It's not Dusty's fault, but

[BigbadB]

My guess is the coaching staff positions the defense and Cedeno was playing where he was told to play. Quite obviously they were playing Pujols to pull the ball.

 

Well then, if Cedeno was so "obviously" playing him to pull in such a sever manner, shouldn't Walker have been playing virtually up the middle?

 

I guess that depends on what the spray charts say.

 

Also, I don't remember Baker ever saying "walks are overrated". Does anyone have a link? Maybe I missed it.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2669

 

Nice work! Lots of really interesting quotes in there. Is it merely a coincidence that each year the Cubs are poor at OBP and scoring runs?

 

Is it merely a coincidence that seemingly every time the Cubs pitchers walk the opposing hitter, that opposing hitter eventually scores?

 

I'm certainly not against an aggressive approach given certain situations. However, I am a firm believer that drawing walks is a good thing.

 

A walk, in and of itself, is boring. Everyone wants to see smashmouth hit and run baseball. A walk won't do that for you. However, a walk gives the next hitter the opportunity to provide smashmouth hit and run baseball. A walk extends an inning. Aggressive or not aggressive, the players that are currently on the Cubs are going to hit pretty much the same as they typically do. For example, Jacque Jones will probably end the season at .280 (+ or - .010) AVG. That's "acceptable" production in regards to AVG. The critical part is how often he gets on base via "other ways". If his OBP is only .300, then his .280 is virtually worthless in the big picture. If his OBP was .380, then he's providing many more extended innings and RBI opportunities for his teammates.

 

Dusty asking players to be aggressive is likely not going to change the overall picture of their batting averages. It will, however, deeply affect their On Base Percentage. And that is where there is a real danger in what he preaches.

 

That is why Hendry and Dusty will justify giving Jacque Jones a 3 year deal. He has 20+ HR power and his batting average is typically a respectable .270-.280, something these guys seem to cherish.

 

True, walking to first base will typically NOT drive in a run. But, if you go in and look at the teams who score the most runs all year long season after season, the teams who score the most runs are the teams who have the best OBP, not the best AVG.

 

Offense isn't the only thing involved with creating a winning team. Solid pitching, good defense and health are other very important factors, which is why the White Sox and Astros found their way to the World Series last year.

 

OBP has been an extremely sore subject for me with this team over the past several years. Mainly because management clearly has no desire to consider the importance of it.

 

Last year, the Cincinnati Reds hit .261 as a team. The Cubs hit .270 as a team. You would think that the team with the higher batting average over the course of the year would score more runs, but....

 

Cincinnati scored 820 runs last year. The Cubs scored 703. AVG or aggressive hitting isn't what had Cincinnati score more than 100 runs more than the Cubs last year, and it wasn't power either. It was the ability to get on base. The Cubs OBP last year was an atrocious .324 compared to Cincinnati's .339 OBP.

 

The argument regarding "timely hitting" is one that I usually stay away from. One could argue that guys who get hits when people are on base are guilty of timely hitting or clutch. My counter-argument is that the more often you have guys on base, the increased likelihood that you will have more oppotunities to be found guilty of timely hitting. How does that happen? By having runners on base.

 

Derrek Lee could have had 150 RBI's last year if he had guys with really good OBP's hitting in front of him all year. We can't argue that he just isn't very good at driving in runs. That would be a ridiculous argument. The correct argument is that he had a whole lot less opportunities to drive in runs, because the guys who were employed to hit in front of him were miserable failures of what should have been their most important job when asked to hit in front of him. GET ON BASE!

 

I apologize for the rant. I won't be able to respond to any rebuttals as I'm heading out of town for the week.

 

Improving OBP wasn't the only issue that needed to be addressed this offseason. They did improve the bullpen and they also improved team speed and defense. But, they set themselves up for failure by ignoring the importance of OBP, when there were so many options and so much money available to spend to improve it. Milton Bradley currently sports a .375 OBP. The A's gave up 1 minor league player to get him, and he makes HALF of what Juan Pierre makes. Juan Pierre was coming off a year he provided a .326 OBP. We gave up 3 pitching prospects and pay him quite well.

