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  • Chicago Cubs Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

    The latest Chicago Cubs free agent and trade rumors, along with notes and tidbits about the team.
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    Bertz
    Echoing national reports, the local writers for The Athletic this morning indicated that the Cubs would be doing their offseason shopping in the "upper-middle" tier of the free agent market, trusting their pitching development to get the most out of their acquisition.
    Sharma and Mooney also indicated that the Qualifying Offer is a major factor of consideration in their targets, seemingly ruling out upper middle options like Nick Pivetta and Sean Manaea.
    Nate Eovaldi and Walker Buehler both get name checked as players who would fit the team's parameters, though it may also be that the Cubs instead turn to the trade market to do their shopping.
    Brock Beauchamp
    This is disappointing news but hardly surprising to Cubs fans.
    Bob Nightengale of USA Today mentioned that Jed Hoyer and the Cubs are "probably out" on the top end of the free agent market this season. That means no to Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, or Blake Snell donning Cubs blue in 2025.
    Coupled with rumors of the Cubs slightly scaling back payroll and Cubs fans could be in for a long, dark winter after yet another mediocre 83-79 finish to the 2024 season.
     
    Transmogrified Tiger
    In a recent piece by The Athletic, rival front offices are suggesting that Jed Hoyer is interested in trading Cody Bellinger.
    This isn't startling news but it's still noteworthy. When Bellinger opted into the second year of his contract, speculation began about the future of the centerfielder and first baseman.
    The Cubs have both center field and first base covered in Pete Crow-Armstrong and Michael Busch, respectively.
    The source here seems to be *other* front offices so worth taking with a grain of salt, but Rosenthal's words carry weight so worth taking into consideration.
    Bertz
    The Cubs on Wednesday added reliever Eli Morgan from the Guardians and catcher Matt Thaiss from the Angels.  According to The Athletic the Cubs are still looking to further bolster both areas of the roster.
    Morgan not being the only planned reliever add this offseason is not surprising considering how often Jed Hoyer has used the word "depth" when discussing the bullpen.  Matt Thaiss at catcher was a little more ambiguous, though the team is thin at catcher in AAA as well so it's a position that could use some depth as well.
    Given that the Cubs have not yet spent significant money this winter, paired with neither position moving much yet in free agency (with the notable exception of Travis d'Arnaud), any player the team was eying before Wednesday's moves is likely still on the table.
    Matthew Lenz
    In his latest offseason update, Jeff Passan of ESPN identified Yusei Kikuchi and Nick Pivetta as two "upper-middle-tier starters" that the Cubs could pursue to solidify their starting rotation.
    Kikuchi is 33 years old and coming off a very productive second half of 2024 with the Houston Astros. After 106 so-so innings with the Toronto Blue Jays, he was moved at the trade deadline to help the 'Stros make their postseason push. He rewarded them with a 3.49 ERA / 3.11 FIP and a 24.8% K-BB rate. MLBTR ranks Kikuchi as their 12th best free agent and predicts him to get $60 million over three years in free agency.
    Pivetta is expected to decline the Qualifying Offer he received from the Boston Red Sox as Passan states that he will get a multiple year deal in the free agent market. Pivetta has been a very solid and reliable starter of his eight year career and , in 2024 he improved upon careers marks with a 4.07 FIP and a 22.9% K-BB rate. Arguably his biggest red flag is his penchant to give up home runs as an extreme fly ball pitcher, but that would be less of a concern at the spacious confines of Wrigley Field.
    Which of these two starters would you prefer the Cubs pursue?
     
    Brock Beauchamp
    Roki Sasaki has nudged Juan Soto out of the limelight, at least for a day. The young Japanese phenom announced he will come to Major League Baseball in 2025.
    Sasaki, unlike last year's import Yoshinobu Yamamoto, will post under the minor league rules due to his age and experience in NPB. Remember when Shohei Ohtani came to America to play and all teams were in on him? Same thing here. There will be no $300 million contracts in play as with Yamamoto, meaning most teams should be courting the young right-hander this offseason.
    Sasaki has been simply phenomenal in Japan. He pitched all of the 2024 season as a 22-year-old and only turned 23 this week. In parts of three seasons in NPB, he has a 2.10 ERA and 505 strikeouts in only 394 innings pitched.
    Brock Beauchamp
    MLB Trade Rumors released their top 35 trade candidates for the 2024-2025 offseason. The only Cub to make the list was centerfielder Cody Bellinger, who may decide to opt out of his contract in a few days.
