Why is there so many position player flops?

[Scotti]

I want to thank UK, Craig, Scotti, Tim and others who provided the rest of us with an insightful and thought-provoking thread. Discussions like these are the reason why this website is one of the best in baseball. =D>

 

You're welcome.

 

Cubs have only drafted 3 1st round players during the ten years since Hendry took over the draft. But all three were top-6 picks. I think it's reasonable to be hope for more than Nate Spears out of three top-6 picks.

 

Top 6 picks may seem to be special since they are high but here are seven successive players drafted 6th (Craig’s criterion based presumably on Harvey being drafted 6th):

 

*’93 - Steve Soderstrom

*’94 - McKay Christensen

*’95 - Jaime Jones

*’96 - Seth Greisinger

*’97 - Geoff Goetz

*’98 - Ryan Mills (yes, THAT Ryan Mills)

*’99 - Josh Girdley

 

Even Corey Patterson’s meager career stats eclipse the entirety of that list. In fact, only three of the seven have seen MLB playing time. I’m not suggesting you can’t draft a guy 6th and get a good player. The guy drafted 6th in ‘92 was Derek Jeter and he’s been excellent. And the guy drafted in ’00 was Baldelli and, while he hasn’t been a star, he’s been good as well. But the entire league bombed drafting 6th for seven drafts in a row.

 

The ’01 and ’02 6th picks—Karp and Greinke respectively—have languished in the minors (Karp) or struggled in the majors (Greinke was 5-17 5.80 last year with an impossible 233 hits in 183 IP—the average batter against him was an all-star .309/.362/.483/.845). The jury is still out in regard to Greinke but it’s certainly still out with Harvey, right?

 

So of the ten drafts prior to Harvey’s only one of the 6th picks has made a consistent, positive mark at the MLB level (certainly only one better than, say, CP’s career) and that guy (Baldelli) missed all of last year with an injury.

 

I also think it good to remember that since before his Sr. year of high school was finished Harvey was likened favorably to a career .265 hitter who AVERAGED 129 K’s per 162 games. No one should be expecting a .300 hitter out of the guy. It’s perhaps a bit too soon to go all “Nate Spears” on Harvey.

 

Over that ten years, the Cubs have taken 16 position players in rounds 1-3. Thanks to compensation picks they've have a little more than 30 selections over rounds 1-3 during those ten years, but position players have absorbed almost half of the rounds 1-3 picks. Having taken almost half of the picks during rounds 1-3, and all three of the top-6 picks, I think it's fair to be disappointed in the position outcome.

 

But the college picks have been concentrated in the 3rd round, where the odds of any pick becoming good is slim…

 

If the odds of a 3rd round pick “becoming good is slim” then why would you include the 3rd round in the equation, Craig? Again, the Cubs first rounders favor pitchers over hitters 10 to 3 (and Johnson was their first pick in his draft). Including rounds “where the odds of any pick becoming good is slim” doesn’t seem to illustrate anything in an evenhanded manner. The Cubs drafted Mark Pawelek in the first round last year and Mark Holliman in the third. Beeg difference. The Cubs have CLEARLY selected pitchers with the vast majority of their top picks and we really shouldn’t expect to see results as if they hadn’t.

 

However, as I said before, the position prospects haven’t been, and aren’t currently, bad at all. The Cubs did draft and develop Hinske for all but one of his minor league years and he went ROY with Toronto. The Cubs traded the likes of Choi, Hill and Harris for parts of Lee, Ramirez and Nomar.

 

The system picked up Murton and Moore from other teams and as Cubs both have exceeded what the other teams were getting out of them (by far). One would have expected them to tank if the system didn’t have good instructors. There’s Cedeno (who has Jeter-esque tools). Certainly Pie is a guy any team would love to have. As I said Harvey is progressing as well as one should expect. I think Sing is very underrated (both he and Dubois were 24 in AA and Sing went .276/.404/.538/.942 to .269/.367/.458/.825 for Dubois). Erik Patterson was passed over by the league many times and he hit .325/.400/.517/917 in his first year (as a middle infielder!!!). Dopirak had a bad ’05 but didn’t he have a great ’04? Is ’04 all credited to his skill and ’05 all credited to awful instruction (“Hey Dope, why not swing at pitches you can’t hit this year”)?

 

And I almost forgot that CP got us Nate Spears.

[Scotti]

And the LA organization was not in great shape when Depo came in...

 

When Depodesta came to the Dogers BA ranked their system 2nd. That was mostly due to their prior two drafts--White's drafts. The LA org as a whole may have been weak but that had nothing to do with what White and his scouts were doing.

