Rich Hill Named PCL Pitcher of the Week

[craig]

I agree with that logic. But the "if" depends on the premise, that there was nothing wrong other than big-league adjustment, so that nothing could be gained in the minors. Wasted time.

 

The other hypothesis is that there was some other "whatever was wrong". Which manifested itself in 20HR/123 IP last year, and which manifested itself in less consistent work in his first five starts. (He's been 1.30 ERA in his last ten; he was 2.93 ERA during the five starts surrounding his big-league callup). It may be that he's solved something during his last ten starts. If so, not wasted time.

 

To me, the playoffs have been out of reach for some time. So what's best for Hill's development, whether that was in minors or majors, is the more important issue. It's not obvious that the last ten starts have been developmentally worthless. Indeed, to large degree it may be that ten starts with Alan Dunn is a lot more developmentally beneficial than ten starts with Baker and Rothschild!

 

Just to add another sunny side, in the dream world. Suppose I dream that Hill emerges as a big-time value starter, a guy who next year and beyond is a 16-8, 3.20-ERA workhorse. If so, this time at Iowa rather than under Dusty's guidance will have move free agency back a year and may perhaps even defer arbitraton by a year! That might end up being good news.

 

Add-on: I think it's imperitive that Hill get starts from here on out. If he looks solid, that will greatly impact the winter planning. If Hill, Marshall, and Marmol have all established themselves as competitive major league starters, then Hendry doesn't necessarily need to spend $24/3 on some 4.25-ERA rotation guy. Or, he'll have three valuable young pitchers to show in trade. Hill's trade value could be way higher with two solid months in the majors than all the WHIP's in PCL. Or, if Hill looks good, Hendry could afford to trade marshall, or Marmol, and use them as centerpieces for getting a good 2B or OF or 3rd starter.

 

As a Cub fan, of coursre I can imagine worst case: With Marshall now hurt, Hendry decides not to trade Maddux. (If you trade Maddux and Marshall does *not* come back, Dusty is stuck with not only Hill but also Rusch or Ryu/Guzman in rotation. Dusty would prefer to hold Maddux...) Then, Hill gets two or three starts, does not dominate, and in two weeks marshall returns. Oops! No room for Hill anymore, send him back to Iowa, or park him deep in long relief. That kind of scenario would again put Hill on the temporary pressure seat: you've got one 15-day DL to prove yourself, you better put up a 14K/1walk game or you're back at Iowa again. I'm not sure that kind of mindset is ideal!

[C.C.]

i don't think it's fair to equate hill's 8 starts (which have been spread out over two years and each one had do-or-die pressure attached to it) to 8 starts that make up 1/4 of a regular rotation guy's season.

 

if hill had started the year in the rotation and gone 0-7 (or whatever he is on his career) and posted a 9 era in his first eight starts, i'd think different of him than i do now.

 

Point blank in the 4 starts he looked over matched in the big leagues. He didn't look comfortable on the mound and showed no presence what-so-ever. It was a good move by the Cubs to let him work on whatever was wrong in AAA. Hopefully it pays off for him or maybe he's suited for the pen. Who knows?

 

but if the "whatever was wrong" was getting used to pitching in the big leagues, sending him down would not help him work on "whatever was wrong."

 

How do you know that? We can sit here all day and talk about Rich Hill being a dominate AAA pitcher, but the point is until he proves other wise he'll remain a dominate AAA pitcher. I think everyone is in agreement that he deserves a good chance on the ML level and It looks like he'll get that chance. If 4-5 starts from now his ERA is still in the 9.00 or worse then It'll be quite obvious you have to find other role for him.

[goonys evil twin]

To me, the playoffs have been out of reach for some time. So what's best for Hill's development, whether that was in minors or majors, is the more important issue. It's not obvious that the last ten starts have been developmentally worthless. Indeed, to large degree it may be that ten starts with Alan Dunn is a lot more developmentally beneficial than ten starts with Baker and Rothschild!

 

Just to add another sunny side, in the dream world. Suppose I dream that Hill emerges as a big-time value starter, a guy who next year and beyond is a 16-8, 3.20-ERA workhorse. If so, this time at Iowa rather than under Dusty's guidance will have move free agency back a year and may perhaps even defer arbitraton by a year! That might end up being good news.

 

That might be good news, but it's not a reflection of smart planning by the Cubs. It would only be an accidental by-product of their use of him. Hendry would have to realize that Larry and Dusty are bad for guys in order to purposefully implement such a plan, but at that point he'd have to fire them or else he's just sabotaging the others.

