Wouldn't Dunn Look Nice in Leftfield?

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Billy Beane is amazing. He wrote Moneyball and is the creator of sabermetrics.

 

And he makes a damn fine breakfast sausage. Or was that Jimmy Dean?

[Drew Doughty]

You bet it's Billy Beane. Jimmy Dean doesn't know a cow from a batting average.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Jimmy Dean doesn't know a cow from a batting average.

 

Apparently. You know, since sausage comes from pigs and all. :lol:

[Drew Doughty]

>_>

 

<_<

 

Right

 

:oops:

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Ok, sorry I somewhat misinterpreted what you guys said. :oops: All im saying is I don't think win shares are a valid statistic. I thought that this sabermetric excuse for a stat was used to show Dunn's superiority over D Lee. I misread the point of your post even though I still think stats like Winshare, Vorp, and all the rest of Billy Beane's caculator crap should be left out of baseball. In my personal opinion I dont think that Dunn is a difference maker at least for the Reds. Now if you put him on a team like the cubs that has a pitching staff he could make a difference with the extra pop he has. I apologize about my "run-on setences and gramatical errors" I dont take the time to worry about them on messge boards.

 

You do know, or maybe you don't, that Beane had nothing to do with the creation of those stats?

 

And why do they have no place in baseball? Can you explain to be what their faults are and why they are faulty metrics? Can you give me a more reliable one? Do you even know how reliable the ones you have attacked are?

 

My guess is you don't like his "caluculator crap" because it's too complex for you to compute or understand. Since you can't comprehend it, you'd rather not be bothered with it.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

My guess is you don't like his "caluculator crap" because it's too complex for you to compute or understand. Since you can't comprehend it, you'd rather not be bothered with it.

 

Vance, can explain how Win Shares are derived in complete detail? Thanks

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

My guess is you don't like his "caluculator crap" because it's too complex for you to compute or understand. Since you can't comprehend it, you'd rather not be bothered with it.

 

Vance, can explain how Win Shares are derived in complete detail? Thanks

 

Rather than waste space here, I'd simply point you to the book titled Win Shares by James. There's a detailed explanation as well as the mathematical forumlae used in the book.

 

I'll readily admit that my work with statistics would have never allowed me to come up with such a metric. I'm an ELA guy myself. On the other hand, it seems reliable to me.

 

And I'm not really trying to argue whether it is or isn't, but I don't think anyone can say whether it has a place in baseball unless they understand it well enough to say why it doesn't. Part of the reason everyone loves batting average so much is because it is so easy to compute.

 

This link gives a cursory explanation of the process.

[rjchapma]

Not to be disrespectful, but how many championships have teams who follow Bill James' philosophy won (not including the Red Sox and their 150 million dollar payroll).

My statement about sabermetrics not having a place in baseball was obviously hyperbolic. There is some room for these stats, but such complex formulas can be used by some to argue whatever point they try to make. James is obviously a smart man, but I feel he is given much more credit than he deserves. Also it's not because I dont understand these formulas, in fact its the exact opposite.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Not to be disrespectful, but how many championships have teams who follow Bill James' philosophy won (not including the Red Sox and their 150 million dollar payroll).

My statement about sabermetrics not having a place in baseball was obviously hyperbolic. There is some room for these stats, but such complex formulas can be used by some to argue whatever point they try to make. James is obviously a smart man, but I feel he is given much more credit than he deserves. Also it's not because I dont understand these formulas, in fact its the exact opposite.

 

Honestly, I don't believe that you understand what those statistcs represent at all. I'm not even one that is a huge fan of Win Shares or VORP myself(I'm sure CardsFaninChiTown could tell you that :wink:), but dismissing "Billy Beane's calculator crap" out of hand is ignorant, especially when it's far from the only thing pointing to Adam Dunn being a good player.

[JD42K]

think Dunn is pretty good(be a whole lot better if he cut down his K's and hit more than .250), so I'd say that the Reds ALSO think that he's pretty good and have decided that they aren't gonna move him anywhere except to first base in Cincinatti.

 

Aramis Ramirez would be a lot better if he hit .450, but that doesn't mean he's not a very good player. A low batting average and/or a high number of K's don't negate actual production, but it's more difficult to produce with them. In Dunn's case, he's still one of the best hitters in the game, so it matters much much less than say, Corey Patterson.

