Want Tejada? Trade ARam

[Tim]

Also factor in that Aramis' numbers in 2003-2005 are all better than Tejada's and Tejada's played more games on average. Thus, his durability doesn't mean increased production. Rather, it's a sign that when Aramis gets his legs into better shape, he's going to completely blow Miggy out of the water, so to speak.

If they played the same position on the field, I'd agree. To get production like his out of SS allows a lot of flexibility elsewhere on the field. Putting things differently, Tejada is going to be a sure-fire HOF player at his current pace as a SS. ARam is not nearly as clear-cut at 3B.

 

There's also the defensive difference in value to consider. If ARam was even as good a third baseman as Miggy is at SS, I'd be more inclined to ignore things. But you're comparing an above average SS to a below average 3B on that side of the ball. That makes up an awful lot of the offensive gap.

 

But I'll say that I'd be thrilled to have both!

[JC]

Has anyone suggested trading ARam for Tejada, then signing Nomar for 3B?

 

Just food for thought.

[USSoccer]

Also factor in that Aramis' numbers in 2003-2005 are all better than Tejada's and Tejada's played more games on average. Thus, his durability doesn't mean increased production. Rather, it's a sign that when Aramis gets his legs into better shape, he's going to completely blow Miggy out of the water, so to speak.

If they played the same position on the field, I'd agree. To get production like his out of SS allows a lot of flexibility elsewhere on the field. Putting things differently, Tejada is going to be a sure-fire HOF player at his current pace as a SS. ARam is not nearly as clear-cut at 3B.

 

There's also the defensive difference in value to consider. If ARam was even as good a third baseman as Miggy is at SS, I'd be more inclined to ignore things. But you're comparing an above average SS to a below average 3B on that side of the ball. That makes up an awful lot of the offensive gap.

 

But I'll say that I'd be thrilled to have both!

 

I definetly want both, don't get me wrong!

 

I'm just miffed at the slight undervaluing of Ramirez. His defense took a step back in 2005, but it improved in 2004. Having more flexibility in his lower body might signifigantly help his defense. Also factor in that we don't have any good in house options for 3B, and there aren't really any good options out there to trade for that would be better than Aramis, or even comparable.

 

Now contrast that with the fact that we have one potential in house alternative for SS in Cedeno, and a couple potentially on the market in Cabrera and Lugo. If we can't get both Miggy and Aramis, I'd rather pass on Tejada and keep the younger, cheaper, more productive Ramirez and fill in the SS position and focus more on RF.

 

But again, I want both!

[Tim]

wow. i don't think i'd trade Ramirez straight across for Tejada.

 

Neither would I. Aramis is better than Miggy.

Is he better when you factor durability into the equation?

 

Tim, this past September was the longest extended period of time missed for Aramis since 2002. He's got to cure the nagging hammy issue, but it's not like he's the second coming of Alou, or Nomar even. His durability is not that big of a concern.

Yeah, but we're comparing him to baseball's current iron man. It is a factor.

 

My only real complaint with Tejada is that he walked less in three of the past five years than Corey did in 2004.

 

Aramis 2004: .318 .373 .578 .951 . Games played that season: 145

Tejada 2004: .311 .360 .534 .894 . Games played that season: 162

 

Aramis 2005: .302 .358 .568 .926 . Games played that season: 123

Tejada 2005: .304 .349 .515 .864 . Games played that season: 162.

 

His iron man status doesn't reflect in their production when compared side by side. If anything, it shows that the Cubs were correct in sending a trainer down to the DR to work with Aramis. If he were able to play 155 games, his numbers would be Manny-esque.

WARP3 from BP:

         2002  2003  2004  2005  2006
Aramis    0.8   2.6   1.6   5.8   4.6
Tejada    6.3   8.4   6.0  11.8   9.5

[USSoccer]

Has anyone suggested trading ARam for Tejada, then signing Nomar for 3B?

 

Just food for thought.

 

We non tendered Nomar. We'd have to wait til May 1st for him. Also, if people think Aramis is injury prone, what about Nomar over the past 3 seasons indicates that he's not?

 

 

BTW, Enjoy the IU game today? :D

[Tim]

Also factor in that Aramis' numbers in 2003-2005 are all better than Tejada's and Tejada's played more games on average. Thus, his durability doesn't mean increased production. Rather, it's a sign that when Aramis gets his legs into better shape, he's going to completely blow Miggy out of the water, so to speak.

If they played the same position on the field, I'd agree. To get production like his out of SS allows a lot of flexibility elsewhere on the field. Putting things differently, Tejada is going to be a sure-fire HOF player at his current pace as a SS. ARam is not nearly as clear-cut at 3B.

 

There's also the defensive difference in value to consider. If ARam was even as good a third baseman as Miggy is at SS, I'd be more inclined to ignore things. But you're comparing an above average SS to a below average 3B on that side of the ball. That makes up an awful lot of the offensive gap.