[Scotti]

Tim, first of all , that was not meant as a slap at moneyball, i have said before on my first thread about Scouts Honor, i believe both books glorify their end of the argument. Writers not the people involved wrote the book. However in the chapter on evaluating the prospective talent for the June Draft . The chapter made it clear that they had a formula , that favored taking college athletes based on stats. I believe the term bells and whistles went off on Depo's computer when the right numbers came up. Second stat with the dodgers Scouts Honor pointed out the exact names of scouts fired when Depo took over, plus he dropped the number of hs picks in half his first two years on the job. The fact he favors less scouting and more numbers cannot be denied. Thats his right as a GM or ex GM to make those decisions. My point was to use him as a point of reference not make fun of moneyball. I know you read the rest of my points showing i would favor a better balance. I would favor a throw the darts technique , if i saw improvement. Thanks Tim I appreciate your input Coach L

You may want to review Oakland's 2005 draft if you actually believe this. You might just open your mind about how close-minded their approach is.

 

I don't think that Oakland's drafting 7 high schoolers of their first 20 picks in '05 had anything to do with being "open-minded." I think they finally looked at the mirror and saw how foolish taking 0 of 20 and 3 of 20 the prior two years was. That philosophy was really the silliest sports related philosophy I've ever heard.

 

It speaks to arrogance that they ever did it in the first place.

[USSoccer]

Tim, first of all , that was not meant as a slap at moneyball, i have said before on my first thread about Scouts Honor, i believe both books glorify their end of the argument. Writers not the people involved wrote the book. However in the chapter on evaluating the prospective talent for the June Draft . The chapter made it clear that they had a formula , that favored taking college athletes based on stats. I believe the term bells and whistles went off on Depo's computer when the right numbers came up. Second stat with the dodgers Scouts Honor pointed out the exact names of scouts fired when Depo took over, plus he dropped the number of hs picks in half his first two years on the job. The fact he favors less scouting and more numbers cannot be denied. Thats his right as a GM or ex GM to make those decisions. My point was to use him as a point of reference not make fun of moneyball. I know you read the rest of my points showing i would favor a better balance. I would favor a throw the darts technique , if i saw improvement. Thanks Tim I appreciate your input Coach L

You may want to review Oakland's 2005 draft if you actually believe this. You might just open your mind about how close-minded their approach is.

 

I don't think that Oakland's drafting 7 high schoolers of their first 20 picks in '05 had anything to do with being "open-minded." I think they finally looked at the mirror and saw how foolish taking 0 of 20 and 3 of 20 the prior two years was. That philosophy was really the silliest sports related philosophy I've ever heard.

 

It speaks to arrogance that they ever did it in the first place.

 

I think it was more about the fact that they needed to make sure the money they spent on draft picks translated to MLB success, or at least contribution, and saw college players at the time as being a better investment. 5 years later, or whatever, that may have changed, to the point that HS players might be more undervalued than before, and thusly a better investment.

[treebird]

Tim, first of all , that was not meant as a slap at moneyball, i have said before on my first thread about Scouts Honor, i believe both books glorify their end of the argument. Writers not the people involved wrote the book. However in the chapter on evaluating the prospective talent for the June Draft . The chapter made it clear that they had a formula , that favored taking college athletes based on stats. I believe the term bells and whistles went off on Depo's computer when the right numbers came up. Second stat with the dodgers Scouts Honor pointed out the exact names of scouts fired when Depo took over, plus he dropped the number of hs picks in half his first two years on the job. The fact he favors less scouting and more numbers cannot be denied. Thats his right as a GM or ex GM to make those decisions. My point was to use him as a point of reference not make fun of moneyball. I know you read the rest of my points showing i would favor a better balance. I would favor a throw the darts technique , if i saw improvement. Thanks Tim I appreciate your input Coach L

You may want to review Oakland's 2005 draft if you actually believe this. You might just open your mind about how close-minded their approach is.

 

I don't think that Oakland's drafting 7 high schoolers of their first 20 picks in '05 had anything to do with being "open-minded." I think they finally looked at the mirror and saw how foolish taking 0 of 20 and 3 of 20 the prior two years was. That philosophy was really the silliest sports related philosophy I've ever heard.

 

It speaks to arrogance that they ever did it in the first place.

 

I think it was more about the fact that they needed to make sure the money they spent on draft picks translated to MLB success, or at least contribution, and saw college players at the time as being a better investment. 5 years later, or whatever, that may have changed, to the point that HS players might be more undervalued than before, and thusly a better investment.

 

it's way more fun to just trash the a's for being different though.

