Juan Pierre extension watch

[KaiserCesar]

I understand what CubColtPacer is saying, but I think that speed gets more valuable on a team with low SLG rather than low OBP. Reason for that is that with a low SLG, each hit (or lack thereof) advances baserunners a lesser amount of bases. Therefore, the extra base is worth a lot more since there is a lesser likelihood of a double/homer where scoring is pretty easy for most baserunners. Also, the SB % necessary for positive run creation should also be less since that out is worth less for a bad offensive team (but this also factors in OBP).

 

Exactly, thank you I forgot to make that point. The fact that we are a bad slugging team only enhances our need to have somebody like Pierre. His speed becomes even more valuable on a team who is only able to score 1 run at a time. That is what I am saying about the low OBP team..they are not going to string enough hits together to score very often, so Pierre's speed creates the extra bases needed to at least drive him home some of the time. If Pierre is leading off, sometimes a hit behind him is not even needed. He can lead off, steal second, and proceed to home with 2 outs being recorded. For a team who can't get on base very well, and can't hit home runs, this ability to score with basically one hit can become very important.

 

Yeah, speed I agree speed is more valuable, but it is definitely more worthwhile (and cheaper) to try to improve OBP and SLG than to resign Pierre and get league average OBP. While his speed has more of an improvement on this Cubs team, the "need" is really what makes the speed so valuable, the otherwise futile offense.

[CubColtPacer]

Exactly, thank you I forgot to make that point. The fact that we are a bad slugging team only enhances our need to have somebody like Pierre.

 

Juan Pierre has been horrible this year, a big reason why the offense stunk. There never was any kind of a "need" for him, and therefore, there can be nothing that enhances that need.

 

What if he makes it to .295/.335 this year? Is that still a horrible year? And yes, he could easily make that this year-he's a career .320 average after the break, he raised his batting average 7 points last night, and he only has 17 points to go. Sure, it's not the best OBP in the league, or anywhere close. What I'm saying though that on this team, his speed matters than it would on just about any team on the league. We can only score 1 run at a time most of the time, and Pierre is very good at creating run opportunities with his work on the bases.

 

I would say 335 from my leadoff hitter would be a horrible season.

 

So on a good offense, what do you think the OBP for leadoff hitters would be? If 335 is horrible, what is decent and what is good?

[CUBZ99]

Exactly, thank you I forgot to make that point. The fact that we are a bad slugging team only enhances our need to have somebody like Pierre.

 

Juan Pierre has been horrible this year, a big reason why the offense stunk. There never was any kind of a "need" for him, and therefore, there can be nothing that enhances that need.

 

Pierre was terrible in April and May. His June OBP of .352 and July OBP of .439 are far from horrible and the year is not over yet, so it is possible that he will finish with a season OBP near his career average. (.350ish).

 

Pierre is not the biggest reason the Cubs offense has struggled this year. It is more of a group effort.

[CubColtPacer]

What I'm saying though that on this team, his speed matters than it would on just about any team on the league. We can only score 1 run at a time most of the time, and Pierre is very good at creating run opportunities with his work on the bases.

 

Except he doesn't create run opportunities especially well and his lack of OBP is what matters most, much moreso than his speed. His speed does not offset his lack of OBP.

 

Then quantify it. How many SB's, and speed does it take to make up for how much OBP lost? What would be the point where his speed would offset the lack of OBP?

[Ding Dong Johnson]

What I'm saying though that on this team, his speed matters than it would on just about any team on the league. We can only score 1 run at a time most of the time, and Pierre is very good at creating run opportunities with his work on the bases.

 

Except he doesn't create run opportunities especially well and his lack of OBP is what matters most, much moreso than his speed. His speed does not offset his lack of OBP.

 

Then quantify it. How many SB's, and speed does it take to make up for how much OBP lost? What would be the point where his speed would offset the lack of OBP?

 

No offense, but it's your argument to prove.