[abuck1220]

i don't think it's fair to equate hill's 8 starts (which have been spread out over two years and each one had do-or-die pressure attached to it) to 8 starts that make up 1/4 of a regular rotation guy's season.

 

if hill had started the year in the rotation and gone 0-7 (or whatever he is on his career) and posted a 9 era in his first eight starts, i'd think different of him than i do now.

 

Point blank in the 4 starts he looked over matched in the big leagues. He didn't look comfortable on the mound and showed no presence what-so-ever. It was a good move by the Cubs to let him work on whatever was wrong in AAA. Hopefully it pays off for him or maybe he's suited for the pen. Who knows?

 

but if the "whatever was wrong" was getting used to pitching in the big leagues, sending him down would not help him work on "whatever was wrong."

 

How do you know that?

 

i don't. that's why i said "if."

 

If 4-5 starts from now his ERA is still in the 9.00 or worse then It'll be quite obvious you have to find other role for him.

 

i disagree.

[JGalt73]

LHP Rich Hill, Triple-A Iowa (Cubs)

 

I don't know what to do with him at this point either. With the Cubs often desperate for pitching in each of the last two years, Hill has been given ample opportunity to contribute, and failed at every turn. With 14 major league games and eight starts under his belt, he has a 9.21 ERA in 43 innings, while allowing 48 hits and 32 walks. The most frustrating thing is that in the minor leagues, he's down right Koufax-esque. In his last ten starts, Hill is undefeated with a 1.30 ERA in 69.1 innings while allowing just 39 hits and punching out 95, including 14 on Saturday as part of 7.1 innings of one-hit shutout dominance. I do believe in the 4-A pitcher, but I find it hard to explain this wide a gap in performance using just skill definitions. Something else is going on here, and maybe Hill just needs a change of scenery. If I were one of the many teams calling general manager Jim Hendry over the next week about players on the Cubs' big league roster, I'd see if I could sweeten the pot a little to get Hill as well; maybe something would click and he'd figure things out. Either that, or he's the next Scott Ruffcorn.

[abuck1220]

LHP Rich Hill, Triple-A Iowa (Cubs)

 

I don't know what to do with him at this point either. With the Cubs often desperate for pitching in each of the last two years, Hill has been given ample opportunity to contribute, and failed at every turn. With 14 major league games and eight starts under his belt, he has a 9.21 ERA in 43 innings, while allowing 48 hits and 32 walks. The most frustrating thing is that in the minor leagues, he's down right Koufax-esque. In his last ten starts, Hill is undefeated with a 1.30 ERA in 69.1 innings while allowing just 39 hits and punching out 95, including 14 on Saturday as part of 7.1 innings of one-hit shutout dominance. I do believe in the 4-A pitcher, but I find it hard to explain this wide a gap in performance using just skill definitions. Something else is going on here, and maybe Hill just needs a change of scenery. If I were one of the many teams calling general manager Jim Hendry over the next week about players on the Cubs' big league roster, I'd see if I could sweeten the pot a little to get Hill as well; maybe something would click and he'd figure things out. Either that, or he's the next Scott Ruffcorn.

 

it's called sample size.

[abuck1220]

BA chimes in...

 

Cubs lefthander Rich Hill remains one of the tougher pitchers to decipher in baseball.

 

He has had big stuff—low 90s velocity and a big, hard curveball--since his college days at Michigan, though he only went 7-16, 4.93 during his Wolverines career. And he has been erratic in the minor leagues, entering 2006 with a .500 career record and an ERA near 4. But he also has dominated, with 491 career strikeouts in 351 career minor league innings.

 

Hill's inability to throw consistent strikes always has frustrated scouts, and it frustrated the Cubs last year, as he went just 0-2, 9.13 in 10 big league games. He struck out 21 but walked 17 in 24 innings with the Cubs and was actually worse in a four-start cameo this season, one that was bad even by 2006 Cubs standards. Hill walked 15 in 19 innings while losing all four starts.

 

So how come this guy is just amazing in Triple-A? Saturday night, Hill pitched seven one-hit innings for Iowa in a 3-0 victory against Memphis, striking out 14 and walking one. Of his 105 pitches, 71 were for strikes.

 

Iowa manager Mike Quade, up with the major league club as a third-base coach, told reporters Hill's biggest issue remains fastball command.

