Roster Moves 2003-2006: How does the '06 team stack up?

[CubFanPhilly]

The apparent direction of this team is a bit depressing. I'm less optimistic than I typically am this time of year. Is it possible for the Cubs to win 90-95 games? Yes. Should we expect them to? No. My guess right now is 2006 will be another season of around .500 baseball.

 

I wondered if I was being too pesimistic, so I thought I'd look back to opening day rosters during the Hendry/Baker era:

 

Rosters

          2003              2004               2005              2006
C          D. Miller         Barrett            Barrett           Barrett     
1B         Choi/Karros       D. Lee             D. Lee            D. Lee
2B         Grudzielanek      Walker/Grudz       Walker            N. Perez/Walker
3B         Bellhorn          A. Ramirez         A. Ramirez        A. Ramirez
SS         A. Gonzalez       A. Gonzalez        Garciaparra  (DL) Cedeno
LF         Alou              Alou               Hollands/Dubois   Murton
CF         Patterson         Patterson          Patterson         Pierre
RF         Sosa              Sosa               Burnitz           J. Jones

Bench      Karros/Choi       Grudz/Walker (DL)  Dubois/Hollands   Mabry
          Martinez          Martinez           N. Perez          Walker/Perez
          O'Leary           Hollandsworth      Hairston          Hairston
          Goodwin           Goodwin            Macias            Mabry
          L. Harris         Macias             Blanco            Grissom
          Bako              Bako                                 Blanco

SP         Wood              Wood               Zambrano          Zambrano
          Prior             Prior        (DL)  Prior        (DL) Prior
          Zambrano          Zambrano           Wood              Maddux
          Clement           Maddux             Maddux            Rusch
          Estes             Clement            Dempster          Williams
                            Rusch              Rusch             Miller     (DL)
                                                                 Wood       (DL)

BP         Guthrie           Mercker      (DL)  Ohman             Ohman
          Alphonseca        Hawkins            Fox          (DL) Howry    
          Remlinger         Remilinger   (DL)  Remlinger         Eyre
          Farnsworth        Farnsworth         Borowski          Williamson
          Veres             Beltran            Wuertz            Wuertz
                            Wuertz             Bartosh           

CP         Borowski          Borowski           Hawkins           Dempster


Farm:      Kelton            Dubois             Murton            Pie
          B. Hill           B. Harris          Cedeno            Theriot
          J. Cruz           Kelton             Fontenot          Fontenot
          R. Beck           Dempster     (DL)  Williamson   (DL) R. Hill
          Mitre             Leicester          Novoa             Guzman
          Wellemeyer        Wellemeyer         Leicester         Novoa
                            Leicester          Van Buren         

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trade/Roster Activity

          2003              2004               2005              2006
Trades:    Hernandez         D. Lee             Hairston          Pierre
            (Bellhorn)       (Choi)            Fontenot           (Nolasco)
                             (Nannini)          (Sosa + $16 mil)  (Pinto)
          A. Ramirez                                              (Mitre)
          Lofton            Barrett            Novoa
            (Hill)           (Miller)           (Farnsworth)       
            (Hernandez)
            (Bruback)       Pratt              Gerut           
                            R. Lewis            (Dubois)
          Glanville          (Cruz)            
            (Fransz)         (Smyth)           Lawton
                                                (Gerut)
          Simon             Garciaparra
            (Sadler)        Murton
                             (Harris)
                             (J. Jones)
                             (F. Beltran)
                             (A. Gonzalez)

Injuries:  Patterson (83 G)  Prior    (118 IP)  Nomar     (62 G)
          Sosa     (137 G)  Wood     (140 IP)  Wood     (66 IP)
          Grudz    (121 G)  A-Ram     (145 G)  Prior   (166 IP)
                            Sosa      (126 G)  A-Ram    (123 G)
                            Borowski  (21 IP)  Borowski (11 IP)
                            Remlinger (36 IP)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Results/(NL Rank)

