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  • Chicago Cubs Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

    The latest Chicago Cubs free agent and trade rumors, along with notes and tidbits about the team.
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    Bertz
    The Cubs' search for starting pitching was seemingly put on pause while the team finalized their deal for Jesus Luzardo, but it appears to have resumed in earnest.
    Jesus Luzardo had a lost season in 2024 with separate elbow and back injuries, not pitching at all after June 16th. However, in 2023, Jesus was one of the best pitchers in baseball and seemed to be a young budding ace.
    With that immense talent and two years of control at low arbitration salaries, Luzardo still figures to command a sizable prospect return even after his down year in 2024.
    Brock Beauchamp
    The Cubs pulled off their big improvement to the lineup via the Kyle Tucker trade with the Houston Astros.
    Now it's time to turn their attention to the pitching staff, the rotation in particular.
    Ryan Divish and Adam Jude of The Seattle Times wrote a round-up of Castillo rumors, mentioning that the Cubs have shown interest. In return, the Mariners have been interested in second baseman Nico Hoerner, so much so that the Cubs and Mariners were nearing a three-team deal with Hoerner going to Seattle while the Cubs acquired Garrett Crochet from the White Sox.
    The Mariners have quietly spread rumors that 32-year-old Luis Castillo might be available in trade. He could likely be had for a reasonable prospect return due to the fact he is owed roughly $24 million per season through 2027 with a $25 million vesting option in 2028 but had roughly league-average performance in 2024.
    Any acquiring team would be betting on Castillo returning to previous form, where he was a well above-average starting pitcher most teams would be thrilled to have in a playoff rotation.
    Bertz
    The Cubs continue to cast a wide net on late inning relievers.  Hardly a surprise after how many issues the team's bullpen had in 2024.  Two separate names were mentioned Monday afternoon from the winter meetings
    In between injuries, AJ Minter has been one of the best lefty handed relievers in the league the last 5 years, sporting a 2.85 ERA over 243 innings.  A hip injury which required surgery ended Minter's season in August.
    Kyle Finnegan was the Nationals' closer for much of the year, though he was non tendered last month as his arbitration salary exceeded what the Nationals were comfortable paying him.
    Both names are in line with Kirby Yates and Andrew Chafin, who the team was tied to last week by Bruce Levine.  Not exactly playing against type, Jed Hoyer seems to be zeroing in on relievers who have late inning stuff and experience but aren't quite in line for multi-year deals.
    Brock Beauchamp
    Alex Speier of The Boston Globe mentioned in a recent write-up that the Seattle Mariners are listening when opposing GMs come calling for Luis Castillo.
    Castillo turns 32 in a few days. A reliable frontline starter for several years, the righty's ERA took a step backward in 2024 but most of his peripherals suggest the situation is far from dire. He lost roughly half a mile per hour on his pitches but metrics such as Stuff+ and Statcast are conflicted on whether the quality of his pitches changed significantly enough to warrant his ERA dropping to roughly league-average.
    Castillo is signed for a little over $24 million per season through 2027 and has a vesting option for 2028 at $25 million.
    The Mariners have one of the best rotations in baseball but spend every season trying to scrape together enough runs to reach meaningful October baseball. There is a good chance they end up dealing some of that pitching for long-term lineup help.
    Bertz
    Here on the first day of the winter meetings, he Athletic provided an article touching on a number of Cubs subjects.  Among them Sahadev Sharma provided an update on the Cubs plans at catcher:
    Carson Kelly was written up last week as a Cubs target by Bruce Levine.  Given his place as the last remaining starting caliber catcher on the market, it seems likely his free agency comes to a head here at the winter meetings.
    If free agency doesn't prove a viable path for upgrading the position, it will be interesting to see what the team attempts via trade.  Logan O'Hoppe was reportedly the team's target at the trade deadline, but the Angels seem intent on attempting to compete in 2025.
    Bertz
    The duo over at The Athletic has been plugged into the Cubs thinking this winter.  This morning, they provide a little clarity on the teams' pursuit of starting pitching, as well as some timing:
    The wait on the Juan Soto sweepstakes and how that impacts the Cody Bellinger market is mentioned as a factor in the Cubs' decision making.  Presumably that could cut both ways, either allowing directly for a SP to be brought in as part of a Bellinger trade, or freeing up money to pursue a wider range of free agents.
    Walker Buehler is name checked as a potential target.  Though that middle class of free agent starters is moving quickly, so he may be gone by the time any requisite trade dominos fall.
    Bertz
    Tucked in an article about the Cubs' efforts to trade Cody Bellinger, Bruce Levine today also clarified targets for two other items on the to-do list: catcher and the bullpen.
    As the top two catchers on the (pretty weak) free agent catching market, Danny Jansen and Carson Kelly have long made sense as Cubs fits, but neither has had many tangible ties. Further, the note about Jansen's trade talks this winter appears to be new reporting.
    On the relief front, Chafin and Yates are both new names.  Again, they make sense logically; the Cubs need left-handed relief help.  Chafin is a long-time quality lefty setup man, and Yates' changeup allows the righty to function like a southpaw.
    Bertz
    Because of the logical fit, a Mariners/Cubs swap of infielders for starting pitching has been oft discussed in the blog-o-sphere.  Turns out it has been discussed in real life as well.
    No specific names are mentioned from Seattle's side, but it's hard to imagine someone other than one of their young starting pitchers being Jed's target.
    One potential wrinkle is that the Mariners seem to prefer addressing first and third base rather than the middle infield.
    Would Hoerner move over to third base? Or is Hoerner uniquely talented enough that they would move someone else internally over to the hot corner to accommodate him?
    Bertz
    This morning, MLB Network's JP Morosi lists the Cubs along with the Red Sox as notable candidates for White Sox ace Garret Crochet
    While cross-town deal are always more difficult to get across the line, the Jose Quintana and Craig Kimbrel deals in recent years have shown big deals can still get done between the clubs.
    Setting aside messy politics, the two clubs are actually very strong fits for each other on paper.  The Cubs want to add pitching talent, yet have self imposed payroll restrictions keeping them from shopping at the top of free agency.  Crochet's $3M projected salary can fit any team's budget.
    From the White Sox perspective, they're hoping to avoid furthering the historic levels of futility they displayed last year.  Selecting the Cubs as a trade partner allows them to acquire potential impact  minor league talent that has a first half of 2025 ETA and can help the big league club in short order.
     
