Can Baker Possibly be Extended?

[srbin84]

Look at it from Hendry's side. If he extends Baker for two years, he can fire him in 2008 if the team still sucks, get a new manager then and possibly secure himself another extension.

[goonys evil twin]

Look at it from Hendry's side. If he extends Baker for two years, he can fire him in 2008 if the team still sucks, get a new manager then and possibly secure himself another extension.

 

No way. If Hendry is allowed to either extend Baker or sign a new manager, and the team still sucks, that will have been his last chance.

[srbin84]

Look at it from Hendry's side. If he extends Baker for two years, he can fire him in 2008 if the team still sucks, get a new manager then and possibly secure himself another extension.

 

No way. If Hendry is allowed to either extend Baker or sign a new manager, and the team still sucks, that will have been his last chance.

 

If they were willing to sign him to a new contract now, I'm not assuming anything.

[goonys evil twin]

Look at it from Hendry's side. If he extends Baker for two years, he can fire him in 2008 if the team still sucks, get a new manager then and possibly secure himself another extension.

 

No way. If Hendry is allowed to either extend Baker or sign a new manager, and the team still sucks, that will have been his last chance.

 

If they were willing to sign him to a new contract now, I'm not assuming anything.

 

They signed Hendry to a new contract during a good start, following what they considered to be one off year. If they suck in 2006, 2007 and 2008, they won't consider it an off year or a fluke. Hendry will pay by then. Cubs GMs don't last long into years of struggle. Dallas Green was fired after a couple losing seasons following the 84 season. Frey wasn't even given 2 years after the 89 season. Larry Himes did his damage early and was gone in 2.5 years (despite one moderately successful season). Lynch was given 4 years to get things going under the new Andy regime, but was fired just 1.5 years after the 98 wild card.

 

Hendry's teams won 88 and 89 games and looked to be on the way up. 2005 was a down year, they thought it was a fluke. If 2006 and 2007 end up with similar results, he probably won't be back in 2008, let alone allowed to hire a new manager after 2008.

[srbin84]

Look at it from Hendry's side. If he extends Baker for two years, he can fire him in 2008 if the team still sucks, get a new manager then and possibly secure himself another extension.

 

No way. If Hendry is allowed to either extend Baker or sign a new manager, and the team still sucks, that will have been his last chance.

 

If they were willing to sign him to a new contract now, I'm not assuming anything.

 

They signed Hendry to a new contract during a good start, following what they considered to be one off year. If they suck in 2006, 2007 and 2008, they won't consider it an off year or a fluke. Hendry will pay by then. Cubs GMs don't last long into years of struggle. Dallas Green was fired after a couple losing seasons following the 84 season. Frey wasn't even given 2 years after the 89 season. Larry Himes did his damage early and was gone in 2.5 years (despite one moderately successful season). Lynch was given 4 years to get things going under the new Andy regime, but was fired just 1.5 years after the 98 wild card.

 

Hendry's teams won 88 and 89 games and looked to be on the way up. 2005 was a down year, they thought it was a fluke. If 2006 and 2007 end up with similar results, he probably won't be back in 2008, let alone allowed to hire a new manager after 2008.

 

Yeah, but how about crap this year, around 85 wins next year, then a bad start in 2008.

[frostwyrm]

Extending Dusty Baker is like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic!

 

It's more like the Captain of the Titanic surviving the wreck, and then asking him to Captain the next ship you're sending out to sea.

 

Please note, the next ship will be built by the same guy that built the Titanic.

I'd feel safer in a Zeppelin.

[goonys evil twin]

Yeah, but how about crap this year, around 85 wins next year, then a bad start in 2008.

 

If they suck the rest of 2006, win 85 in 2007 and then struggle to start 2008, and Hendry has extended Baker or hired a new manager, I would be willing to bet he isn't brought back again.