          2003              2004               2005              
Team ERA:  3.83 (3rd)       3.81 (3rd)          4.19 (9th)
Team WHIP: 1.32 (4th)       1.30 (3rd)          1.34 (6th)
BP ERA:    4.16 (8th)       4.03 (9th)          4.24 (9th)
BP WHIP:   1.35 (6th)       1.39 (9th)          1.45 (11th)

Team AVG: .259  (11th)      .268 (6th)          .270 (2nd)
Team OBP: .323  (13th)      .328 (11th)         .324 (11th)
Home Runs: 172  (8th)        235 (1st)           194 (2nd)
Runs:      724  (9th)        789 (7th)           703 (9th)

FINISH:    88-74 NLDS       89-73 3rd           79-83 4th
 PYTHAG:   85-77  +3        94-68 -5           80-82 -1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Payroll
          2003              2004               2005              2006
Approx
Payroll:   $84 mil.         $94 mil.            $98 Mil.        $100-105 Mil. 
                                                 $86 (ex Sosa)    (@ $95-96 now)


S Pitch:   $14.8  (17.5%)   $23.3 (24.8%)       $26.7 (27.5%)   $31.8 (33.8%)
B Pen:     $11.5  (13.6%)   $11.5 (12.2%)       $ 9.6 ( 9.9%)   $16.9 (18.0%)
Lineup:    $51.8  (61.6%)   $53.6 (57.0%)       $56.5 (58.2%)   $38.1 (40.5%)
Bench:     $ 6.0  ( 7.1%)   $ 5.9 ( 6.3%)       $ 4.2 ( 4.4%)   $ 7.2 ( 7.7%)

The resource allocation decisions are interesting. The bullpen should be deeper than it's been in years, but that's no surprise when you look at what the Cubs are spending there. Starting pitching is more expensive with the Wood and Maddux contracts (both busts through '05). That's a trend that will continue as Z and Prior become more expensive.

 

The '06 OF contends with some of the weakest I've seen as a Cubs fan. The team desperately needs another power bat and more OBP up and down the lineup. It's not obvious where the former is coming from and the latter will only happen with a serious overhaul. The bench hasn't been strong any of these years and '06 is no exception - very little power and other than Hairston there's a huge step down from the starters to the bench players.

 

The most striking thing of all, though, is how Hendry has used $94-95 million to assemble a team with such glaring holes. It's as though the team is built for .500 baseball - deep, but mediocre throughout.

 

Cross your fingers Cubs fans.

 

CFP

[Balsa]

Wow. We were certainly lucky to have been allowed into the playoffs in 2003. But unlike many who deride Hendry, I don't see a continual slide, in fact it looks like 2004 was the year in just about everything except for injuries and bullpen.

 

But there's no disagreeing that 2005 was a massive bust.

[Northwoods Fan]

This from the DesMoines Register this morning.

 

http://desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060123/SPORTS03/601230349/1014

 

La Russa was impressed Chicago added lefty Scott Eyre and set-up man Bob Howry to its bullpen.

 

"I think the Cubs made really good moves," he said.

 

Basically LaRussa said he's not worried about his team and thinks we have improved a lot because of the bull pen additions. It's all pitching, you know. Except for batting, also essential.

 

Northwoods Fan

[CuseCubFan69]

This from the DesMoines Register this morning.

 

http://desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060123/SPORTS03/601230349/1014

 

La Russa was impressed Chicago added lefty Scott Eyre and set-up man Bob Howry to its bullpen.

 

"I think the Cubs made really good moves," he said.

 

Basically LaRussa said he's not worried about his team and thinks we have improved a lot because of the bull pen additions. It's all pitching, you know. Except for batting, also essential.

 

Northwoods Fan

 

I'd like the Cubs moves if I were LaRussa too.

[CubRock2]

Why do we keep comparing out teams to the '03 team. They were dead lucky to get into the playoffs with 88 wins, and it won't happen this year. Even though the NL stinks, I'd be shocked if 88 wins get us a division again. Comparing this team to a slightly above average team shouldn't be a source of hope.

 

That being said, I still don't think anyone in the Central is better. Not saying that we're all that great, but who - on paper - is better than the Cubs? The Stros/Cards/Cubs/Brewers have to be considered the favorites simply based on most teams being equal.

