Neifi vs. Walker defensively

[UBlink]

The anti-Neifi crowd might want to avoid today's Game Thread.

[srbin84]

It kills me to watch them leave guys like Walker, Ramirez or Murton in there down by a run or two in the 9th when we have/had Hairston, Patterson, Goodwin sitting on the bench.

 

It kills you? Ramirez I can see. But Walker isn't nearly as slow as him, and Murton is reasonably fast himself. Anyway, I highly doubt there are many situations in which Dusty left a speedster on the bench in the 9th with Ramirez on base and the team down by a run.

 

The way I look at it is if you are down by a run in the 9th, you should sub a pinch runner in for every single man who reaches on base as long as their is a faster runner on the bench to go in for him. I don't care about the possible consequences if you end up tying the game and play continues. I would rather see us put Hairston in for Barrett/Blanco on the bases (with the other catcher already out of the game) and take our best chance of tying the game. You can call me crazy, but I would rather tie the game and put Neifi, Cedeno or whoever at catcher than lose it in the 9th because the runner wasn't fast enough to go for home on a base hit or break up a DP.

[goonys evil twin]

The way I look at it is if you are down by a run in the 9th, you should sub a pinch runner in for every single man who reaches on base as long as their is a faster runner on the bench to go in for him. I don't care about the possible consequences if you end up tying the game and play continues. I would rather see us put Hairston in for Barrett/Blanco on the bases (with the other catcher already out of the game) and take our best chance of tying the game. You can call me crazy, but I would rather tie the game and put Neifi, Cedeno or whoever at catcher than lose it in the 9th because the runner wasn't fast enough to go for home on a base hit or break up a DP.

 

Try that strategy for long and you'll get burned a lot. Most runs don't score because of the marginal rate of speed of the runners. Most runs score by a hit that leaves little doubt as to the result.

[badger1679666666]

The way I look at it is if you are down by a run in the 9th, you should sub a pinch runner in for every single man who reaches on base as long as their is a faster runner on the bench to go in for him. I don't care about the possible consequences if you end up tying the game and play continues. I would rather see us put Hairston in for Barrett/Blanco on the bases (with the other catcher already out of the game) and take our best chance of tying the game. You can call me crazy, but I would rather tie the game and put Neifi, Cedeno or whoever at catcher than lose it in the 9th because the runner wasn't fast enough to go for home on a base hit or break up a DP.

 

Try that strategy for long and you'll get burned a lot. Most runs don't score because of the marginal rate of speed of the runners. Most runs score by a hit that leaves little doubt as to the result.

 

Dude, buddy, you GOTTA change that sig. I can't concentrate on ANYTHING you type.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Dude, buddy, you GOTTA change that sig. I can't concentrate on ANYTHING you type.

 

No, he doesn't.

[LeftCoastCubFan]

First, there is no good statistic for rating defense other then scouting. Player 1 on the visiting team makes a diving stop past second base and throws out a fast runner by an eyelash at first, then makes a diving stop at a line drive tailing away, then has a ball hit a rock on a play he was perfectly positioned for that goes over his head for a hit. Player two for the home team has an easy grounder from a slow pitcher and barely throws him out. He boots a ball to his right but the official scorer is generous and awards a hit. He catches a popup. Statistically they are equal players. But scouting tells you otherwise. Zone ratings and runs against average are nice, but they don’t tell the whole story.

 

Defensively, Neifi blows Todd away. What do you think Walker would do defensively over the course of the season if he played shortstop? Perez should be a better defensive second baseman then shortstop. Walker is a below average defensive second baseman.

 

It should also be noted that his teammates, bosses, or anyone else in baseball is defending Walker’s defense. So it’s just a question of what is the net difference.

 

Let’s put things in perspective. Assuming a 24 week season, 144 game, 500 plate appearance season for each; the difference between their career obp is .047 which amounts to 23.5 hits/walks over the course of a season or one base a week.

 

If you assume 4 or 5 chances a game, and 1 to 2 hits getting through the right side of the infield a game; that’s somewhere in the area 720 to 1008 plays over 144 games. Defensively I think it would be fair (if not conservative) to say that Neifi would likely get to 6 more balls and convert them to outs, make 6 less errors, turn 6 more double plays, and not misplay 6 balls that aren’t ruled errors; or about 1 out a week.

 

Given these are on balls in play giving up outs versus what is more likely to be a walk; I see it as pretty much a wash (or a slight edge to Neifi) comparing defense vs. obp

 

The difference in slugging of .061 is what swings things back to Walker with an extra 30.5 total bases a bit unless you believe he will misplay 2 balls a week

 

So the real question is how many less outs will Todd convert in a week then Neifi.

[srbin84]

First, there is no good statistic for rating defense other then scouting. Player 1 on the visiting team makes a diving stop past second base and throws out a fast runner by an eyelash at first, then makes a diving stop at a line drive tailing away, then has a ball hit a rock on a play he was perfectly positioned for that goes over his head for a hit. Player two for the home team has an easy grounder from a slow pitcher and barely throws him out. He boots a ball to his right but the official scorer is generous and awards a hit. He catches a popup. Statistically they are equal players. But scouting tells you otherwise. Zone ratings and runs against average are nice, but they don’t tell the whole story.

 

Defensively, Neifi blows Todd away. What do you think Walker would do defensively over the course of the season if he played shortstop? Perez should be a better defensive second baseman then shortstop. Walker is a below average defensive second baseman.

 

It should also be noted that his teammates, bosses, or anyone else in baseball is defending Walker’s defense. So it’s just a question of what is the net difference.