 

But I'll say that I'd be thrilled to have both!

 

I definetly want both, don't get me wrong!

 

I'm just miffed at the slight undervaluing of Ramirez. His defense took a step back in 2005, but it improved in 2004. Having more flexibility in his lower body might signifigantly help his defense. Also factor in that we don't have any good in house options for 3B, and there aren't really any good options out there to trade for that would be better than Aramis, or even comparable.

 

Now contrast that with the fact that we have one potential in house alternative for SS in Cedeno, and a couple potentially on the market in Cabrera and Lugo. If we can't get both Miggy and Aramis, I'd rather pass on Tejada and keep the younger, cheaper, more productive Ramirez and fill in the SS position and focus more on RF.

 

But again, I want both!

I wouldn't trade ARam for Tejada unless we were to somehow get Mora in addition. 3B is generally an easier hole to fill, but it isn't for the Cubs at the current time.

[Tim]

Has anyone suggested trading ARam for Tejada, then signing Nomar for 3B?

 

Just food for thought.

That boat has sailed already, my friend. We didn't offer arby.

[USSoccer]

WARP3 from BP:

         2002  2003  2004  2005  2006
Aramis    0.8   2.6   1.6   5.8   4.6
Tejada    6.3   8.4   6.0  11.8   9.5

 

Forgive my ignorance, but what's WARP3?

[Tim]

WARP3 from BP:

         2002  2003  2004  2005  2006
Aramis    0.8   2.6   1.6   5.8   4.6
Tejada    6.3   8.4   6.0  11.8   9.5

 

Forgive my ignorance, but what's WARP3?

Wins above replacement player. It is a cumulative stat, so Tejada's games played advantage shows up. It also incorporates defensive value, so it highlights Tejada's edge there, too.

[USSoccer]

WARP3 from BP:

         2002  2003  2004  2005  2006
Aramis    0.8   2.6   1.6   5.8   4.6
Tejada    6.3   8.4   6.0  11.8   9.5

 

Forgive my ignorance, but what's WARP3?

Wins above replacement player. It is a cumulative stat, so Tejada's games played advantage shows up. It also incorporates defensive value, so it highlights Tejada's edge there, too.

 

Doesn't that reflect the SS position and it's defensive importance over what's more of an offensive position at 3B? I mean, isn't that an apples and oranges comparison?

[jjgman21]

Also factor in that Aramis' numbers in 2003-2005 are all better than Tejada's and Tejada's played more games on average. Thus, his durability doesn't mean increased production. Rather, it's a sign that when Aramis gets his legs into better shape, he's going to completely blow Miggy out of the water, so to speak.

If they played the same position on the field, I'd agree. To get production like his out of SS allows a lot of flexibility elsewhere on the field. Putting things differently, Tejada is going to be a sure-fire HOF player at his current pace as a SS. ARam is not nearly as clear-cut at 3B.

 

 

actaully, if not for that stupid injury during a brawl and his subsequent long recovery, Aram may very well be on a clear cut HOF pace. if he had his average numbers from 2001, 2003-2005 in 2002, he'd have five straight years of 60+ extra base hits, and 5 years of 92+ RBI (well over 500 total), all before the year he turned 28. those are hall of fame numbers for a third baseman. very comparable to Mike Schmidt, without the defensive range and arm of course.

[JC]

Has anyone suggested trading ARam for Tejada, then signing Nomar for 3B?

 

Just food for thought.

That boat has sailed already, my friend. We didn't offer arby.

 

Stupid out-of-port boats!

 

For the record, I thought it was a poor move not offering arby regardless of any of this Tejada nonsense.

[Tim]

WARP3 from BP:

         2002  2003  2004  2005  2006
Aramis    0.8   2.6   1.6   5.8   4.6
Tejada    6.3   8.4   6.0  11.8   9.5

 

Forgive my ignorance, but what's WARP3?

Wins above replacement player. It is a cumulative stat, so Tejada's games played advantage shows up. It also incorporates defensive value, so it highlights Tejada's edge there, too.

 

Doesn't that reflect the SS position and it's defensive importance over what's more of an offensive position at 3B? I mean, isn't that an apples and oranges comparison?

That depends on the argument you're having. I'm saying that Tejada is a more valuable player than Ramirez when all things are considered. Which makes that particular stat extremely relevant.

[JC]

 

 

BTW, Enjoy the IU game today? :D

 

:offtopic:

Not really. Davis apologists will put far too much weight in a victory over an undermanned UK team simply because he hasn't beaten them in 6 years. UK stunk today.

[Tim]

Has anyone suggested trading ARam for Tejada, then signing Nomar for 3B?

 

Just food for thought.

That boat has sailed already, my friend. We didn't offer arby.

 

Stupid out-of-port boats!

 

For the record, I thought it was a poor move not offering arby regardless of any of this Tejada nonsense.

