Pie for Kendrick?

[stitchface]

and the D'backs have Gonzales, Quentin, and Young as upcoming outfielders

 

what does this have to do with howie kendrick?

 

Because they'd be trading Kendrick for another outfielder?

 

Kendrick is an Angels prospect - not DBacks.

[Guest]

Pie has a higher upside while Kendrick is much more of a sure thing. For a club with a $100M budget, average players can be bought. Finding all-stars is more of a challenge. Keep the guy that might be an all-star (accepting the risk of flame-out) and sign the other guys in FA.

[stitchface]

Pie has a higher upside while Kendrick is much more of a sure thing. For a club with a $100M budget, average players can be bought. Finding all-stars is more of a challenge. Keep the guy that might be an all-star (accepting the risk of flame-out) and sign the other guys in FA.

 

sounds like the cardinals.

[Warpticon]

and the D'backs have Gonzales, Quentin, and Young as upcoming outfielders

 

what does this have to do with howie kendrick?

 

Because they'd be trading Kendrick for another outfielder?

 

Kendrick is an Angels prospect - not DBacks.

 

...Okay, that changes eveything. Oops. :oops:

 

So, um, nevermind! I wonder what it was that keeps me confusing the Angels with the Dbacks. Oh, I know. It's the absurdly good shortstop prospects.

[Scotti]

only a .404 career OBP

 

:shock:

 

When you have a BA of .359, your OBP should be higher than .404.

 

a .404 OBP with a .359 BA is better than a .404 OBP with a .290 BA.

 

Kendrick will have neither a .404 OBP with a .359 BA nor a .404 OBP with a .290 BA--he simply will not have a .404 OBP.

 

In fact, history shows that BA is more sustainable than walk rate as players advance.

 

History doesn't have much to say about guys with sub 5% walk ratios keeping their BA up and that was my point. Either his walk ratio must greatly improve (you correctly point out that isn't likely) or he will (eventually) see fewer strikes than Corey Patterson on an 0 and 2 count.

 

Remember, Kendrick has only seen a partial year in AA. Guys in higher leagues will eventually take advantage of his free swining ways. IMO, Kendrick's CEILING is .861 OPS (he would need to hit .310) for a reportedly defensively challenged 2B without great speed or power--I don’t believe he is likely to have an .861 OPS. IMO, he will NOT be a successful MLB hitter with a 4-5% walk ratio.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

In fact, history shows that BA is more sustainable than walk rate as players advance.

 

Are you sure about this?

[Scotti]

I think you miss factoring in Kendrick's high contact rates and strong scouting reports.

 

No current MLB player has had any success by being as impatient as Kendrick. I can’t think of any recent player who has. Pierre and Ichiro are both “contact” guys as well but they have succeeded (with higher BB ratios) because they bunt a lot due to their fantastic speed and pitchers simply don‘t want to walk either of them so they throw both hitters strikes. Kendrick has decent but not fantastic speed. In most situations no veteran MLB pitcher will think second about throwing ball one, two, three or four to a guy who doesn’t take walks and doesn’t have plus, plus speed. If he wants strikes he'll need to take some more walks.

[stitchface]

I would look at the angels roster for comps that succeeded. Edited April 2, 2006 by stitchface

[UK1679666180]

Remember, Kendrick has only seen a partial year in AA. Guys in higher leagues will eventually take advantage of his free swining ways. IMO, Kendrick's CEILING is .861 OPS (he would need to hit .310) for a reportedly defensively challenged 2B without great speed or power--I don’t believe he is likely to have an .861 OPS. IMO, he will NOT be a successful MLB hitter with a 4-5% walk ratio.

 

I think he'll be able to hit in the 10-20 HR range.

 

I see him as an Ichiro or a Tony Gwynn type of hitter, line drive hitter who sacrifices BBs for contact.