 

Ok...you're argument doesn't make any sense because NO ONE is going to hit .450, but it's not out of the question for a guy to hit over .266(which Dunn has never done). Calling Dunn one of the best hitters in the game is a bit crazy, even for this site.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

think Dunn is pretty good(be a whole lot better if he cut down his K's and hit more than .250), so I'd say that the Reds ALSO think that he's pretty good and have decided that they aren't gonna move him anywhere except to first base in Cincinatti.

 

Aramis Ramirez would be a lot better if he hit .450, but that doesn't mean he's not a very good player. A low batting average and/or a high number of K's don't negate actual production, but it's more difficult to produce with them. In Dunn's case, he's still one of the best hitters in the game, so it matters much much less than say, Corey Patterson.

 

Ok...you're argument doesn't make any sense because NO ONE is going to hit .450, but it's not out of the question for a guy to hit over .266(which Dunn has never done). Calling Dunn one of the best hitters in the game is a bit crazy, even for this site.

 

Not crazy at all. The point is that a low batting average(or number of K's) isn't something that takes away from the production already provided. It makes it more difficult to achieve, but Dunn's proven able to do so. Also, asking Dunn to hit for a higher average might have a worse effect. If he tries to make contact more, he'll hit for less power, and may on the whole be less productive. It's the same maddening approach that Pierre and Neifi have. Do anything to avoid the strikeout, even if you hurt your production on the whole.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Not to be disrespectful, but how many championships have teams who follow Bill James' philosophy won (not including the Red Sox and their 150 million dollar payroll).

My statement about sabermetrics not having a place in baseball was obviously hyperbolic. There is some room for these stats, but such complex formulas can be used by some to argue whatever point they try to make. James is obviously a smart man, but I feel he is given much more credit than he deserves. Also it's not because I dont understand these formulas, in fact its the exact opposite.

 

Why can't we count the Red Sox? Bill James works for them, so wouldn't they be the best example of a team making use of his metrics?

 

Disregard win shares and vorp, a simple stat such as OPS shows that Adam Dunn is a difference maker. He made enough of a difference that the Reds led the league in runs scored.

 

He held up his part of making the difference, unfortunately for him the Reds pitching didn't hold up there end.

[fromthestretch]

Regardless of how much of a difference you feel Dunn makes for the Reds, there's no question he'd make a hell of a big impact in the Cubs lineup. If you replace Jones with Dunn and bat him between Lee and Ramirez, a lot of pitchers would not look forward to facing the Cubs.

[rjchapma]

I agree with you when you aren't using those other statistics, but the bottomline that I was tryin to make before I flipped out was that Dunn if put on a better team would be more of a difference maker. I don't consider him one when he is on a team that finished as poorly as the Reds did. Now if the Cubs got him then he probably could be a difference maker because he ads more pop to a team that has pitching unlike the Reds(Paul Wilson, Ramon Ortiz,etc......). So don't get me wrong Vance I just disagree with those statistics(Winshare,Vorp,etc....) and hope that you understand that im not against getting Dunn.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I agree with you when you aren't using those other statistics, but the bottomline that I was tryin to make before I flipped out was that Dunn if put on a better team would be more of a difference maker. I don't consider him one when he is on a team that finished as poorly as the Reds did. Now if the Cubs got him then he probably could be a difference maker because he ads more pop to a team that has pitching unlike the Reds(Paul Wilson, Ramon Ortiz,etc......). So don't get me wrong Vance I just disagree with those statistics(Winshare,Vorp,etc....) and hope that you understand that im not against getting Dunn.

 

Of course any good player looks better on a good team. Take Arod for example. As a Ranger, I guess he didn't make much difference since they sucked, but he surely made a difference on the Yankees. We could say Lee wasn't a difference maker last year because the Cubs still lost. But that's ridiculous. Lee made a hell of a difference. Zambrano must not be a difference maker too by that requirement.

 

Dunn is a difference maker regardless of whether he's on the Yankees or the Reds or the Royals. His difference may not be seen in the final results depending on his supporting cast, but if you replaced Dunn on the Reds with a replacement level player, I doubt the finish near first in runs scored.

 

Win Shares, whether you like it or not, clearly demonstrated Dunn's value to the Reds. He led them with 28. The next highest player was Griffey at 22. Dunn contributed 2 more wins to the team than Griffey did.