[CuseCubFan69]

Nice post CFP. I think the only way the Cubs will win is if playeers like Jones, Barrett and Pierre have career years and the rest have their average ones while the Cubs have an injury free year.

[Abe Frohman]

I don't agree - I think the Cubs have improved significantly.

 

* Added leadoff man Juan Pierre. Most importantly, this means we now have a LEGITIMATE leadoff hitter that will change the face of this offense. An additional bonus is that Corey Patterson will not be in the lineup anymore - almost a guaranteed out. Think about it.

 

* The bullpen is improved - taking a lot of pressure off of the starters to go deep. A BIG problem in 2005.

 

* The OF defense is solid. Jacque Jones is a good pickup. There is relative speed at all three OF positions. Pierre & Jones are known to cover a lot of ground, and we won't have to see Jerry Hairston diving for balls that he should catch standing on two feet (not to mention his fist pumping as if it were a Sportscenter Highlight).

 

* There is no telling how good Ronny Cedeno & Matt Murton will be. Murton showed us that he is a tough out, so I am thinking if he shows signs of power - he could fill that #5 hole for us.

[RockTheIvy]

The one glaring difference from the 03-04 teams, which makes me sad, is that those teams had an OF. At that point, both Sammy and Moises would give you a +800 OPS. It didn't matter what Patterson did. This year, I wouldn't expect that kind of production, but it could happen.

[Abe Frohman]

I agree, RTI. Jones is not an intimidating offensive factor, though he should be solid. Don't know what to expect from Murton, but have an idea.

 

I would like to see the Cubs offense stacked with guys who can draw the walk and run. We haven't been too good at producing runs, despite the high team batting average.

 

Look at the Cardinals - have good hitters who get on base & score runs.

[wekse]

i miss da merck.

[Bergy92]

you know what's interesting to me - is that this year's Cubs roster is completely different from any other team. We have always been the team that waited for the 3-run homer to help us win games. In games that we did not homer, we were horrible. But this year, we have a different approach.

 

But here is the kicker for me - can Baker manage a team like this? I do not remember, but has he ever managed a team based on speed and getting on base and not based on power? I know everyone's personal feelings toward Baker here on NSBB, franckly, I feel the same way. The question is not do we think he can do it, but will he? Will he do more hit/runs? Will he encourage aggressiveness and walks? You see, it is one thing to arrange a team around a certain characteristic, but another to actually use it. The verdict is certainly out....

 

As the the Pierre comments - look no further than to DLEE in '05 as to the need for a true leadoff guy. I would be willing to bet that Lee will have more RBI's this year than last and not because he up's his hitting. But simply because people will hopefully be on base for him.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

you know what's interesting to me - is that this year's Cubs roster is completely different from any other team. We have always been the team that waited for the 3-run homer to help us win games. In games that we did not homer, we were horrible. But this year, we have a different approach.

 

But here is the kicker for me - can Baker manage a team like this? I do not remember, but has he ever managed a team based on speed and getting on base and not based on power? I know everyone's personal feelings toward Baker here on NSBB, franckly, I feel the same way. The question is not do we think he can do it, but will he? Will he do more hit/runs? Will he encourage aggressiveness and walks? You see, it is one thing to arrange a team around a certain characteristic, but another to actually use it. The verdict is certainly out....

 

As the the Pierre comments - look no further than to DLEE in '05 as to the need for a true leadoff guy. I would be willing to bet that Lee will have more RBI's this year than last and not because he up's his hitting. But simply because people will hopefully be on base for him.

 

I don't think we'll have to worry about Dusty managing a team based on speed and getting on base unless he gets fired and goes somewhere else because this ain't one of those teams.

[Bergy92]

you know what's interesting to me - is that this year's Cubs roster is completely different from any other team. We have always been the team that waited for the 3-run homer to help us win games. In games that we did not homer, we were horrible. But this year, we have a different approach.

