PECOTA NL Central Projections On BP

[CubsWin]

 

NL Central    W      L    RS      RA   BatDelta  PitDelta
Cardinals    86     76   748     703      +9        +31
Cubs         85     77   725     690     -21        +60
Brewers      84     78   742     713      +2        +26
Astros       81     81   717     716     -17        +18
Pirates      79     83   731     755      -7        -11
Reds         78     84   746     778      +9        -34

 

 

While I’m skeptical about the win totals that PECOTA has associated with the White Sox and Angels, I believe this number to be right for the Cardinals. The Opening Day lineup will feature four starters--Yadier Molina, David Eckstein, So Taguchi, and Junior Spivey, that simply don’t qualify as adequate regulars for a first-division club. Nor do the Cardinals have anything in the way of farm system depth. It’s going to require some mid-season capital expenditures to get this team in shape for the post-season, and given that the parity in the National League is likely to produce a seller’s market, Walt Jocketty’s Midwestern conservatism could get in the way of another pennant.

But...I thought Walt Jocketty was a genius and Hendry was an idiot. I guess maybe there are only so many great hitters in baseball and not every position can be filled with one. Hunh? Go figure. :wink:

 

BTW, thanks CardsFan, for the info. Cool post.

[K-Town]

Anybody know what Pecota said last year?

[Catman61]

preseason 2005

 

           W    L    PCT    RS    RA
Cardinals  92   70   .569   818   708
Cubs       89   73   .550   773   696
Astros     80   82   .494   724   734
Reds       76   86   .472   789   836
Brewers    73   89   .453   707   781
Pirates    72   90   .444   700   788

[Catman61]

preseason 2004

 

NL Central      RawW%    SOS    AdjW%   AdjW    AdjL    AdjRS   AdjRA
Houston         .568    .489    .578    93.7    68.3    808     680
Chicago         .562    .492    .569    92.2    69.8    735     627
St. Louis       .543    .494    .549    89.0    73.0    769     681
Cincinnati      .469    .498    .471    76.4    85.6    760     804
Milwaukee       .420    .505    .414    67.1    94.9    691     827
Pittsburgh      .420    .506    .414    67.1    94.9    656     785

 

let's run through the divisions and evaluate each team in these departments:

 

Raw W% - 'Raw' Winning Percentage for each team as listed on the depth charts, prior to adjusting for strength of schedule.

SOS - Strength of Schedule. The average Raw W% of a team's opponents, weighted based on number of games played against.

Adj W% - Adjusted Winning Percentage after factoring in the Strength of Schedule component by using the log5 method as described by Tom Tippett here.

Adj W, Adj L - Adjusted Wins and Losses based on Adj W% over the 162-game schedule.

Adj RS, Adj RA - Adjusted Runs Scored and Runs Allowed. These figures are also adjusted for a team's quality of opposition by using an analog to the log5 method.

[Catman61]

But...I thought Walt Jocketty was a genius and Hendry was an idiot. I guess maybe there are only so many great hitters in baseball and not every position can be filled with one. Hunh? Go figure. :wink:

 

BTW, thanks CardsFan, for the info. Cool post.

 

Care to take any bets that the 6th place team isn't within 8 games of the 1st place team?

 

Heck, I'll even wager that the Cardinals win 90 or more games in 2006.

 

edited to fix inability to tell an EIGHT from a SIX (can't even blame it on beer googles)

Edited March 30, 2006 by Catman61

[SouthSideRyan]

But...I thought Walt Jocketty was a genius and Hendry was an idiot. I guess maybe there are only so many great hitters in baseball and not every position can be filled with one. Hunh? Go figure. :wink:

 

BTW, thanks CardsFan, for the info. Cool post.

 

Care to take any bets that the 6th place team isn't within 6 games of the 1st place team?

 

Heck, I'll even wager that the Cardinals win 90 or more games in 2006.

 

It's 8 games, but yeah there's not a chance in hell.

[Catman61]

It's 8 games, but yeah there's not a chance in hell.

:oops:

[Derwood]

Does anyone know the history of PECOTA accuracy? Should we read anything into this at all?

[BigbadB]

Well, you know Pittsburgh will be big sellers at the trade deadline once again, so without factoring in fire sales, those numbers may not be that far off.

 

What do the Pirates have to sell?

 

Sean Casey, Jeromy Burnitz, Joe Randa, Craig Wilson, Kip Wells, Victor Santos, Jody Gerut, Solomon Torres and Damaso Marte.

[jjgman21]

Does anyone know the history of PECOTA accuracy? Should we read anything into this at all?

 

not sure about W/L, but I'm pretty sure PECOTA had the Cards winning the central handily in 2004 when everybody else was picking the Cubs and Astros. I think it tends to be pretty much dead on, with a few exceptions (ie. the White Sox last year), for the standings.