 

The "need" for a lead off hitter isn't really what the Cubs needed. The "need" was really someone who could get on base 38% of the time instead of 29% of the time. Granted, Pierre is an improvement over the abomination that Dusty sent out there last year. But, I never thought it was enough. I won't even bother discussing Jacque Jones.

[cubfan1955]

My guess is the coaching staff positions the defense and Cedeno was playing where he was told to play. Quite obviously they were playing Pujols to pull the ball.

 

Well then, if Cedeno was so "obviously" playing him to pull in such a sever manner, shouldn't Walker have been playing virtually up the middle?

 

I guess that depends on what the spray charts say.

 

Also, I don't remember Baker ever saying "walks are overrated". Does anyone have a link? Maybe I missed it.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2669

 

Nice work! Lots of really interesting quotes in there. Is it merely a coincidence that each year the Cubs are poor at OBP and scoring runs?

 

Is it merely a coincidence that seemingly every time the Cubs pitchers walk the opposing hitter, that opposing hitter eventually scores?

 

I'm certainly not against an aggressive approach given certain situations. However, I am a firm believer that drawing walks is a good thing.

 

A walk, in and of itself, is boring. Everyone wants to see smashmouth hit and run baseball. A walk won't do that for you. However, a walk gives the next hitter the opportunity to provide smashmouth hit and run baseball. A walk extends an inning. Aggressive or not aggressive, the players that are currently on the Cubs are going to hit pretty much the same as they typically do. For example, Jacque Jones will probably end the season at .280 (+ or - .010) AVG. That's "acceptable" production in regards to AVG. The critical part is how often he gets on base via "other ways". If his OBP is only .300, then his .280 is virtually worthless in the big picture. If his OBP was .380, then he's providing many more extended innings and RBI opportunities for his teammates.

 

Dusty asking players to be aggressive is likely not going to change the overall picture of their batting averages. It will, however, deeply affect their On Base Percentage. And that is where there is a real danger in what he preaches.

 

That is why Hendry and Dusty will justify giving Jacque Jones a 3 year deal. He has 20+ HR power and his batting average is typically a respectable .270-.280, something these guys seem to cherish.

 

True, walking to first base will typically NOT drive in a run. But, if you go in and look at the teams who score the most runs all year long season after season, the teams who score the most runs are the teams who have the best OBP, not the best AVG.

 

Offense isn't the only thing involved with creating a winning team. Solid pitching, good defense and health are other very important factors, which is why the White Sox and Astros found their way to the World Series last year.

 

OBP has been an extremely sore subject for me with this team over the past several years. Mainly because management clearly has no desire to consider the importance of it.

 

Last year, the Cincinnati Reds hit .261 as a team. The Cubs hit .270 as a team. You would think that the team with the higher batting average over the course of the year would score more runs, but....

 

Cincinnati scored 820 runs last year. The Cubs scored 703. AVG or aggressive hitting isn't what had Cincinnati score more than 100 runs more than the Cubs last year, and it wasn't power either. It was the ability to get on base. The Cubs OBP last year was an atrocious .324 compared to Cincinnati's .339 OBP.

 

The argument regarding "timely hitting" is one that I usually stay away from. One could argue that guys who get hits when people are on base are guilty of timely hitting or clutch. My counter-argument is that the more often you have guys on base, the increased likelihood that you will have more oppotunities to be found guilty of timely hitting. How does that happen? By having runners on base.

 

Derrek Lee could have had 150 RBI's last year if he had guys with really good OBP's hitting in front of him all year. We can't argue that he just isn't very good at driving in runs. That would be a ridiculous argument. The correct argument is that he had a whole lot less opportunities to drive in runs, because the guys who were employed to hit in front of him were miserable failures of what should have been their most important job when asked to hit in front of him. GET ON BASE!

 

I apologize for the rant. I won't be able to respond to any rebuttals as I'm heading out of town for the week.