 

But here is the kicker for me - can Baker manage a team like this? I do not remember, but has he ever managed a team based on speed and getting on base and not based on power? I know everyone's personal feelings toward Baker here on NSBB, franckly, I feel the same way. The question is not do we think he can do it, but will he? Will he do more hit/runs? Will he encourage aggressiveness and walks? You see, it is one thing to arrange a team around a certain characteristic, but another to actually use it. The verdict is certainly out....

 

As the the Pierre comments - look no further than to DLEE in '05 as to the need for a true leadoff guy. I would be willing to bet that Lee will have more RBI's this year than last and not because he up's his hitting. But simply because people will hopefully be on base for him.

 

I don't think we'll have to worry about Dusty managing a team based on speed and getting on base unless he gets fired and goes somewhere else because this ain't one of those teams.

 

oh, come on - I suppose that we can argue about getting on base, I will give that to you (although, Pierre will be better than Patterson), but speed for certain than last year. Cedano is faster than Nomar. Murton is faster than Hollandsworth/Dubois. JJ is faster than Burnitz. And Pierre is even faster than Patterson.

 

So while we might argue over OBP, you cannot argue over speed. How do you use that speed the few times that we are on base.

[Mark Priors Calves]

you know what's interesting to me - is that this year's Cubs roster is completely different from any other team. We have always been the team that waited for the 3-run homer to help us win games. In games that we did not homer, we were horrible. But this year, we have a different approach.

 

But here is the kicker for me - can Baker manage a team like this? I do not remember, but has he ever managed a team based on speed and getting on base and not based on power? I know everyone's personal feelings toward Baker here on NSBB, franckly, I feel the same way. The question is not do we think he can do it, but will he? Will he do more hit/runs? Will he encourage aggressiveness and walks? You see, it is one thing to arrange a team around a certain characteristic, but another to actually use it. The verdict is certainly out....

 

As the the Pierre comments - look no further than to DLEE in '05 as to the need for a true leadoff guy. I would be willing to bet that Lee will have more RBI's this year than last and not because he up's his hitting. But simply because people will hopefully be on base for him.

 

Is this really a speed based team though? Outside of Pierre's plus speed, I don't see anybody will great speed. Hairston probably, but only in a limited role. Hopefully Cedeno and Jones can show some speed, but this team doesn't seem like one that is based upon speed or getting on base.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

oh, come on - I suppose that we can argue about getting on base, I will give that to you (although, Pierre will be better than Patterson), but speed for certain than last year. Cedano is faster than Nomar. Murton is faster than Hollandsworth/Dubois. JJ is faster than Burnitz. And Pierre is even faster than Patterson.

 

So while we might argue over OBP, you cannot argue over speed. How do you use that speed the few times that we are on base.

 

Until I see numbers, there is no way I believe Pierre is faster than Patterson. Cedeno may be marginally faster than Nomar -- he was no slouch with the wheels. Murton is also marginally faster than Holla. Jones may be faster than Burny, but he'll only get a chance to prove that on defense as he probably won't spend too much time on base.

[CubFanPhilly]

Why do we keep comparing out teams to the '03 team. They were dead lucky to get into the playoffs with 88 wins, and it won't happen this year. Even though the NL stinks, I'd be shocked if 88 wins get us a division again. Comparing this team to a slightly above average team shouldn't be a source of hope.

 

I agree 100%. The Cubs were very lucky in '03. Lucky to win 88 with that roster, lucky that there weren't many serious injuries, and even luckier that 88 wins won the division.

 

That's what's so disappointing about this team. With a $95 mil.+ payroll you'd expect your GM to put together a team that projects to 90-95 wins. I don't think this team does. And that's Hendry's failure. He's made some good moves, but he keeps acting like this team is just a little depth or a seventh starter away from being a contender. It isn't.

 

This team will have to either be extremely lucky and/or improved by trade to be a contender.

 

CFP

[CubFanPhilly]

you know what's interesting to me - is that this year's Cubs roster is completely different from any other team. We have always been the team that waited for the 3-run homer to help us win games. In games that we did not homer, we were horrible. But this year, we have a different approach.

 

But here is the kicker for me - can Baker manage a team like this?