 

A bad 2006 along with the return of Hendry and Baker in 2007 will guarantee lower attendence (despite the myths it does happen when the team struggles), which will piss off ownership to no end. And they will force Andy to make a change.

 

Andy has fired Lynch, he's fired Riggleman, he's fired Baylor, coaches, trainers, Sosa and others. They made a mistake in extending Hendry. They will not do it again unless he improves the team.

[srbin84]

Yeah, but how about crap this year, around 85 wins next year, then a bad start in 2008.

 

If they suck the rest of 2006, win 85 in 2007 and then struggle to start 2008, and Hendry has extended Baker or hired a new manager, I would be willing to bet he isn't brought back again.

 

A bad 2006 along with the return of Hendry and Baker in 2007 will guarantee lower attendence (despite the myths it does happen when the team struggles), which will piss off ownership to no end. And they will force Andy to make a change.

 

Andy has fired Lynch, he's fired Riggleman, he's fired Baylor, coaches, trainers, Sosa and others. They made a mistake in extending Hendry. They will not do it again unless he improves the team.

 

I think an 85 win team would pack Wrigley every game.

[goonys evil twin]

 

I think an 85 win team would pack Wrigley every game.

 

Nope. % of capacity will be down this year because of last year. Attendance totals are a different matter since there are more seats now. It will fall further in 2007 if they keep sucking in 2006, especially if Baker and Hendry return. You might see a bump in 2008 if they win 85 in 2007, but attencance lags success (or lack thereof).

 

Ticket sales went through the roof in 2004 because of the postseason run of 2003, not the 88 wins of 2003 or 89 of 2004. Attendance stayed high in 2005 because of expectations built off those last two teams.

[CubinNY]

I just can't believe that they would even consider extending Baker's contract. I cannot berlieve it. It is unbelievable. do they watch this team?

 

I am refusing to believe this until it actually happens. I mean, let's just say the Cubs go on to lose 7 of their next 10 and then 6 of their next 10. That would make them 22 and 35 and take them to mid June, How could they extend him?

[biittner77]

on Mike and Mike in the morning on espn they had Buster Olney who said that hendry was just waiting for the Cubs to turn around the season and he was going to extend BakerThe only to get rid of this person is stay away from the ball park, force hendry to make a decision.

 

or when pigs fly :pig:

 

In all seriousness, I wonder what "turn around the season" means? .500? 5 over? 2nd place?

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Buster Olney chimes in on his blog

 

Here's the thing: If Baker is the guy Hendry really wants to manage the team in 2007 and 2008, it shouldn't matter whether the timing of an offer and announcement fits neatly into a win streak. If Baker is the guy Hendry wants, he should give him the contract and end the speculation about Baker's future, and thus keep him from dangling in the wind of public speculation. If Hendry does this, he'll immediately take pressure off Baker and take the flak himself for the decision to keep him -- and that's better for the manager and the team.

 

If Hendry is not sure he wants Baker back, he should fire him right now. He's had 3½ years to evaluate Baker, and that's plenty of time to formulate an opinion. And if he fires Dusty now, that'll leave plenty of time for Hendry to hire somebody who might find a way to get the team on the right track and back into contention.

 

The Cubs are flat-out awful at the moment, floundering in an abyss of doubt, and some kind of decision on the lame-duck manager is badly needed.

 

[Banedon]

Buster Olney chimes in on his blog

 

Here's the thing: If Baker is the guy Hendry really wants to manage the team in 2007 and 2008, it shouldn't matter whether the timing of an offer and announcement fits neatly into a win streak. If Baker is the guy Hendry wants, he should give him the contract and end the speculation about Baker's future, and thus keep him from dangling in the wind of public speculation. If Hendry does this, he'll immediately take pressure off Baker and take the flak himself for the decision to keep him -- and that's better for the manager and the team.

