month a season and still posted a .360-.370 OBP in 2003-2004. I guess I'm just waiting to see if he posts another terrible month or not. If his next two months are like his last, and his OBP goes up to .340-.350 range, then it becomes a tougher decision I think. Now if we can trade him for value right now for somebody looking to make a run with his hot bat, then I'm all for that as well.

I keep trying to make the point that his prior career numbers included a time when he was beating out routine grounders to the infield. Again, he is not doing that anymore, so you are not talking about the same guy. He has regressed. I don't want to hear about what he has done in the past because he had wheels then that he doesn't have now. He won't post a .360-.370 OBP unless he hits .330. Without the ability to beat out as many infield hits as he used to, he's got no chance of doing that.

CubColtPacer · July 25, 2006

True, but in his career, he's always had at least one terrible month a season and still posted a .360-.370 OBP in 2003-2004. I guess I'm just waiting to see if he posts another terrible month or not. If his next two months are like his last, and his OBP goes up to .340-.350 range, then it becomes a tougher decision I think. Now if we can trade him for value right now for somebody looking to make a run with his hot bat, then I'm all for that as well.

I keep trying to make the point that his prior career numbers included a time when he was beating out routine grounders to the infield. Again, he is not doing that anymore, so you are not talking about the same guy. He has regressed. I don't want to hear about what he has done in the past because he had wheels then that he doesn't have now. He won't post a .360-.370 OBP unless he hits .330. Without the ability to beat out as many infield hits as he used to, he's got no chance of doing that.

The question is, do you know if he is beating out many less hits? You mentioned that as an observation-but has that really been a big factor? It might be-I don't know, but I don't really know, because I didn't watch all the Marlins games in the past to know how many infield hits he really had.

bhogg · July 25, 2006

probably a terrible example, but last year, DLee hit 99 points worse in avg, 72 points worse in obp, and 152 points worse in SLG in the second half.

Crap happens. . . .season is long. . . blah blah blah.

No doubt Pierre was terrible to start out, but sometimes that happens when switching teams (sometimes it doesn't). Still, you gotta give the guy credit for picking it up lately.

What drives me nuts is that even with Pierre's surge, we're not scoring runs much better than before.

Using the same time split as I had for Pierre's production......
Dates               R     R/G
04/03 - 05/18     151    3.78
05/19 - 07/23     245    4.30
Wow, it sure seemed as though we weren't doing much better. Were the Cubs' W/L figures better or worse in those stretches?
Dates                W     L     Pct
04/03 - 05/18       17    23    .425
05/19 - 07/23       20    37    .351
One good reason for this disparity is.......
CUBS                 IP    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    PC  BB/9   K/9  HR/9  WHIP   ERA
04/03 - 05/18     351.0  313  193  179  173  305   48  5923  4.44  7.82  1.23  1.38  4.59
05/19 - 07/23     499.7  515  308  280  231  419   82  8552  4.16  7.55  1.48  1.49  5.04

04/03 - 07/23     850.7  828  501  459  404  724  130 14475  4.27  7.66  1.38  1.45  4.86

So Pierre needs to pitch better :)

UncleDon · July 25, 2006

I wouldn't give Pierre any kind of long term deal, but they should at least offer him arbitration. If he signed for a year, Pie might be ready to replace him. If someone else gives him the long term deal, at least we would get a couple of draft picks and free up money to sign a replacement. Maybe the Cubs could get a power bat for center and stick Pierre's arm in left like the Sox did with Podsednik. I would trade Dempster and someone like Harvey for someone's ready to play prospect.

dvdd127 · July 25, 2006

I wouldn't give Pierre any kind of long term deal, but they should at least offer him arbitration. If he signed for a year, Pie might be ready to replace him. If someone else gives him the long term deal, at least we would get a couple of draft picks and free up money to sign a replacement. Maybe the Cubs could get a power bat for center and stick Pierre's arm in left like the Sox did with Podsednik. I would trade Dempster and someone like Harvey for someone's ready to play prospect.

umm... who would our closer be then???

goonys evil twin · July 25, 2006

I wouldn't give Pierre any kind of long term deal, but they should at least offer him arbitration. If he signed for a year, Pie might be ready to replace him. If someone else gives him the long term deal, at least we would get a couple of draft picks and free up money to sign a replacement. Maybe the Cubs could get a power bat for center and stick Pierre's arm in left like the Sox did with Podsednik. I would trade Dempster and someone like Harvey for someone's ready to play prospect.
umm... who would our closer be then???