 

That's a true statement. This team is different. Baker may even excel at managing a team like this. But another question is: do teams like this win?

 

There aren't many examples that did.

[Balsa]

The Twins? This will be the first time in years they aren't the favorite in their division.

[Bergy92]

you know what's interesting to me - is that this year's Cubs roster is completely different from any other team. We have always been the team that waited for the 3-run homer to help us win games. In games that we did not homer, we were horrible. But this year, we have a different approach.

 

But here is the kicker for me - can Baker manage a team like this?

 

That's a true statement. This team is different. Baker may even excel at managing a team like this. But another question is: do teams like this win?

 

There aren't many examples that did.

 

Marlins '03 - White Sox '05...just a couple that come to mind.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Marlins '03 - White Sox '05

 

2003 Marlins:

15th in MLB with 333 OBP. Pierre had 65 steals, but he was also caught 20 times. They had 150 SBs as a team.

 

2005 Sox:

They were 24th in baseball last year with a 322 OBP. Podsednik had 59 steals, caught 23 times. Aside from him, they really didn't have a whole lot of speed.

[Bergy92]

Marlins '03 - White Sox '05

 

2003 Marlins:

15th in MLB with 333 OBP. Pierre had 65 steals, but he was also caught 20 times. They had 150 SBs as a team.

 

2005 Sox:

They were 24th in baseball last year with a 322 OBP. Podsednik had 59 steals, caught 23 times. Aside from him, they really didn't have a whole lot of speed.

 

I really wish that I had time to get into this now (at work and going into a meeting) - thanks for the stats. I do not agree though that speed is only calculated in stolen bases. Not even sure is there is another category.

 

My entire point of saying what I said is that the Cubs in the past have relied on the home run. Now they are planning on relying on 'small ball' (for lack of a better term). And speed certainly does have influence in that - the manufacturing of runs. Something that the Cubs traditionally at least in the recent past have not been good at.

 

That being said, I hope they are going to try and manufacture runs, because if we go into games hoping to hit the 3-run homer to win, we are in BIG TROUBLE...you must agree with that... :?:

[Transmogrified Tiger]

That being said, I hope they are going to try and manufacture runs, because if we go into games hoping to hit the 3-run homer to win, we are in BIG TROUBLE...you must agree with that... :?:

 

What does that mean?

[Mark Priors Calves]

Marlins '03 - White Sox '05

 

2003 Marlins:

15th in MLB with 333 OBP. Pierre had 65 steals, but he was also caught 20 times. They had 150 SBs as a team.

 

2005 Sox:

They were 24th in baseball last year with a 322 OBP. Podsednik had 59 steals, caught 23 times. Aside from him, they really didn't have a whole lot of speed.

That being said, I hope they are going to try and manufacture runs, because if we go into games hoping to hit the 3-run homer to win, we are in BIG TROUBLE...you must agree with that... :?:

 

I'll be waiting for at least one 3 run home run every game. Pierre and Walker get on base and Lee rips a bomb. No need to run into outs ahead of Lee and Ramirez.

[CuseCubFan69]

Marlins '03 - White Sox '05

 

2003 Marlins:

15th in MLB with 333 OBP. Pierre had 65 steals, but he was also caught 20 times. They had 150 SBs as a team.

 

2005 Sox:

They were 24th in baseball last year with a 322 OBP. Podsednik had 59 steals, caught 23 times. Aside from him, they really didn't have a whole lot of speed.

That being said, I hope they are going to try and manufacture runs, because if we go into games hoping to hit the 3-run homer to win, we are in BIG TROUBLE...you must agree with that... :?:

 

I'll be waiting for at least one 3 run home run every game. Pierre and Walker get on base and Lee rips a bomb. No need to run into outs ahead of Lee and Ramirez.

 

What if Pierre is on 1st and Perez is up with 2 outs?

[Ding Dong Johnson]

What if Pierre is on 1st and Perez is up with 2 outs?

 

A) There was a double-switch

or...

B) Somebody (his initials are Dusty Baker) jacked up the lineup yet again

 

I'll go with B.