[USSoccer]

Tim, first of all , that was not meant as a slap at moneyball, i have said before on my first thread about Scouts Honor, i believe both books glorify their end of the argument. Writers not the people involved wrote the book. However in the chapter on evaluating the prospective talent for the June Draft . The chapter made it clear that they had a formula , that favored taking college athletes based on stats. I believe the term bells and whistles went off on Depo's computer when the right numbers came up. Second stat with the dodgers Scouts Honor pointed out the exact names of scouts fired when Depo took over, plus he dropped the number of hs picks in half his first two years on the job. The fact he favors less scouting and more numbers cannot be denied. Thats his right as a GM or ex GM to make those decisions. My point was to use him as a point of reference not make fun of moneyball. I know you read the rest of my points showing i would favor a better balance. I would favor a throw the darts technique , if i saw improvement. Thanks Tim I appreciate your input Coach L

You may want to review Oakland's 2005 draft if you actually believe this. You might just open your mind about how close-minded their approach is.

 

I don't think that Oakland's drafting 7 high schoolers of their first 20 picks in '05 had anything to do with being "open-minded." I think they finally looked at the mirror and saw how foolish taking 0 of 20 and 3 of 20 the prior two years was. That philosophy was really the silliest sports related philosophy I've ever heard.

 

It speaks to arrogance that they ever did it in the first place.

 

I think it was more about the fact that they needed to make sure the money they spent on draft picks translated to MLB success, or at least contribution, and saw college players at the time as being a better investment. 5 years later, or whatever, that may have changed, to the point that HS players might be more undervalued than before, and thusly a better investment.

 

it's way more fun to just trash the a's for being different though.

 

well, duh. if billy beane hadn't wanted attention or criticism, he shouldn't have written that book. :P

[Radar3454]

A move to AA this year will benefit [scott Moore] greatly.

 

Why'd you think that?

 

He has spent the last two years in the pitcher friendly parks of the Florida State League. Dopirak will see the same kind of improvement in the SL. Some people forget that Moore is an extreme talent and at one point in his career had a huge upside. I have seen Moore numerous times and he is a solid prospect and a huge sleeper in this system. Remember Moore was so highly thought of at one point that he was taken #8 overall in 2002. That is in front of both Hermida and Francouer.

The SL is not much more of a hitters' league than the FSL. Also, Pringles is pretty hard on hitters, in particular. I'm not sure either Moore or Dopirak will get that much of a boost by moving there. That's not to say that they won't do better in 2006, it's just that I don't think the move itself is going to do it for them.

 

Both of those guys can make huge strides if they can increase their contact rate. Both have pretty high potential and are still young enough to reach it. I would be a bit more optimistic for the two of them in 2006 if Von Joshua were still there at AA.

 

What happenned to Von Joshua?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

A move to AA this year will benefit [scott Moore] greatly.

 

Why'd you think that?

 

He has spent the last two years in the pitcher friendly parks of the Florida State League. Dopirak will see the same kind of improvement in the SL. Some people forget that Moore is an extreme talent and at one point in his career had a huge upside. I have seen Moore numerous times and he is a solid prospect and a huge sleeper in this system. Remember Moore was so highly thought of at one point that he was taken #8 overall in 2002. That is in front of both Hermida and Francouer.

The SL is not much more of a hitters' league than the FSL. Also, Pringles is pretty hard on hitters, in particular. I'm not sure either Moore or Dopirak will get that much of a boost by moving there. That's not to say that they won't do better in 2006, it's just that I don't think the move itself is going to do it for them.

 

Both of those guys can make huge strides if they can increase their contact rate. Both have pretty high potential and are still young enough to reach it. I would be a bit more optimistic for the two of them in 2006 if Von Joshua were still there at AA.

 

What happenned to Von Joshua?

 

AAA? I think?

[Tim]

Yep, Von Joshua is going to be the hitting coach at AAA this season.

[USSoccer]

Yep, Von Joshua is going to be the hitting coach at AAA this season.

 

Where is Pie going to start 2006? AAA?

[Tim]

Yep, Von Joshua is going to be the hitting coach at AAA this season.

 

Where is Pie going to start 2006? AAA?

Most likely. Though a really bad showing in ST could land him back at West Tenn.

[USSoccer]

Yep, Von Joshua is going to be the hitting coach at AAA this season.

 

Where is Pie going to start 2006? AAA?

Most likely. Though a really bad showing in ST could land him back at West Tenn.

 

I wonder why they would put their best hitting coach in the least useful spot in the system. AAA would seem to me to be a waste of his talents.

[Scotti]

Tim, first of all , that was not meant as a slap at moneyball, i have said before on my first thread about Scouts Honor, i believe both books glorify their end of the argument. Writers not the people involved wrote the book. However in the chapter on evaluating the prospective talent for the June Draft . The chapter made it clear that they had a formula , that favored taking college athletes based on stats. I believe the term bells and whistles went off on Depo's computer when the right numbers came up. Second stat with the dodgers Scouts Honor pointed out the exact names of scouts fired when Depo took over, plus he dropped the number of hs picks in half his first two years on the job. The fact he favors less scouting and more numbers cannot be denied. Thats his right as a GM or ex GM to make those decisions. My point was to use him as a point of reference not make fun of moneyball. I know you read the rest of my points showing i would favor a better balance. I would favor a throw the darts technique , if i saw improvement. Thanks Tim I appreciate your input Coach L

You may want to review Oakland's 2005 draft if you actually believe this. You might just open your mind about how close-minded their approach is.