[CubColtPacer]

I understand what CubColtPacer is saying, but I think that speed gets more valuable on a team with low SLG rather than low OBP. Reason for that is that with a low SLG, each hit (or lack thereof) advances baserunners a lesser amount of bases. Therefore, the extra base is worth a lot more since there is a lesser likelihood of a double/homer where scoring is pretty easy for most baserunners. Also, the SB % necessary for positive run creation should also be less since that out is worth less for a bad offensive team (but this also factors in OBP).

 

Exactly, thank you I forgot to make that point. The fact that we are a bad slugging team only enhances our need to have somebody like Pierre. His speed becomes even more valuable on a team who is only able to score 1 run at a time. That is what I am saying about the low OBP team..they are not going to string enough hits together to score very often, so Pierre's speed creates the extra bases needed to at least drive him home some of the time. If Pierre is leading off, sometimes a hit behind him is not even needed. He can lead off, steal second, and proceed to home with 2 outs being recorded. For a team who can't get on base very well, and can't hit home runs, this ability to score with basically one hit can become very important.

Instead of trying to find a leadoff man who's a good fit for a team with crummy OBP and SLG wouldn't it be a more sound strategy to try to stop being a team with crummy OBP and SLG?

 

Of course it would, but I see that option as very unlikely. Therefore I assume that the majority of the team will remain intact before figuring out if to re-sign Pierre or not. If the rest of the team remains intact, which I think it mostly will, then Pierre should be re-signed because he is the best leadoff hitter for this offense.

[fromthestretch]

What I'm saying though that on this team, his speed matters than it would on just about any team on the league. We can only score 1 run at a time most of the time, and Pierre is very good at creating run opportunities with his work on the bases.

 

Except he doesn't create run opportunities especially well and his lack of OBP is what matters most, much moreso than his speed. His speed does not offset his lack of OBP.

 

Then quantify it. How many SB's, and speed does it take to make up for how much OBP lost? What would be the point where his speed would offset the lack of OBP?

 

It's not just stolen bases but also the success rate in a runner's attempts to steal a bag, take that extra base, etc.

 

Regardless of speed, I'd prefer to have a leadoff hitter that, at the very least, gets on base 35% of the time. That's the starting point.

[KaiserCesar]

What I'm saying though that on this team, his speed matters than it would on just about any team on the league. We can only score 1 run at a time most of the time, and Pierre is very good at creating run opportunities with his work on the bases.

 

Except he doesn't create run opportunities especially well and his lack of OBP is what matters most, much moreso than his speed. His speed does not offset his lack of OBP.

 

Then quantify it. How many SB's, and speed does it take to make up for how much OBP lost? What would be the point where his speed would offset the lack of OBP?

 

Pierre isn't an especially great basestealer, so I don't think he could make up that big of a difference with his speed. Also, if Pierre, .335 obp + speed, is equivalent to another guy, .360 obp + average speed, the guy with average speed is going to be paid a lot less due to the inflated market for speed and "leadoff men," so why waste money on Pierre.

[jjgman21]

hey guys, please see my latest post in Sulley's thread.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

So on a good offense, what do you think the OBP for leadoff hitters would be? If 335 is horrible, what is decent and what is good?

 

Whether the offense is good or bad, I would expect a minimum of 360 from the leadoff spot. A quick glance shows 60 guys doing that right now. There are 119 players over 335.

[frostwyrm]

Opposing baserunners constantly take extra bases off of Pierre's girlie arm, so Pierre has to steal just to get back the bases his arm gives away. He also gets caught way too often. I'd rather have Corey. When he steals a base it's not just a way to make up for what his arm gave away.

 

see my point in the other thread about using defense to bash one player, but discounting it when someone else tries to defend a different player.

 

Regardless, I still think it's worth mentioning that Pierre's supposedly greatest offensive asset -- his ability to take extra bases -- is exactly what his arm allows opponents to do. He's like a pickpocket who constantly has his own pocket picked.