 

If Hendry is not sure he wants Baker back, he should fire him right now. He's had 3½ years to evaluate Baker, and that's plenty of time to formulate an opinion. And if he fires Dusty now, that'll leave plenty of time for Hendry to hire somebody who might find a way to get the team on the right track and back into contention.

 

The Cubs are flat-out awful at the moment, floundering in an abyss of doubt, and some kind of decision on the lame-duck manager is badly needed.

 

 

Great point. If Hendry is going to go the insane route, and extend Baker, just get it over with. Along with possibly helping the club (not sure if I buy that), it will help me, as I'll know what priority the Cubs are going to hold on my life throughout the summer.... :P

[CubinNY]

Buster Olney chimes in on his blog

 

Here's the thing: If Baker is the guy Hendry really wants to manage the team in 2007 and 2008, it shouldn't matter whether the timing of an offer and announcement fits neatly into a win streak. If Baker is the guy Hendry wants, he should give him the contract and end the speculation about Baker's future, and thus keep him from dangling in the wind of public speculation. If Hendry does this, he'll immediately take pressure off Baker and take the flak himself for the decision to keep him -- and that's better for the manager and the team.

 

If Hendry is not sure he wants Baker back, he should fire him right now. He's had 3½ years to evaluate Baker, and that's plenty of time to formulate an opinion. And if he fires Dusty now, that'll leave plenty of time for Hendry to hire somebody who might find a way to get the team on the right track and back into contention.

 

The Cubs are flat-out awful at the moment, floundering in an abyss of doubt, and some kind of decision on the lame-duck manager is badly needed.

 

 

Vance,

 

Can you send that to 1060 W. Addison St, Chicago IL, 60613 and address it to Mr. J. Hendry?

[Caryatid]

I think the key for Hendry is that the facade of the Ramirez and Lee deals has worn off. It seems to me that this GM needs to make one great deal a year to get enough of a group of people to support his regime.

 

That might be the saddest thing of all-the "masses" don't demand a coherent strategy or long-term approach to building an organization as long as you can point to one or two deals where you fleeced a dumb or hogtied GM

[Banedon]

From an ESPN chat:

 

Kevin (Manassas): Will Dusty Baker get fired? If so, who might replace him?

 

Jerry Crasnick: (1:38 PM ET ) Kevin,

 

I think Hendry wants to extend his contract, but the anti-Dusty venom is sure spewing in Chicago. And the longer the team's woes drag on and Dusty is in contract limbo, the worse it's going to get. I have no idea what will happen, but my gut tells me this season could be Dusty's last in Chicago. He can always bide his time and wait to be reunited with Jeff Moorad in Arizona.

[Peoriaman]

No. Dusty is gone after this year, maybe sooner.

[badger1679666666]

Why the hell does Hendry want to extend Dusty so bad? Does he not think there are better options out there? I just don't get it, and it makes me so viscerally angry to think about Hendry sitting back there hoping we win 5 in a row.

 

In fact, it's making me actually cheer against the Cubs.

[soccer10k]

The Cubs will play crappy until Prior, Wood, Lee, Miller come back. Then they will play slighly above .500 ball and finish with like 75 wins. This will get Dusty an extension on the basis that "Dusty managed to recover a sinking ship and finish the season with promise for next year"

 

I would say the Cubs have to play at least .550 ball when everybody comes for me to be okay with an extention. Playing .500 isn't good enough.

 

I would think that when Prior, Wood, Miller, and Lee come back, the Cubs need to play .700 ball for at least a month for Hendry to offer him an extension. After all, the return of those players eliminates all of Baker's excuses.

 

First, assuming Lee comes back by the end of July, that leaves August and September for the team to turn it around and I would expect them to play well for 2 months not 1.

 

Second, expecting a team to play .700 ball is a bit excessive as that would mean a 113 win pace. I could see .600 ball as that would be a 97 win pace. But they would have to play really well after everybody gets back for an extention to be warranted.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

The Cubs will play crappy until Prior, Wood, Lee, Miller come back. Then they will play slighly above .500 ball and finish with like 75 wins. This will get Dusty an extension on the basis that "Dusty managed to recover a sinking ship and finish the season with promise for next year"

 

I would say the Cubs have to play at least .550 ball when everybody comes for me to be okay with an extention. Playing .500 isn't good enough.