Howry, a better pitcher than Dempster.

dvdd127 · July 25, 2006

I wouldn't give Pierre any kind of long term deal, but they should at least offer him arbitration. If he signed for a year, Pie might be ready to replace him. If someone else gives him the long term deal, at least we would get a couple of draft picks and free up money to sign a replacement. Maybe the Cubs could get a power bat for center and stick Pierre's arm in left like the Sox did with Podsednik. I would trade Dempster and someone like Harvey for someone's ready to play prospect.
umm... who would our closer be then???

Howry, a better pitcher than Dempster.

Howry is not a closer.... you would be setting him up to fail.. just like you did with Latoya Hawkins

Mizzou · July 25, 2006

I wouldn't give Pierre any kind of long term deal, but they should at least offer him arbitration. If he signed for a year, Pie might be ready to replace him. If someone else gives him the long term deal, at least we would get a couple of draft picks and free up money to sign a replacement. Maybe the Cubs could get a power bat for center and stick Pierre's arm in left like the Sox did with Podsednik. I would trade Dempster and someone like Harvey for someone's ready to play prospect.
umm... who would our closer be then???

Howry, a better pitcher than Dempster.
Howry is not a closer.... you would be setting him up to fail.. just like you did with Latoya Hawkins

Has Howry ever been a closer? Just curious.

fromthestretch · July 25, 2006

I wouldn't give Pierre any kind of long term deal, but they should at least offer him arbitration. If he signed for a year, Pie might be ready to replace him. If someone else gives him the long term deal, at least we would get a couple of draft picks and free up money to sign a replacement. Maybe the Cubs could get a power bat for center and stick Pierre's arm in left like the Sox did with Podsednik. I would trade Dempster and someone like Harvey for someone's ready to play prospect.
umm... who would our closer be then???

Howry, a better pitcher than Dempster.
Howry is not a closer.... you would be setting him up to fail.. just like you did with Latoya Hawkins

Not every pitcher is the same. He could very well succeed in that role. There's absolutely no proof he would have the same struggles as Hawkins.

Besides, Howry isn't the only option. Throw Wuertz out there. It's not like there are going to be a ton of save opportunities, and even if there are, it's not like the Cubs are pushing for a playoff spot.

Hell, use a closer by committee if you have to. Eyre, Howry, and Wuertz are all capable of getting people out.

fromthestretch · July 25, 2006

I wouldn't give Pierre any kind of long term deal, but they should at least offer him arbitration. If he signed for a year, Pie might be ready to replace him. If someone else gives him the long term deal, at least we would get a couple of draft picks and free up money to sign a replacement. Maybe the Cubs could get a power bat for center and stick Pierre's arm in left like the Sox did with Podsednik. I would trade Dempster and someone like Harvey for someone's ready to play prospect.
umm... who would our closer be then???

Howry, a better pitcher than Dempster.
Howry is not a closer.... you would be setting him up to fail.. just like you did with Latoya Hawkins
Has Howry ever been a closer? Just curious.

Yep. He was for a year with the White Sox in 1999.

dvdd127 · July 25, 2006

Not every pitcher is the same. He could very well succeed in that role. There's absolutely no proof he would have the same struggles as Hawkins.

Besides, Howry isn't the only option. Throw Wuertz out there. It's not like there are going to be a ton of save opportunities, and even if there are, it's not like the Cubs are pushing for a playoff spot.

Hell, use a closer by committee if you have to. Eyre, Howry, and Wuertz are all capable of getting people out.

I see what your saying now. You would only do this trade now... and not necissarily in the offseason.

goonys evil twin · July 25, 2006

Not every pitcher is the same. He could very well succeed in that role. There's absolutely no proof he would have the same struggles as Hawkins.

Besides, Howry isn't the only option. Throw Wuertz out there. It's not like there are going to be a ton of save opportunities, and even if there are, it's not like the Cubs are pushing for a playoff spot.

Hell, use a closer by committee if you have to. Eyre, Howry, and Wuertz are all capable of getting people out.
I see what your saying now. You would only do this trade now... and not necissarily in the offseason.

I would trade Dempster anytime, anywhere for a solid return. Non elite closers come and go. And Dempster is far from elite. The idea that he did it well one year and therefore can never be replaced is misguided.

Magnetic Curses · July 25, 2006

if i traded howry or dempster, i would at least make an attempt to bring wood back as a bullpen arm.

Pierre?

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