 

Let’s put things in perspective. Assuming a 24 week season, 144 game, 500 plate appearance season for each; the difference between their career obp is .047 which amounts to 23.5 hits/walks over the course of a season or one base a week.

 

If you assume 4 or 5 chances a game, and 1 to 2 hits getting through the right side of the infield a game; that’s somewhere in the area 720 to 1008 plays over 144 games. Defensively I think it would be fair (if not conservative) to say that Neifi would likely get to 6 more balls and convert them to outs, make 6 less errors, turn 6 more double plays, and not misplay 6 balls that aren’t ruled errors; or about 1 out a week.

 

Given these are on balls in play giving up outs versus what is more likely to be a walk; I see it as pretty much a wash (or a slight edge to Neifi) comparing defense vs. obp

 

The difference in slugging of .061 is what swings things back to Walker with an extra 30.5 total bases a bit unless you believe he will misplay 2 balls a week

 

So the real question is how many less outs will Todd convert in a week then Neifi.

 

Excellent work. Nice to see you and UK making statistical contributions.

[treebird]

The anti-Neifi crowd might want to avoid today's Game Thread.

 

what happened?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The anti-Neifi crowd might want to avoid today's Game Thread.

 

what happened?

 

He hit a home run, then popped out twice.

[UK1679666180]

Let’s put things in perspective. Assuming a 24 week season, 144 game, 500 plate appearance season for each; the difference between their career obp is .047 which amounts to 23.5 hits/walks over the course of a season or one base a week.

 

You still haven't adjusted for Park Factors:

 

The adjusted OBP for the League for Perez has been .364 since most of his career has been played in Colorado. For Walker, the adjusted league OBP has been .349. For SLG, The League avg. has been .464 for Perez and .445 for Walker

 

You adjust Perez's OBP if he played in the same parks as Walker his OBP drops to .289 and his slugging drops to .361.

[treebird]

The anti-Neifi crowd might want to avoid today's Game Thread.

 

what happened?

 

He hit a home run, then popped out twice.

 

GIVE THAT MAN THE JOB

[LeftCoastCubFan]

The anti-Neifi crowd might want to avoid today's Game Thread.

 

what happened?

 

He hit a home run, then popped out twice.

And then an RBI double? The original comment was made before the game ehen he was in the #2 spot.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The anti-Neifi crowd might want to avoid today's Game Thread.

 

what happened?

 

He hit a home run, then popped out twice.

And then an RBI double? The original comment was made before the game ehen he was in the #2 spot.

 

Did he double since then? I haven't been back to the game thread. I read the comment then went to see what he did, the timing was a little off I guess.

[UBlink]

The anti-Neifi crowd might want to avoid today's Game Thread.

 

what happened?

 

He hit a home run, then popped out twice.

And then an RBI double? The original comment was made before the game ehen he was in the #2 spot.

 

Did he double since then? I haven't been back to the game thread. I read the comment then went to see what he did, the timing was a little off I guess.

 

Actually the original post was made after the home run. Nothing like a little Neifi success to to get the ink pixels flowing.

[LeftCoastCubFan]

The anti-Neifi crowd might want to avoid today's Game Thread.

 

what happened?

 

He hit a home run, then popped out twice.

And then an RBI double? The original comment was made before the game ehen he was in the #2 spot.

 

Did he double since then? I haven't been back to the game thread. I read the comment then went to see what he did, the timing was a little off I guess.

 

Cubs sixth

Hill reaches on infield single and goes to second on Mulholland wild pitch

Hairston reaches second base as D'Backs first baseman drops throw after a groundball second, Hill scores

Perez doubles home a run

Walker doubles home a run

Jones grounds out

PH Blanco flies out, Walker to third.

Mabry grounds out.

 

9-2 Cubs

[LeftCoastCubFan]

Let’s put things in perspective. Assuming a 24 week season, 144 game, 500 plate appearance season for each; the difference between their career obp is .047 which amounts to 23.5 hits/walks over the course of a season or one base a week.

 

You still haven't adjusted for Park Factors:

 

The adjusted OBP for the League for Perez has been .364 since most of his career has been played in Colorado. For Walker, the adjusted league OBP has been .349. For SLG, The League avg. has been .464 for Perez and .445 for Walker

 

You adjust Perez's OBP if he played in the same parks as Walker his OBP drops to .289 and his slugging drops to .361.

Agreed, the Colorado stint did inflate some numbers which would favor Walker. I was just trying to show that defense can bridge a big part of the gap depending on the value you place on it and that it wasn't just offensive differences.

[BWcubs21]

I'm wondering how much of Neifi's poor offense is cancelled out by his defense.

 

Neifi Perez career defensive stats at 2B:

 

GP 178 GS 138 FPCT .988 RF 5.78 ZR .833

 

That's basically one whole season. I couldn't find any 2B in baseball who can match these numbers.

 

Walker has a career FPCT .981 RF 4.75 ZR .792

 

I did some simple math and based on their career total chances per inning: Neifi is going to participate in 823 plays in a full season at 2B while Walker, in the same number innings, will participate in 680. Add to that the fact that Neifi is going to convert .7% more of his chances than Neifi and the disparity is even greater. I'm not sure how many more out that means we will have with Neifi as the 2B rather than Walker, but it seems like a lot.

 

 

* I did find one 2B who seems to be of the same caliber defensive 2B as Neifi, 9 time Gold Glove winner Ryne Sandberg. So basically, we have Ryne Sandberg defensively on our roster. I'm not saying that makes him a better player than Walker, but we should objectively look at the possibility.

 

Well once he starts showing half of Ryno's offensive skills he can play everyday.