 

I would think that when Prior, Wood, Miller, and Lee come back, the Cubs need to play .700 ball for at least a month for Hendry to offer him an extension. After all, the return of those players eliminates all of Baker's excuses.

 

First, assuming Lee comes back by the end of July, that leaves August and September for the team to turn it around and I would expect them to play well for 2 months not 1.

 

Second, expecting a team to play .700 ball is a bit excessive as that would mean a 113 win pace. I could see .600 ball as that would be a 97 win pace. But they would have to play really well after everybody gets back for an extention to be warranted.

 

Not that it has a lot of bearing on the rest of the thread, but Lee should be back a month sooner than that.

[srbin84]

I'm interested to see if the hostile environment is something that would keep Dusty from even accepting an extension. I can just picture some crazy Cub fan assinating him at the press conference. (joke)

[soccer10k]

The Cubs will play crappy until Prior, Wood, Lee, Miller come back. Then they will play slighly above .500 ball and finish with like 75 wins. This will get Dusty an extension on the basis that "Dusty managed to recover a sinking ship and finish the season with promise for next year"

 

I would say the Cubs have to play at least .550 ball when everybody comes for me to be okay with an extention. Playing .500 isn't good enough.

 

I would think that when Prior, Wood, Miller, and Lee come back, the Cubs need to play .700 ball for at least a month for Hendry to offer him an extension. After all, the return of those players eliminates all of Baker's excuses.

 

First, assuming Lee comes back by the end of July, that leaves August and September for the team to turn it around and I would expect them to play well for 2 months not 1.

 

Second, expecting a team to play .700 ball is a bit excessive as that would mean a 113 win pace. I could see .600 ball as that would be a 97 win pace. But they would have to play really well after everybody gets back for an extention to be warranted.

 

Not that it has a lot of bearing on the rest of the thread, but Lee should be back a month sooner than that.

 

I know. I should have been more specific. I'm giving him time to get used to hitting a baseball again and being conservative with my estimate.

[UBlink]

I'm interested to see if the hostile environment is something that would keep Dusty from even accepting an extension. I can just picture some crazy Cub fan assinating him at the press conference. (joke)

 

I'm having fun trying to think of definitions for assinate.

[halplm]

There are two reasons Hendry might actually want Baker around:

 

1. He truly believes Baker is the best option available.

 

This may in fact be true. He's completely behind the strategies Baker has for the team and has BUILT the team to fit Dusty's mindset. If this is true, Baker WILL be extended, even if we lose 120 games. This is also why the Hendry extension was a horrible idea.

 

2. He wants Baker hatred to cover his own failures to build a good team.

 

He can only do this as long as Baker is there... or until he signs Baker to an extension while the team is still bad. If he signs Baker while the team is bad, all hatred moves from Baker to Hendry, as it's a stupid move that cannot make any sense. If the team turns it around, and Hendry sign's Baker... he's the manager... and the team is built around what the manager wants... don't like it, talk to Dusty...

 

I really truly hope it's the first reason... as the second means Hendry cares only about himself, and NOTHING for the team. On the other hand, I really hope it's the second reason, because Hendry deserves most of the blame.

 

I also think the 2nd option can explain the whole "wait until anythign good happens to extend Baker" nonsense. If it was the first, he'd already be extended, and if neither of those is true, he'd already be fired.

[srbin84]

I'm interested to see if the hostile environment is something that would keep Dusty from even accepting an extension. I can just picture some crazy Cub fan assinating him at the press conference. (joke)

 

I'm having fun trying to think of definitions for assinate.

 

I made a typo. Don't be assinate about the situation.