 

I don't think that Oakland's drafting 7 high schoolers of their first 20 picks in '05 had anything to do with being "open-minded." I think they finally looked at the mirror and saw how foolish taking 0 of 20 and 3 of 20 the prior two years was. That philosophy was really the silliest sports related philosophy I've ever heard.

 

It speaks to arrogance that they ever did it in the first place.

 

I think it was more about the fact that they needed to make sure the money they spent on draft picks translated to MLB success, or at least contribution, and saw college players at the time as being a better investment. 5 years later, or whatever, that may have changed, to the point that HS players might be more undervalued than before, and thusly a better investment.

 

it's way more fun to just trash the a's for being different though.

 

Heh. If I wanted to "trash" someone for being "different" I don't suppose I would have needed to look up each of their last 3 drafts and count how many h.s. and picks they had in their top 20 picks for each draft. Your argument makes about as much sense as arbitrarily eliminating half the population of draft eligible players from contention.

 

3 players in their respective top 40 speaks for itself. And so does a nearly balanced 7 in 20.

[craig]

I think it is interesting that Oakland took a lot of HS players, including HS pitchers, after not doing so for years. Some possible reasons for the switch:

 

1. They'be been stupid. They finally wized up and caught up to the baseball world, are no longer any dumber than the rest.

 

I think there is merit to this hypothesis. My recall is that BA studies have indicated that in first round, all studies have indicated better average returns for college than HS draft picks. But in 2nd round and beyond, that isn't true.

 

2. Perhaps they changed because baseball supply-and-demand has shifted. In past, perhaps college players were undervalued and HS players overvalued. Now, perhaps that's changed (perhaps in part because the Oakland influence has spread...). Perhaps now the market valuation is perfectly balanced, or perhaps if anything swung such that HS talent is now the undervalued one. (Or perhaps that's true after the first round...)

 

3. Scotti said it was arrogant to ignore half of the draft field. But perhaps they were a team that had only half the scouting staff. Do you do a half-baked job on all players, or do a competitively thorough job on the guys you do scout, but you just elect to scout only half of the guys because you can't afford to thoroughly scout everybody? I dunno. Maybe they can now afford to scout more HS guys? Or perhaps last year they decided that if they had to scout onlyhalf of the guys in the 2nd-6th round range, they'd be better off scouting the HS group rather than the college guys?

======

 

Whatever the reason, the fact that Oakland spend 6 of its 7 draft picks in rounds 2-6 on HS players, and 5 of those HS picks on HS pitchers, reflects a change in Oakland policy. For people who think Oakland is smarter than the Cubs, it's hard to justify a view that picking HS or picking HS pitchers is dumb (at least in rounds 2-6) based on Oakland's policy.

 

there are high risks associated with drafting HS players, almost no matter how high they go. (See Corey, MOntanez, and Harvey). But there are high risks associated with drafting almost any amateur player.

 

And by the time you get to the 2nd round, the risks are enormously high. A pitcher might fail because of injury. Or his stuff just isn't enough. Or his control isn't enough. The risks associated with HS guys may be no higher than the risks associated with alternative choices pretty quickly in the draft.

[Outshined_One]

2. Perhaps they changed because baseball supply-and-demand has shifted. In past, perhaps college players were undervalued and HS players overvalued. Now, perhaps that's changed (perhaps in part because the Oakland influence has spread...). Perhaps now the market valuation is perfectly balanced, or perhaps if anything swung such that HS talent is now the undervalued one. (Or perhaps that's true after the first round...)

 

That's what I always took Moneyball to be about. It wasn't necessarily that they were going after guys based on stats or patience at the plate or whatever. It was more that BB was trying to exploit the market for its weaknesses. As you mention in your post, Oakland's influence has definitely spread to other organizations. All of a sudden, guys who would be available for Oakland in the first few rounds because organizations would overlook those guys are now being taken by teams following Oakland's model (or something close to it).

 

In other words, the market seems to have started to compensate for Oakland's exploitation. Now it's time for BB and the gang to look in other directions. We'll see how those three HS arms work out.

[CubsMinorLeagueReport]

Yep, Von Joshua is going to be the hitting coach at AAA this season.

 

Where is Pie going to start 2006? AAA?

Most likely. Though a really bad showing in ST could land him back at West Tenn.

 

That would not be the worst thing for his development either...I just hope the Cubs begin being patient with him since they have Pierre at the big league level...