    At this point, Bellinger isn't a great fit for the Cubs. He's due to make $27.5 million in 2025 and has another opt-out clause following that season. The Cubs have Pete Crow-Armstrong roaming center and Michael Busch somewhat locked in at first base, making Bellinger a luxury on a team that doesn't seem eager to spend big in free agency this winter.
    Should Bellinger opt out, the Cubs will likely find suitors for his services. The center field free agent crop is thin this season and Bellinger would immediately become one of the best options available on the market. 
    Matthew Lenz
    The Rangers are reportedly looking to get under the $241MM luxury tax threshold, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. 
    MLBTR goes on to suggest that arbitration eligible players such as RHP Dane Dunning, OF Leody Taveras, and 1B Nathaniel Lowe as possible non-tender candidates. This was not suggested, but one route is to tender these players and then try to trade them to recoup some value. As the Minnesota Twins learned last season with Kyle Farmer, that can be a risky route to take. Other big contracts include Jacob DeGrom and Jon Gray although, considering they already have a need for starting pitching, they may not be overly willing to move those players.
    Looking at the arbitration players, the Cubs could use any of the three players listed for some added flexibility and depth on their active roster or in their pitching staff. Nathaniel Lowe and Leody Taveras grade out as slightly above average defenders with decent bats, while Dane Dunning has experience as a starter and reliever with moderate success in both roles.
    Given Ray Davis' "number 1 priority" to get under the luxury tax threshold, any of these players could likely be had for a fairly cheap price in addition to their team friendly standing as arbitration eligible players.
    Adolis Garcia is another name they could pursue as a buy-low candidate, although the Texas Rangers may be more inclined to keep outfielder who made headlines during their 2023 World Series run.
    Should the Cubs pursue any of the Texas Rangers?
    Brock Beauchamp
    Patrick Mooney of The Athletic wrote a really nice piece about the Cubs' offseason pursuit of rotation arms. In it, he points out that historically, Jed Hoyer & Co. have avoided "bounceback" pitchers such as Luis Severino and Jack Flaherty. If they avoided that  kind of pitcher on a lesser prove-it deal, it makes even less sense for this front office to pursue those same pitchers on a multi-year contract.
    Whereas the Cubs have shown interest, and ultimately signed, pitchers they believe can be workhorses with steady-but-maybe-not-great upside in Jameson Taillon and Shota Imanaga. In the case of Imanaga, the workhorse portion of that statement was certainly true but the performance level was beyond anyone's reasonable expectations.
    A pitcher that fits that mold this offseason is Max Fried. While the 30-year-old's ERA slipped a little in 2024 (128 ERA+), he has started over 25 games in three of the past four seasons.
    Give the article a read, it's a great early-offseason primer on how the Cubs might look at the rotation this winter.
    Brock Beauchamp
    At the last trade deadline, Jed Hoyer was in talks with the Los Angeles Angels about acquiring 24-year-old catcher Logan O'Hoppe. Ultimately, the deal fell through as the Angels stumbled their way to a 99-loss season.
    Miguel Amaya, on the other hand, thrived during the second half of the season, posting a .761 OPS in 50 games played. Still, according to sources from The Athletic's Patrick Mooney, the Cubs will pursue catching help this winter and Logan O'Hoppe is a likely target.
    O'Hoppe posted a 100 OPS+ in 2024 and has a bright future ahead of him; he will not become a free agent until after the 2028 season. The biggest hurdle in any trade is likely Angels owner Arte Moreno; a known meddler in baseball affairs, he often refuses to rebuild when necessary and dislikes trading away young players.
    Brock Beauchamp
    Jeff Passan of ESPN reported today that 34-year-old Japanese right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano will enter MLB free agency this offseason. 
    Sugano will turn 35 in a week and it's hard to predict what kind of results he can expect against MLB hitters. Once a relatively hard-thrower, the righty now sits around 92 mph and controls six pitches. He's the epitome of a crafty veteran, striking out only six batters per nine innings in NPB.
    Unlike most other Japanese baseball imports, Sugano is an unrestricted free agent. There will be no posting period and all teams can vie for his services as if he was a typical MLB free agent.
    Matthew Lenz
    Recently, Patrick Mooney of The Athletic ($) reported "the Cubs are planning to add an established starting pitcher to a group that includes Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon and Javier Assad."
