Draft Analysis of picks 1-10 is up

[T2E]

I hope you enjoy.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Great stuff as always T2E, I've been looking forward to these articles since the draft.

[texascub]

Great stuff T2E, I do have one question though; isn't Lansford's dad's name Carney, not Casey?

[Outshined_One]

Thanks T2E!

[craig]

Those were some nice recaps of the info available about these guys. I hadn't gotten much/any details on Camp or Huseby before.

 

The reviews are naturally rather negative as regards Colvin, Lansford, and Clevenger, all of whom profile as guys who'll need to hit, since they don't have signature power/speed/arm to make it as a batless Bynum type.

 

Question: I've seen several allusions to Clevenger playing 3B. Not fast/rangy enough for SS probably, but then the HR-limitations seem a concern at 3rd. As a hitter, he'd seem to profile a lot better at 2nd, and obviously the defensive norms at 2nd are not so high as at SS. Is it possible that the Cubs see him as having enough range/defense to make it at 2nd? And when they are drafting him, it isn't with the question being: can he hit with enough power to play 3rd, or can he still defend SS? But perhaps the hinge question is: Can he handle 2B? Not sure, but good enough chance, and if the answer is yes we've got a pretty nice value?

 

Anyway, as to the hitting thing: I think in past the cubs have tended toward standout-tool guys, and hope they learn how to hit. Some of these players seem more like no-standout-tool, drafted because they look like they'll hit for average, but if they don't stick a fork in. I'm not sure that's so bad, especiallyin 6th/7th rounds.

 

In part because I think game power, average, and eye are all connected. In particular, BP power doesn't hit many game HR's unless you can hit the ball on the nose. In my view, the majority of decent power-producers are hitters first. Clevenger I've got my doubts. But Lansford, I'd think that if he really does turn out to be a true-blue hitter, if he's hitting the ball on the nose all the time and has the balance/stroke to cover the whole strike zone etc., I'd guess that in time some HR's will come with the package. If he isn't that good a hitter to start with, probably HR's won't be there either. But if he turns out to be the kind of guy who could hit .280+ in the majors, my guess is that some of those on-the-nose contacts will go over the wall, and I'd guess he could have 15+ HR power.

 

Not to belabor, but it isn't Sing or Harvey or Aram leading the organization in HR's, even though they have way, way more power. It's Jake Fox, who's hitting the ball on the nose pretty often. And some of them go out.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Thanks, T2E!

[RonnieWooWooSanto]

I'm confused(not a rare thing) is there a link to the analysis somewhere that I'm missing?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I'm confused(not a rare thing) is there a link to the analysis somewhere that I'm missing?

 

It's on the front page ( http://www.northsidebaseball.com ).

 

Here ya go:

 

First 5 Picks

Next 5 Picks

[RonnieWooWooSanto]

I'm confused(not a rare thing) is there a link to the analysis somewhere that I'm missing?

 

It's on the front page ( http://www.northsidebaseball.com ).

 

Here ya go:

 

First 5 Picks

Next 5 Picks

 

Thanks!

[T2E]

Those were some nice recaps of the info available about these guys. I hadn't gotten much/any details on Camp or Huseby before.

 

The reviews are naturally rather negative as regards Colvin, Lansford, and Clevenger, all of whom profile as guys who'll need to hit, since they don't have signature power/speed/arm to make it as a batless Bynum type.

 

Question: I've seen several allusions to Clevenger playing 3B. Not fast/rangy enough for SS probably, but then the HR-limitations seem a concern at 3rd. As a hitter, he'd seem to profile a lot better at 2nd, and obviously the defensive norms at 2nd are not so high as at SS. Is it possible that the Cubs see him as having enough range/defense to make it at 2nd? And when they are drafting him, it isn't with the question being: can he hit with enough power to play 3rd, or can he still defend SS? But perhaps the hinge question is: Can he handle 2B? Not sure, but good enough chance, and if the answer is yes we've got a pretty nice value?

 

Anyway, as to the hitting thing: I think in past the cubs have tended toward standout-tool guys, and hope they learn how to hit. Some of these players seem more like no-standout-tool, drafted because they look like they'll hit for average, but if they don't stick a fork in. I'm not sure that's so bad, especiallyin 6th/7th rounds.

 

In part because I think game power, average, and eye are all connected. In particular, BP power doesn't hit many game HR's unless you can hit the ball on the nose. In my view, the majority of decent power-producers are hitters first. Clevenger I've got my doubts. But Lansford, I'd think that if he really does turn out to be a true-blue hitter, if he's hitting the ball on the nose all the time and has the balance/stroke to cover the whole strike zone etc., I'd guess that in time some HR's will come with the package. If he isn't that good a hitter to start with, probably HR's won't be there either. But if he turns out to be the kind of guy who could hit .280+ in the majors, my guess is that some of those on-the-nose contacts will go over the wall, and I'd guess he could have 15+ HR power.

 

Not to belabor, but it isn't Sing or Harvey or Aram leading the organization in HR's, even though they have way, way more power. It's Jake Fox, who's hitting the ball on the nose pretty often. And some of them go out.

 

Good point about Clevenger, we'll have to wait and see but if he can handle second, his chances are much better. The only thing I would wonder about is if his apparant lack of speed would keep him from having the necessary range at second.

 

With regards to average, it'd be interesting to see how that type of hitter (high average, few other tools) has faired at the pro level, without that, it's mostly guesswork. However, I feel like without others tools to fall back on (defense, speed, power, patience) it makes it harder for given prospects to advance, especially given how much average can vary. Lansford, for example, hit .276 the year before. Colvin's previous averages were .283 and .289. The hope is that they've turned it around, but it'd be nice to see a better track record of sucess.

 

For me, the most discouraging part of Lansford's stat line is his high K rates. 40 strikeouts in 236 at-bats is high espcially for a pro prospect who depends on a high average. That said, I don't think he's a terrible pick especially given that it was, as you point out, chosen in the sixth round.