[goonys evil twin]

Of course it would, but I see that option as very unlikely. Therefore I assume that the majority of the team will remain intact before figuring out if to re-sign Pierre or not. If the rest of the team remains intact, which I think it mostly will, then Pierre should be re-signed because he is the best leadoff hitter for this offense.

 

That is the most irrational basis for resigning a player I've ever heard. The lineup, including the leadoff man, sucks. So if the rest of the linup stays the same, let's keep the leadoff man. The best leadoff hitter for his offense would be the guy who gets on base most often, and hits for a decent number of XBH. Pierre's speed does not make him the best option. That is the faulty logic that Hendry and Baker used when destroying any chances for a good 2006, and that would only serve to destroy future teams.

[CubColtPacer]

What I'm saying though that on this team, his speed matters than it would on just about any team on the league. We can only score 1 run at a time most of the time, and Pierre is very good at creating run opportunities with his work on the bases.

 

Except he doesn't create run opportunities especially well and his lack of OBP is what matters most, much moreso than his speed. His speed does not offset his lack of OBP.

 

Then quantify it. How many SB's, and speed does it take to make up for how much OBP lost? What would be the point where his speed would offset the lack of OBP?

 

It's not just stolen bases but also the success rate in a runner's attempts to steal a bag, take that extra base, etc.

 

Regardless of speed, I'd prefer to have a leadoff hitter that, at the very least, gets on base 35% of the time. That's the starting point.

 

There are 8 players who have batted at least 100 at bats in the leadoff spot this year that have a .350 OBP or better. 8. That's your starting point? In fact, Jose Reyes only has a .357 OBP. Does that mean he is barely a decent leadoff hitter? Now that I look at the stats again, Pierre is probably going to get to a .340 OBP. If a .335 OBP from your leadoff hitter is horrible, and a .350-.360 is only decent, then I guess there are only 2 good leadoff men in the game.

[CubColtPacer]

So on a good offense, what do you think the OBP for leadoff hitters would be? If 335 is horrible, what is decent and what is good?

 

Whether the offense is good or bad, I would expect a minimum of 360 from the leadoff spot. A quick glance shows 60 guys doing that right now. There are 119 players over 335.

 

How many of those guys bat leadoff consistently? 2? 3?

[frostwyrm]

Of course it would, but I see that option as very unlikely. Therefore I assume that the majority of the team will remain intact before figuring out if to re-sign Pierre or not. If the rest of the team remains intact, which I think it mostly will, then Pierre should be re-signed because he is the best leadoff hitter for this offense.

 

According to my math:

 

crappy OBP + crappy SLG = crappy offense

 

 

 

 

According to your math:

 

crappy OBP + crappy SLG + the proper leadoff man = good offense

[CubColtPacer]

Of course it would, but I see that option as very unlikely. Therefore I assume that the majority of the team will remain intact before figuring out if to re-sign Pierre or not. If the rest of the team remains intact, which I think it mostly will, then Pierre should be re-signed because he is the best leadoff hitter for this offense.

 

According to my math:

 

crappy OBP + crappy SLG = crappy offense

 

 

 

 

According to your math:

 

crappy OBP + crappy SLG + the proper leadoff man = good offense

 

No, just that he is the best thing for the offense. That does not mean it makes the offense good, just better than it was before.

[CubinNY]

So on a good offense, what do you think the OBP for leadoff hitters would be? If 335 is horrible, what is decent and what is good?

 

Whether the offense is good or bad, I would expect a minimum of 360 from the leadoff spot. A quick glance shows 60 guys doing that right now. There are 119 players over 335.

 

How many of those guys bat leadoff consistently? 2? 3?

 

The position that the manager bats a hitter in is irrelevent to the discussion. See, that's the problem with the Cubs and the problem with your argument. There is no such thing as a leadoff batter. There are only position players.

 

That is what pissed me off so much this off-season. Hendry went looking for a "lead-off" man when he should have been looking for the best player available to play CF after he gave away Patterson.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

So on a good offense, what do you think the OBP for leadoff hitters would be? If 335 is horrible, what is decent and what is good?