Yeah, I'm on record as having recommended it.

[USSoccer]

WARP3 from BP:

         2002  2003  2004  2005  2006
Aramis    0.8   2.6   1.6   5.8   4.6
Tejada    6.3   8.4   6.0  11.8   9.5

 

Forgive my ignorance, but what's WARP3?

Wins above replacement player. It is a cumulative stat, so Tejada's games played advantage shows up. It also incorporates defensive value, so it highlights Tejada's edge there, too.

 

Doesn't that reflect the SS position and it's defensive importance over what's more of an offensive position at 3B? I mean, isn't that an apples and oranges comparison?

That depends on the argument you're having. I'm saying that Tejada is a more valuable player than Ramirez when all things are considered. Which makes that particular stat extremely relevant.

 

But in the context of a team, and not individual value, isn't Ramirez plus Lugo, for instance, more valuable than Tejada and Mora or Perez?

[USSoccer]

 

 

BTW, Enjoy the IU game today? :D

 

:offtopic:

Not really. Davis apologists will put far too much weight in a victory over an undermanned UK team simply because he hasn't beaten them in 6 years. UK stunk today.

 

You are not a Mike Davis fan, I take it?

[JC]

 

 

BTW, Enjoy the IU game today? :D

 

:offtopic:

Not really. Davis apologists will put far too much weight in a victory over an undermanned UK team simply because he hasn't beaten them in 6 years. UK stunk today.

 

You are not a Mike Davis fan, I take it?

 

Having personally met him twice, I can attest that he is a sincerely nice guy. But, he isn't a good coach. TFor the most part, the players that play the best for him were developed under different coaches. Strickland has blossomed in the 2 spot, yet Davis didn't identify that until Wright left. (Unfortunately, Strickland also continues to lose the ball about 50% of the time he handles it.)

 

But, I digress.

[jjgman21]

I wouldn't trade ARam for Tejada unless we were to somehow get Mora in addition. 3B is generally an easier hole to fill, but it isn't for the Cubs at the current time.

 

lot of pining for Mora these days. anyone else think this guy may take a bit of a dive?

 

he struggled to get to the majors, was mediocre for his first few years, had two fantastic years, then took a quick 160 point dive in OPS over one year, and was injured all along the way.

 

I like him, but the guy doesn't exactly have a long track record upon which to base future success and will be 34 next year. I get a feeling his days in the sun may be over sooner than later.

[biittner77]

Cubs get:

 

Tejada

Mora

Gibbons

 

Orioles get:

Ramirez

Cedeno

Patterson

Novoa

Rusch

Ryu

 

Or replace Cedeno with another pitcher and the O's sign Nomar to play SS.

[radarluv1]

dont think we can trade rusch yet, though. i would rather just to a simple cedeno plus arms for tejada, if possible.

[Tim]

WARP3 from BP:

         2002  2003  2004  2005  2006
Aramis    0.8   2.6   1.6   5.8   4.6
Tejada    6.3   8.4   6.0  11.8   9.5

 

Forgive my ignorance, but what's WARP3?

Wins above replacement player. It is a cumulative stat, so Tejada's games played advantage shows up. It also incorporates defensive value, so it highlights Tejada's edge there, too.

 

Doesn't that reflect the SS position and it's defensive importance over what's more of an offensive position at 3B? I mean, isn't that an apples and oranges comparison?

That depends on the argument you're having. I'm saying that Tejada is a more valuable player than Ramirez when all things are considered. Which makes that particular stat extremely relevant.

 

But in the context of a team, and not individual value, isn't Ramirez plus Lugo, for instance, more valuable than Tejada and Mora or Perez?

I'd take Tejada and Mora over the other pair.

 

Looking purely at offensive value (VORP instead of WARP), here's the results:

 

          2003       2004          2005
T+M    58.1+41.8   73.0+73.6     70.0+41.1
A+L    37.4+27.4   59.6+33.4     48.8+49.9

[back2backjax]

Trade Aram, Williams, Kornoka, Brownlie/Welly, Sing/Dopriak to the O's for Tejada

 

Trade CPatt, Wood, Walker, Brownlie/Welly to Rangers for Blalock and Nix

 

Blalock at 3rd, Cedeno at 2nd, Tejada at SS, Nix in RF..Cubs save $6 million+

 

is this an oriole fan having a wet dream disguised as a cub fan?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Using VORP Rate(I don't like VORP very much anyways), in 2005:

 

Tejada: .419

Mora: .260

 

Total: .679

 

Ramirez: .407

Lugo: .303

 

Total: .710

[Tim]

Using VORP Rate(I don't like VORP very much anyways), in 2005:

 

Tejada: .419

Mora: .260

 

Total: .679

 

Ramirez: .407

Lugo: .303

 

Total: .710

Part of the argument here is durability, though, so I don't like using rate stats when that's the case.