    The 2024 version of the starting rotation was a solid, yet unspectacular group that finished in the middle of MLB in multiple metrics, including K-BB%, FIP, xFIP, and SIERA among others.
    While they do have young arms who will compete for a role in 2025, it's hard to settle with Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, Hayden Wesneski, and or Cade Horton when the upcoming free agent class features names like Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Jack Flaherty and possibly Blake Snell, if he opts out of his deal with the San Francisco Giants. Even if they don't land one of the big names, one of Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, Nick Pivetta, Max Scherzer, and or Justin Verlander could provide more production and reliability than one of their younger arms.
    Darragh McDonald of MLBTR goes on to suggest a few trade partners for our Cubbies, stating "the trade market will be another option for the Cubs. The White Sox didn’t end up flipping Garrett Crochet at the deadline but could perhaps make him available again in the winter. The Marlins lost almost all their rotation options to injury this year but it’s possible to see them considering deals as the group gets healthier for 2025. Somewhat similarly, the Rays seem to have an abundance of rotation options with Jeffrey Springs, Shane Baz and Drew Rasmussenreturned from longs absences, with Shane McClanahan to join them next year. Other possibilities will surely emerge as the winter goes on."
    If these reports are true and the Cubs are in fact going to add a starter, who would you like for them to target?
    Brock Beauchamp
    The wheels on the bus go 'round and 'round...
    Contrary to earlier reports from USA Today's Bob Nightengale, Patrick Mooney of The Athletic is saying sources close to Cody Bellinger suggest he is undecided whether to opt in to another year with the Cubs in 2025.
    This isn't surprising, as most opt-out clauses are an easy decision; either the player is clearly worth more than the contract or they're underperforming/injured and have no chance at matching the contract in place. Bellinger is straddling that line with a season (2.2 fWAR with eight games remaining) that makes it hard to judge whether a long-term contract will approach the $27.5 million is he owed by the Cubs in 2025.
    Bellinger has remained relatively healthy in 2024, playing 124 games as of this writing. The 29-year-old will have a difficult decision in the coming weeks, though thankfully unlike last offseason, he will have to make his decision to stay or leave just five days after the completion of the World Series.
    Brock Beauchamp
    Bob Nightengale (yes, I know) of The USA Today recently wrote that Cody Bellinger "Is Fully Expected" to remain with the Chicago Cubs in 2025.
    Bellinger, one of the infamous "Boras Four" last offseason, found the free agent market not to his liking and signed a three-year, $80 million contract late in the offseason. The contract includes opt-outs after each season. Bellinger, while still a very productive player somehow still under the age of 30, has seen his performance dip this season. After a wildly successful 2023 campaign that saw his OPS+ skyrocket back up to 138, it has drifted back down to 115 this season.
    The question for Bellinger is whether he wants to maximize overall dollars in a single contract or remain with the Cubs at a higher yearly rate. He is owed $27.5 million in 2025 and $25 million in 2026. It's unlikely any long-term contract he signs this offseason will approach those numbers on an AAV basis.
    Brock Beauchamp
    As we near the MLB Trade Deadline at the end of the month, rumors are starting to become more substantial and significant trades are now happening (AJ Puk and Randy Arozarena moved in two separate deals last night).
    When it comes to the Chicago Cubs, it seems like most of the rumors are swirling around starting pitcher Jameson Taillon. His contract, while not inexpensive, it reasonable and goes through the 2026 season at $18 million per season.
    The Astros' pitching staff has been devastated by injury and after an awful start to the season, they now find themselves in first place after passing the faltering Mariners in the AL West (a Mariners team that was on the receiving end of the Arozarena deal).
    At this point, it feels almost inevitable that Taillon will be traded given the amount of interest in him.
    Brock Beauchamp
    In the latest roundup over at The Athletic, a significant chunk of the trade deadline news was Cubs-centered. Here are some notes on the current state of the team and their thinking:
    They've resigned themselves to the expectation they will not buy at the trade deadline. Given the complicated contractual situation of players like Cody Bellinger, they're also unsure how many players will be appealing trade candidates to contenders. While they haven't completely ruled out trading top-tier players like Justin Steele and Nico Hoerner - who would bring an absolute haul in trade - they're not willing to punt on the 2025 season, either. Perhaps most interesting is that they do not appear to care whether they drop back under the first luxury tax threshold. If they make trades to bolster the farm, they're not particularly interested in bringing back lower-level prospects just to save some money.
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