 

Improving OBP wasn't the only issue that needed to be addressed this offseason. They did improve the bullpen and they also improved team speed and defense. But, they set themselves up for failure by ignoring the importance of OBP, when there were so many options and so much money available to spend to improve it. Milton Bradley currently sports a .375 OBP. The A's gave up 1 minor league player to get him, and he makes HALF of what Juan Pierre makes. Juan Pierre was coming off a year he provided a .326 OBP. We gave up 3 pitching prospects and pay him quite well.

 

The "need" for a lead off hitter isn't really what the Cubs needed. The "need" was really someone who could get on base 38% of the time instead of 29% of the time. Granted, Pierre is an improvement over the abomination that Dusty sent out there last year. But, I never thought it was enough. I won't even bother discussing Jacque Jones.

Summary: It's easier to score runs when you have baserunners and it doesn't matter how they got there. :D

[Mark Priors Calves]

My guess is the coaching staff positions the defense and Cedeno was playing where he was told to play. Quite obviously they were playing Pujols to pull the ball.

 

Well then, if Cedeno was so "obviously" playing him to pull in such a sever manner, shouldn't Walker have been playing virtually up the middle?

 

I guess that depends on what the spray charts say.

 

Also, I don't remember Baker ever saying "walks are overrated". Does anyone have a link? Maybe I missed it.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2669

 

That link made my head hurt.

[Tracer Bullet]

My guess is the coaching staff positions the defense and Cedeno was playing where he was told to play. Quite obviously they were playing Pujols to pull the ball.

 

Well then, if Cedeno was so "obviously" playing him to pull in such a sever manner, shouldn't Walker have been playing virtually up the middle?

 

I guess that depends on what the spray charts say.

 

Also, I don't remember Baker ever saying "walks are overrated". Does anyone have a link? Maybe I missed it.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2669

 

That link made my head hurt.

 

Each time I read those quotes, a little part of me dies.

[LoneStarCubFan]

Somebody else alluded to this but it absolutely drives me nuts when Baker pulls a double switch when even he knows the pitcher is only going to throw one inning.

 

And given the fact Baker almost never lets a reliever throw more than an inning it makes it even more maddening.

[ManCrushOnNomar]

You just can't walk hitters in front of Pujols. That's what it boils down to.

 

Agreed, but that double switch in the 5th was not a brilliant move. Moreover, Cedeno appeared to be out of position on Pujols' single; he did not hit it that hard. I kept waiting for Ronny to appear in the middle of my screen to scoop the ball.

And it made me upset because at the game I was arguing with a Cards fan who said Dusty should have left Rusch in to retire Pujols (which is completely [expletive]), but I explained to him Williamson's splitfinger would induce a groundball from Pujols to get out of the inning. After watching Williamson set him up for that low inside splitter and seeing Pujols make contact I got a little grin knowing I was right... until I saw how out of position Ronny was as it went into the outfield.

 

So close!

[Chris]

From the Cubs Notes:

 

Baker may be making some moves and double-switches in games that seem puzzling. It's out of necessity, he said.

 

"[The players] know what I'm doing," Baker said. "I told them in a meeting [saturday] that I have to do some things in this situation that we have here that I might not ordinarily do in order to preserve this or in order to preserve that. Their job is not to like it, necessarily, but their job is to go along with it and understand it. That's part of being the boss."

 

That explains why Todd Walker, who is batting .391, was removed from the game after five innings on Saturday. The bullpen was short-handed, and Baker needed pitcher Scott Williamson to go deep.

 

"I have to see the big picture, not just today," Baker said. "I have to see [sunday] and Monday and Tuesday and Wednesday before we have another off-day. I know a lot of people just see today, but I've got today and tomorrow and the next day."

[CubinNY]

My guess is the coaching staff positions the defense and Cedeno was playing where he was told to play. Quite obviously they were playing Pujols to pull the ball.

 

Well then, if Cedeno was so "obviously" playing him to pull in such a sever manner, shouldn't Walker have been playing virtually up the middle?

 

I guess that depends on what the spray charts say.

 

Also, I don't remember Baker ever saying "walks are overrated". Does anyone have a link? Maybe I missed it.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2669

 

I really hate those qoutes. It depresses me everytime I read them.