 

"He may point up the difference between the (Triple-A and major league) levels more than anybody," Quade told MLB.com. "Pitches that I believe he gets outs with there, he hasn't gotten outs with here. It may be because he's behind in the count."

 

Hill's victory improved him to 7-1, 1.80, and even with the big league detour, he leads the Pacific Coast League in two triple-crown categories: ERA and strikeouts. His 135 K's have come in just 100 innings, and he's allowed just 88 baserunners (62 hits, 5 HBPs, 21 walks). With the Cubs' dealing Scott Williamson to the Padres and losing lefty Sean Marshall to the disabled list (strained oblique), Hill could get another chance at the majors soon.

 

"Every game, you go out and go as hard as you can," Hill told the Des Moines Register after his victory Saturday. "Every game is an audition."

 

Enough with the auditions. Hill needs to perform on the big stage now.

[C.C.]

BA chimes in...

 

Cubs lefthander Rich Hill remains one of the tougher pitchers to decipher in baseball.

 

He has had big stuff—low 90s velocity and a big, hard curveball--since his college days at Michigan, though he only went 7-16, 4.93 during his Wolverines career. And he has been erratic in the minor leagues, entering 2006 with a .500 career record and an ERA near 4. But he also has dominated, with 491 career strikeouts in 351 career minor league innings.

 

Hill's inability to throw consistent strikes always has frustrated scouts, and it frustrated the Cubs last year, as he went just 0-2, 9.13 in 10 big league games. He struck out 21 but walked 17 in 24 innings with the Cubs and was actually worse in a four-start cameo this season, one that was bad even by 2006 Cubs standards. Hill walked 15 in 19 innings while losing all four starts.

 

So how come this guy is just amazing in Triple-A? Saturday night, Hill pitched seven one-hit innings for Iowa in a 3-0 victory against Memphis, striking out 14 and walking one. Of his 105 pitches, 71 were for strikes.

 

Iowa manager Mike Quade, up with the major league club as a third-base coach, told reporters Hill's biggest issue remains fastball command.

 

"He may point up the difference between the (Triple-A and major league) levels more than anybody," Quade told MLB.com. "Pitches that I believe he gets outs with there, he hasn't gotten outs with here. It may be because he's behind in the count."

 

Hill's victory improved him to 7-1, 1.80, and even with the big league detour, he leads the Pacific Coast League in two triple-crown categories: ERA and strikeouts. His 135 K's have come in just 100 innings, and he's allowed just 88 baserunners (62 hits, 5 HBPs, 21 walks). With the Cubs' dealing Scott Williamson to the Padres and losing lefty Sean Marshall to the disabled list (strained oblique), Hill could get another chance at the majors soon.

 

"Every game, you go out and go as hard as you can," Hill told the Des Moines Register after his victory Saturday. "Every game is an audition."

 

Enough with the auditions. Hill needs to perform on the big stage now.

 

I can hardly wait until Thursday. He's a mystery and you don't know what going to happen.

[Balsa]

I really hope he goes 7IP with 10 Ks and 1 BB. That would make my month.

[craig]

Yeah, it will be really interesting to see what happens. Unfortunately I fear some of the questions may circle in Hill's head too. (Will I fail again? What happens if I do? Can my Iowa stuff work up there, or do I need to change my fastballs somehow?)

 

I thought Quade's comments were kind of discouraging, awfully lukewarm. I expected the Iowa manager who's seen him thrive to say: "I know he's got the stuff, if he can just relax and throw his Iowa stuff at the NL, he'll do just fine." But pretty tepid.

[Jon]

Predictable script time.

 

If he does well after this start: "Leaving him in the minors was a good move. He needed to get more work done" - Dusty Baker, Jim Hendry, and/or Larry Rothschild

 

If he does poorly after this start: "The guy doesn't listen, talks too much, we're doing all we can with him, blah blah blah" - Dusty Baker, Jim Hendry, and/or Larry Rothschild

[abuck1220]

hill is #8 on BA's hot sheet. i certainly agree that he is an enigma.

 

Perhaps baseball's biggest enigma, Hill gives Jason Hirsh some competition in the PCL Pitcher of the Year race. Hill has not lost since May 25, and has a 1.30 ERA since in 69 innings since. Even more impressive, Hill has 95 strikeouts during that streak, a number he padded with two 14-strikeout starts on the week.

 

veal is in the team photo.