 

Whether the offense is good or bad, I would expect a minimum of 360 from the leadoff spot. A quick glance shows 60 guys doing that right now. There are 119 players over 335.

 

How many of those guys bat leadoff consistently? 2? 3?

 

That number is a lot lower than it should be because things like speed are overvalued. Pierre should not have been batting leadoff simply because he's faster than say Todd Walker. When Juan was toiling in the 270 OBP range and Walker and Murton were both in the 370 range, they should have occupied the top 2 spots in the lineup.

[CubColtPacer]

So on a good offense, what do you think the OBP for leadoff hitters would be? If 335 is horrible, what is decent and what is good?

 

Whether the offense is good or bad, I would expect a minimum of 360 from the leadoff spot. A quick glance shows 60 guys doing that right now. There are 119 players over 335.

 

How many of those guys bat leadoff consistently? 2? 3?

 

The position that the manager bats a hitter in is irrelevent to the discussion. See, that's the problem with the Cubs and the problem with your argument. There is no such thing as a leadoff batter. There are only position players.

 

That is what pissed me off so much this off-season. Hendry went looking for a "lead-off" man when he should have been looking for the best player available to play CF after he gave away Patterson.

 

No, because a large problem with his OBP is that he is a leadoff hitter. The other people have set a standard of at least .350, or at least .360. If that was the standard for all position players, it wouldn't be possible. There are not enough players around that have that high of an OBP to make that possible. In fact, he said there were 119 players with a .335 or better, so that means that if they were spread out evenly, each team would have 4 of its regulars have less than a .335 OBP.

[fromthestretch]

It's not just stolen bases but also the success rate in a runner's attempts to steal a bag, take that extra base, etc.

 

Regardless of speed, I'd prefer to have a leadoff hitter that, at the very least, gets on base 35% of the time. That's the starting point.

 

There are 8 players who have batted at least 100 at bats in the leadoff spot this year that have a .350 OBP or better. 8. That's your starting point? In fact, Jose Reyes only has a .357 OBP. Does that mean he is barely a decent leadoff hitter? Now that I look at the stats again, Pierre is probably going to get to a .340 OBP. If a .335 OBP from your leadoff hitter is horrible, and a .350-.360 is only decent, then I guess there are only 2 good leadoff men in the game.

 

The fact that a lot of other teams have medicrity out of their leadoff spot doesn't mean the Cubs should settle for it.

 

I'd also be curious to know how many players with over .350 OBPs aren't batting leadoff and why. Obviously, there are middle-of-the-order types that have OBPs well over that. But there are probably some guys batting second for some teams that have a better OBP than their leadoff hitter (i.e. Todd Walker).

 

Some teams probably have players that should be batting leadoff but aren't. Take a look at the Nationals. Jose Vidro has spent most of the season splitting time between the #2 and #3 spots in the order, while Soriano leads off. To his credit, Soriano has a respectable OBP this year, but I'd be inclined to bat Vidro first, with Soriano somewhere in the middle of the order. Put his power to use when people are on base in front of him.

[CubColtPacer]

So on a good offense, what do you think the OBP for leadoff hitters would be? If 335 is horrible, what is decent and what is good?

 

Whether the offense is good or bad, I would expect a minimum of 360 from the leadoff spot. A quick glance shows 60 guys doing that right now. There are 119 players over 335.

 

How many of those guys bat leadoff consistently? 2? 3?

 

That number is a lot lower than it should be because things like speed are overvalued. Pierre should not have been batting leadoff simply because he's faster than say Todd Walker. When Juan was toiling in the 270 OBP range and Walker and Murton were both in the 370 range, they should have occupied the top 2 spots in the lineup.

 

You say speed is overvalued. So how much value do you think people give it, and how much value do you give it? It's your statement-I'm just asking you to explain it.

[CubColtPacer]

It's not just stolen bases but also the success rate in a runner's attempts to steal a bag, take that extra base, etc.

 

Regardless of speed, I'd prefer to have a leadoff hitter that, at the very least, gets on base 35% of the time. That's the starting point.

