Heyman Has Cubs As One Of Four Landing Spots For Jordan Montgomery, Note On Bellinger

I've barely been reading the Cubs discussion on this forum lately.  Not because I'm mad about the offseason but because the offseason has made me apathetic about the team.  Signing Jordan Montgomery and Bellinger would certainly make me more excited about the season.

Getting both of them would likely make the Cubs division favorites. 

However, it would also take them over the CBT line, so I doubt it happens. 

4 minutes ago, Rex Buckingham said:

Getting both of them would likely make the Cubs division favorites. 

However, it would also take them over the CBT line, so I doubt it happens. 

Agreed. This isn’t happening. I am not so sure they get either. But if they do, I think it would be Bellinger. 

Before this weekend when PTR more or less squashed any hopes of crossing the LT, I was of the mind that Montgomery or Snell actually helps the 2024 team more.  My thought was the incremental improvement over Wicks is similar to Bellinger's incremental improvement over PCA/Tauchman, but I think the roster can accommodate a ~1.5 WAR veteran DH (e.g. Belt) better than a ~1.5 WAR veteran SP (e.g. Lorenzen)

However, implicit in that is an ability to cross the LT.  If that's off the table and Jed's only got one move to make, I don't think I'm as keen on the SPs as I was before.  I think also Montgomery is the least likely of the 4 to take a short term offer and get back on the market next winter.  He didn't get QO'd, which is one of the tangible benefits any of the other three would get by trying again next winter.

43 minutes ago, Rex Buckingham said:

Getting both of them would likely make the Cubs division favorites. 

However, it would also take them over the CBT line, so I doubt it happens. 

I mean, getting two of the Boras four should be the goal at this point. It's kind of maddening that it is not.

1 minute ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I mean, getting two of the Boras four should be the goal at this point. It's kind of maddening that it is not.

The goal is to be under the LT line. They can’t get two. They can’t even do Bellinger/pen arm or Montgomery/Belt. They have one more signing at around $25M annual and that is all TR will allow. 

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

The goal is to be under the LT line. They can’t get two. They can’t even do Bellinger/pen arm or Montgomery/Belt. They have one more signing at around $25M annual and that is all TR will allow. 

Oh, I know, I just think it's horsefeathers. The Cubs should not be afraid of literally the first luxury tax threshold.

9 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Oh, I know, I just think it's horsefeathers. The Cubs should not be afraid of literally the first luxury tax threshold.

I want all four. Or none. 

9 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Oh, I know, I just think it's horsefeathers. The Cubs should not be afraid of literally the first luxury tax threshold.

Keep in mind, Dom Smith will count 3.5m once activated when deemed having a healthy hamate. Thus lowering $ available for Belli.  Just curious too, who will be a casualty from the 40 man? 

I think reasons 1, 2, and 3, for any Montgomery interest are mostly contingency for Bellinger falling through.  They've positioned the roster such that they can get similar benefit from any of the Boras 4(as Bertz alludes to), so the FO has their preferences but know that coming down with one of them at their number is ultimately fine.

However, I do think people have been a little quick to label the LT as a hard cap based on Ricketts comments.  He's gone over it before, and while I was always skeptical of the early offseason possibility of going 20-40M over, I have no reason to think he wouldn't do it again in the right circumstance, and that circumstance is the most important part.  In a world where the actual Cubs offer to Bellinger is like 6/135 or something, and where Montgomery is struggling to get an offer of even 3 years at his preferred number for whatever reason, a 1 year or 1 + player option that assumes health deal could very well be that circumstance and net them both while staying under the first LT penalty band.  I put the odds of that at like 5% at best, but if you want optimism that's the path I could see.

17 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Keep in mind, Dom Smith will count 3.5m once activated when deemed having a healthy hamate. Thus lowering $ available for Belli.  Just curious too, who will be a casualty from the 40 man? 

There is absolutely no guarantee he makes it nearly this far in the process

Also Smith is only guaranteed 1.75m on a major league deal, the 3.5 represents a maximum with incentives. And that 1.75 would be pro-rated if he isn't called up right away, so he's a rounding error for luxury tax purposes even in the darkest fears people have about his playing time.

3 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

There is absolutely no guarantee he makes it nearly this far in the process

I do think one of Smith, Peralta, Mervis or Canario is the last bat on this team. Might come down to what they pay Bellinger, if they sign him. I am sure they won’t go over to pay Smith or Peralta. Of all the dumb moves they have made the last couple of years, that would be the dumbest. 

42 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Oh, I know, I just think it's horsefeathers. The Cubs should not be afraid of literally the first luxury tax threshold.

They aren’t afraid, Tommy Boy is not going to go over an imaginary line he pushed to create. I know they did it before. The past is the past. 

39 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

There is absolutely no guarantee he makes it nearly this far in the process

The threat is there. But it is reduced because we have counsell rather than the veteran biased rossy

55 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

  They've positioned the roster such that they can get similar benefit from any of the Boras 4(as Bertz alludes to), so the FO has their preferences but know that coming down with one of them at their number is ultimately fine.

This is the key point in all of this for me. I'm sure they have preferences, and have assigned some sort of ideal contract parameters for each of them. But if and until the market for one of them collapses, conventional wisdom says they're only getting one of them, and if we're truly splitting hairs in terms of value added to the team, might as well 'settle' for the one with the easiest contract to swallow. 

Man it would be something if we came away with Belli and Montgomery here.  We should and there is no reason we can't.  

34 minutes ago, Michael Busch Light said:

Man it would be something if we came away with Belli and Montgomery here.  We should and there is no reason we can't.  

I have very little to no expectations, but these two would make them that clear cut division favorite that they should have been.

3 hours ago, LBiittner said:

The threat is there. But it is reduced because we have counsell rather than the veteran biased rossy

It's not a threat. If he makes it that far, things are either going so well for him that we won't mind paying that money. Or things are going so poorly for the Cubs that it won't matter.

6 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I do think one of Smith, Peralta, Mervis or Canario is the last bat on this team. Might come down to what they pay Bellinger, if they sign him. I am sure they won’t go over to pay Smith or Peralta. Of all the dumb moves they have made the last couple of years, that would be the dumbest. 

If we sign Bellinger and everyone is healthy and doing ok in ST for bench i'd go Amaya, Tauchman, Wisdom, Madrigal, Mervis.

Busch at 1B and Mervis is DH vs RHP, Wisdom/Morel at 1B/DH vs LHP and Madrigal plays 3B.  Gomes might fit in the mix at DH vs LHP as well.

If Bellinger isn't signed and no more offensive moves made then the bench i'd go: Amaya, Wisdom, Madrigal, Canario, Mervis.  Platoon Tauchman/Canario in CF, Morel also an option in CF vs LHP.

Wasn't Montgomery going to cost a draft pick if they signed him? I find it extremely unlikely that Cubs brass sat there this long this offseason, then proceeds to sign two of Boras' clients. 

4 minutes ago, BigbadB said:

Wasn't Montgomery going to cost a draft pick if they signed him? I find it extremely unlikely that Cubs brass sat there this long this offseason, then proceeds to sign two of Boras' clients. 

No, he was traded mid-season, so he wasn't elibible for the QO.