If Things Break The Cubs Way...

[craig]

Regarding original post, I agree with cubswin, Hendry may have the pitching to be in very good shape as a summer trader. And budget space.

 

I don't see the position players having a lot of trade bait. He's not going to trade Jones right after signing him, or Pierre right after working so hard to get a leadoff. If he's going to trade position players, the bait is basically surplus 2B's and youngsters, be that Murton, Cedeno, Pie, or some other minor leaguer. I don't see any great likelihood of anything big involving our young players.

 

But the pitching stock, that's definitely an area that could be depth and strength. And as you say, not everything needs to break right for that to become true.

 

Still, it sure would be nice to not need to make a significant trade. Not to have a rotation with somebody as bad as Don Wengert (following Geremis Gonzalez injury) in 1998. Not to have Patterson destroy his knee in 2003 so that a CF was totally urgent. Not to have Alex Gonzalez get hurt and be so awful, as was a 2004 problem. Not to have such an emergency that you desperately need to acquire an Alf, as in 2002. Not to have such a 3B disaster as was Bellhorn/Lenny/Hernandez in 2003 so that Aram was needed. Not to have LF and CF be such a total void as was true last year with Hollandsworth and Dubois and Corey. Not to have a rotation disaster like Estes in 2003.

 

HOpefully the good guys will stay healthy enough so that you don't need to replace them. The young guys will produce enough so that they don't go Bobby Hill. And the more questionable guys will be satisfactory enough support players that they don't go bellhorn/Corey/Hollandsworth/Gonzo on us.

 

I'd sure love to see the team hold up well enough so that we win big this year. And still have all three of Guzman, Williams, and Hill, plus hopefully a good-news Miller, as post-Maddux options to fill the 2007 rotation behind Wood-Z-Prior. And still have control of Marshall and Marmol besides.

 

Pitching can go from depth to thin pretty quickly. I'd love to have Hill, Guzman, and Novoa all pitching like big-leaguers at Iowa this year, but all having the luxury of staying there because the big-leaguers are healthy and pitching like big-leaguers too.

[CubsWin]

I don't see the position players having a lot of trade bait. He's not going to trade Jones right after signing him, or Pierre right after working so hard to get a leadoff. If he's going to trade position players, the bait is basically surplus 2B's and youngsters, be that Murton, Cedeno, Pie, or some other minor leaguer. I don't see any great likelihood of anything big involving our young players.

I agree that Cubs pitching as the much greater likelihood of becoming a tradeable commodity, but with players like Murton and Walker on the roster, position players could also be traded. If Murton plays well, but not great, he could be included in a trade along with surplus arms for a power-hitting RFer with Jones moving over to LF. And with players like Hairston healthy and on the roster, Walker becomes tradeable as well. Hairston's OBP is comparable to Walker's but he has better speed for a #2 hitter and is slightly better defensively. If Walker would help bring in a power-hitting, left-handed RFer, there would be little reason for Hendry not to trade him.

 

I agree that Jones or Pierre being traded is far less likely, but if the right player becomes available, it certainly is still possible, at least after June 15th. The only scenario in which I mentioned Pierre being traded was for a lead-off hitting SS or 2B which would open a spot for Pie to play CF and provide the Cubs with the most player value. If CF is taken up by a weak-hitting lead-off guy like Pierre, Pie will have to be moved to a corner position where his hitting ability becomes a lot closer to league average and possibly even below. There was a reason why Hendry placed such importance on getting Furcal to lead-off.