Cubs front Office :Tejeda 3rd best in BB?

[Mizzou]

2004 was a career year for Tejada. OPS+ is good for comparing different eras, but I don't think it's useful in comparing a player's consecutive seasons.

 

Sure it is. To use an extreme example, if they raise the mound 5 inches next year, and only two players hit above .250, wouldn't it be a great year if you hit .255, even if you averaged .300 prior to that? Obviously there's no one thing to point to, nor is the change that drastic, but with steroid testing and other factors, offense was down this year. Comparatively speaking, Tejada was better in '05 than in '04.

 

I don't buy that. In 2004, he had more HR's, RBI's, Runs, Hits, total bases, Walks, fewer K's, a higher average, higher OBP, and a higher SLG. He was better in 04. If you want to factor in the rest of the league, then maybe he was relatively better in 05. But he was better in 04.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

Meat, I don't argue your position, I love Prior as much as the next guy. But what if Rich Hill or Angel Guzman are the real deal? Or Wade Miller is healthy? Do we have any shortstops that could similarly fill the bill (answer=no)?

 

We really, REALLY need that extra power bat in the lineup. I guess I'm wavering in my pessimism, given the experience of the last two years, in whether Prior's health will allow him to ever live up to his early promise.

 

I mean geez, compare October 2003 to February 2006. At a minimum, Dontrelle Willis, Jake Peavy, Johan Santana, Rich Harden and maybe even Felix Hernandez have passed him by. Is Mark Prior REALLY all that untouchable??

 

We know Guzman likely has the stuff if healthy, but he's like Wood. You can't count on him. Hill is going to get eaten alive by MLB batters, even though he has a ridiculous curve and decent fastball. Counting on him to put up positive VORP in his first couple of MLB seasons isn't a great idea, IMO. He could surprise us though.

 

I don't think Cedeno is the answer at SS from what I've seen hitting wise. He'll be more than fine in the field, but his lack of walks troubles me.

 

The loss in production from Prior (or Z's) departure isn't something we can stomach. You don't just go out and find another pitcher who can put up those numbers. Burnett was the closest example of a pitcher available in FA/trade this offseason, and he isn't even close to touching Z or Prior's (when 100% healthy) production. Look at how much freaking money Burnett raked in. If we overspend on someone like Burnett to replace Prior, that just makes our offense that much more limited. Our minor league arms are legit #5s, but that's a huge difference from Prior's numbers. Jeez, last year he had 30+ VORP while not at 100% health and missed time. Prior has the stuff. Look at his K rate. That's ridiculous when comparing him against the other SP in MLB. Top tier stuff.

 

I'm not worried about prior's health. He's not Wood or Guzman.

 

SS is a hard spot to fill, but we're not really losing much by not having a stud there. Who are legit studs at SS anyway? All of them (I don't consider Lopez a stud quite yet although he could be) are in the AL. Furcal and Rollins definitely aren't studs and the difference in their production and the next guys down on the list is minimal. We don't lose much against the competition by not having Tejada at SS. (I realize that makes SS a spot for huge improvement against the competition) However, Miggy is going to be 30 years old this season.

 

My problem is that this looks so attractive b/c of the pathetic OF we've assembled. I can stomach Murton. Pierre will be ok if his BABIP doesn't tank. Jones is nigh worthless.

 

I too want a big bat, but Tejada isn't the answer.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

2004 was a career year for Tejada. OPS+ is good for comparing different eras, but I don't think it's useful in comparing a player's consecutive seasons.

 

Sure it is. To use an extreme example, if they raise the mound 5 inches next year, and only two players hit above .250, wouldn't it be a great year if you hit .255, even if you averaged .300 prior to that? Obviously there's no one thing to point to, nor is the change that drastic, but with steroid testing and other factors, offense was down this year. Comparatively speaking, Tejada was better in '05 than in '04.

 

I don't buy that. In 2004, he had more HR's, RBI's, Runs, Hits, total bases, Walks, fewer K's, a higher average, higher OBP, and a higher SLG. He was better in 04. If you want to factor in the rest of the league, then maybe he was relatively better in 05. But he was better in 04.

 

Tejada's BABIP has been pretty high the last 2 seasons (and in 2002). It isn't coincidence that those were his 3 best years. However, BABIP wise, he was out of line with the rest of his career. Either that increase in BABIP is just part of his game, or he's going to take a dip in the next couple of seasons (to the 750-800 OPS) level.

[UK1679666180]

Although it goes against the trend of most of his career, his second half numbers were very bad for his standards.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

Fair points all, Don. I guess if Prior were Wood's age then I might agree. But as of now, I think Mark hasn't hit his peak, and thus his value remains very high.

 

BTW, Rogers is reporting that the Sox would have swooped in and made an offer for Prior had the Cubs dealt him to the O's.

 

Prior's value is at a low right now. If he puts up '03 numbers for a full season, he will be untouchable. As low as his value is, he's worth Tejada (this supposed #3 in all of baseball). Food for thought.

[Monco]

A big concern with Tejada are his very average numbers after the all-star break.His range will start to decline real soon .There also are roid whispers.But,he has been durable.Plays everyday, like a Gladiator.Oops,maybe I shouldn't make a Gladiator reference.

[WrigleyField 22]

When I read this I read it as "Third Best in Walks"

 

Cubs management might interpret his walk numbers as about third best. He doesn't get too many, so the bases can't get called clogged.

 

Edit-I should clarify he actually does get a decent number of walks, certainly not elite though.

[Wilson A2000]

Someone said Giles was better.

 

 

Uhhhhhh!

[frostwyrm]

If Hendry believes Tejada is the 3rd best player in baseball why didn't he try to sign him in 2003? It's not like Tejada was a well-kept secret back then. Was getting Greg Maddux more important than getting the 3rd best player in the game?

[sethuel1]

Someone said Giles was better.

 

 

Uhhhhhh!

 

yeah, i did. And I'll stand by it, too.

 

Three year splits:

Tejada .298/.348/.507

Giles .294/.407/.489

 

And Giles plays in an extreme pitcher's park.

 

Plus, Tejada is overrated defensively. he's nothing more than an average defensive shortstop.