 

By saying that he wasn't a difference maker because the Reds didn't win means that there are no difference makers on teams under .500.

[wolf stansson]

Albert Pujols.....Alex Rodriguez....Barry Bonds

What do Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, Barry Bonds, and Adam Dunn all have in common?

 

They all have 900+ ops' for their careers. But no you are completely right. Dunn sucks.

[Mark_R]

Albert Pujols.....Alex Rodriguez....Barry Bonds

What do Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, Barry Bonds, and Adam Dunn all have in common?

 

They all have 900+ ops' for their careers. But no you are completely right. Dunn sucks.

 

Pffffft, by only one measly point. ;)

[noisesquared]

Why does Dunn get a free pass on his home/road splits? Soriano was beat up pretty bad around here because his stats seemed to be inflated by a hitter-friendly home park. Dunn's 3 year splits are .985 OPS home, .836 OPS away. A-Rod, Bonds, and Pujols 3 year split road OPS are all very solid (1.+ for Pujols and Bonds, and .940 for A-Rod).

 

Granted an .836 road OPS isn't bad at all, but I don't know if I'd qualify a guy whose only impressive numbers come at home as a difference maker in the category of some other .900 OPS guys.

[rjchapma]

That is why i said that he would be a difference maker for the cubbies. I agree with everything you are saying Vance. I just am not a fan of the sabermetric system whether it is right or not. I want Dunn plain and simple if we can get him. Who's a better overall player and just making sure you guys agree DLee is much better.

[rocket]

Why does Dunn get a free pass on his home/road splits? Soriano was beat up pretty bad around here because his stats seemed to be inflated by a hitter-friendly home park. Dunn's 3 year splits are .985 OPS home, .836 OPS away. A-Rod, Bonds, and Pujols 3 year split road OPS are all very solid (1.+ for Pujols and Bonds, and .940 for A-Rod).

 

Granted an .836 road OPS isn't bad at all, but I don't know if I'd qualify a guy whose only impressive numbers come at home as a difference maker in the category of some other .900 OPS guys.

 

In 2004 Dunn had an Away OPS of .925. His home/road splits aren't nearly as concerning as someone like Soriano's.

 

In 2003 he was awful away, 2004 he was great away, and 2005 he was okay away. I'm not that concerned about it.

[ThePenguin11]

Wow, I had a feeling this would be a long thread. To say Dunn is coveted by a segment of Cubs fans (myself included - within reason) is the understatement of the century.

 

Dunn's not coming here, not now and most likely not at the deadline. He doesn't stink and he's not among the games "greatest" hitters. At least not yet. We should really let sleeping dogs lie until there's any indication the Cubs feel they need a new left-fielder.

[rjchapma]

Wait I'm just wondering who said Dunn was among the games "Greatest Hitters"? Just wondering :lol:

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

That is why i said that he would be a difference maker for the cubbies. I agree with everything you are saying Vance. I just am not a fan of the sabermetric system whether it is right or not. I want Dunn plain and simple if we can get him. Who's a better overall player and just making sure you guys agree DLee is much better.

 

Lee was much better in 2005, but for their careers, Dunn has looked better. Based on age, I would probably prefer Dunn as well.

[rjchapma]

I would only prefer Dunn if he was playing outfield for us. Just my personal opinion, but DLee numbers at least his power numbers are said to be what they thought he could hit. I mean probably not as good, but around there. Plus hes a much better fielder probably the best fielding first baseman in the game. Don't get me wrong if we can get Dunn get him, but don't put him at first just because of hist numbers in the past compared to DLee's.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I would only prefer Dunn if he was playing outfield for us. Just my personal opinion, but DLee numbers at least his power numbers are said to be what they thought he could hit. I mean probably not as good, but around there. Plus hes a much better fielder probably the best fielding first baseman in the game. Don't get me wrong if we can get Dunn get him, but don't put him at first just because of hist numbers in the past compared to DLee's.

 

I don't think I was ever suggesting replacing Lee with Dunn. I was just suggesting that looking at their career stats and also factoring age, Dunn has been the better player.

 

Lee is no doubt the better defensive player. He was the better all-around player last year, both offensively and defensively. However, Dunn's career numbers dwarf Lee's and Dunn is younger.