 

There are 8 players who have batted at least 100 at bats in the leadoff spot this year that have a .350 OBP or better. 8. That's your starting point? In fact, Jose Reyes only has a .357 OBP. Does that mean he is barely a decent leadoff hitter? Now that I look at the stats again, Pierre is probably going to get to a .340 OBP. If a .335 OBP from your leadoff hitter is horrible, and a .350-.360 is only decent, then I guess there are only 2 good leadoff men in the game.

 

The fact that a lot of other teams have medicrity out of their leadoff spot doesn't mean the Cubs should settle for it.

 

I'd also be curious to know how many players with over .350 OBPs aren't batting leadoff and why. Obviously, there are middle-of-the-order types that have OBPs well over that. But there are probably some guys batting second for some teams that have a better OBP than their leadoff hitter (i.e. Todd Walker).

 

Some teams probably have players that should be batting leadoff but aren't. Take a look at the Nationals. Jose Vidro has spent most of the season splitting time between the #2 and #3 spots in the order, while Soriano leads off. To his credit, Soriano has a respectable OBP this year, but I'd be inclined to bat Vidro first, with Soriano somewhere in the middle of the order. Put his power to use when people are on base in front of him.

 

The funny thing is, Soriano has the best OBP leading off in the league of people who lead off most of the time-.378

[CubinNY]

So on a good offense, what do you think the OBP for leadoff hitters would be? If 335 is horrible, what is decent and what is good?

 

Whether the offense is good or bad, I would expect a minimum of 360 from the leadoff spot. A quick glance shows 60 guys doing that right now. There are 119 players over 335.

 

How many of those guys bat leadoff consistently? 2? 3?

 

The position that the manager bats a hitter in is irrelevent to the discussion. See, that's the problem with the Cubs and the problem with your argument. There is no such thing as a leadoff batter. There are only position players.

 

That is what pissed me off so much this off-season. Hendry went looking for a "lead-off" man when he should have been looking for the best player available to play CF after he gave away Patterson.

 

No, because a large problem with his OBP is that he is a leadoff hitter.

 

Although that may be a problem for Slappy, it's the manager and GM's fault for signing a guy to bat leadoff and keeping him in that spot when he wasn't getting on base simply because he has historically batted lead-off.

 

Pierre is a one tool player, his entire game is dependent on his BABIP. I don't want a guy like that on the Cubs unless his name is Vlad or Ichiro.

[frostwyrm]

Of course it would, but I see that option as very unlikely. Therefore I assume that the majority of the team will remain intact before figuring out if to re-sign Pierre or not. If the rest of the team remains intact, which I think it mostly will, then Pierre should be re-signed because he is the best leadoff hitter for this offense.

 

According to my math:

 

crappy OBP + crappy SLG = crappy offense

 

 

 

 

According to your math:

 

crappy OBP + crappy SLG + the proper leadoff man = good offense

 

No, just that he is the best thing for the offense. That does not mean it makes the offense good, just better than it was before.

So we should just accept crappiness of OBP and SLG as inevitable and sign a leadoff man with that in mind, the aim being to build a less sucky but nonetheless bad offense?

[fromthestretch]

No, because a large problem with his OBP is that he is a leadoff hitter. The other people have set a standard of at least .350, or at least .360. If that was the standard for all position players, it wouldn't be possible. There are not enough players around that have that high of an OBP to make that possible. In fact, he said there were 119 players with a .335 or better, so that means that if they were spread out evenly, each team would have 4 of its regulars have less than a .335 OBP.

 

Then, depending on what those four players bring to the table as far as slugging, mix them in the 4-8 spots (4-9 if you're in the AL) in the order.

 

Nobody expects every player to put up a .350 OBP. However, the leadoff hitter is the guy batting ahead of the heart of the order. Even if he's not leading off an inning, he's still batting in front of the guys that you pay to drive in runs. Might as well put a guy that gets on base in that spot to increase your chances of having someone on when the big hitters come up.