    Matthew Lenz
    Hot off the press, Jon Morosi of MLB Network said the following about the Chicago Cubs (and Cincinnati Reds) regarding 25-year-old left-handed starter Garrett Crochet:
    Of note, he's also been linked to the Boston Red Sox on more than one occasion.
    Recently, the Chicago White Sox are said to be interested in prospects that are a little further away from the Majors as their current rebuild is going to be a multi-year effort.
    The 25-year-old southpaw became a full-time starter in 2024 after three seasons in a relief role and posted a 3.58 ERA / 2.69 FIP and an elite 29.6% K-BB rate across 146 innings. His 97 mile-per-hour fastball was one of the most effective pitches in baseball holding opponents to a .198 batting average and producing a run value of 15. He also has a cutter, sweeper, and changeup.
    Yes, the price will be immense but acquiring an elite 25-year-old, controllable starter is hard to pass up.
     
    Do you want the Cubs to deal with the South Siders?
    Brock Beauchamp
    MLB Trade Rumors recently wrote up a nice comprehensive list of teams that might be interested in trading for Cody Bellinger. They eliminated all teams operating under financial constraints (unfortunately, a significant portion of the league right now) and then looked for good on-field fits. Let's look at three teams that intrigued me:
    Toronto Blue Jays: With the big-budget Jays so often taking the role of bridesmaid in the pursuit of high-end free agents, it feels like they're destined to be scrambling for help after Juan Soto signs elsewhere. Their competitive window is likely going to close soon as some of their high-profile hitters enter free agency. Bellinger's short-term contract (one year, two at most) could fit well with a last-ditch attempt at competition.
    Los Angeles Angels: Every offseason, the Angels think they can compete. Every season, they fail to do so. While they're under new management now, ownership is the same and Arte Moreno loves to meddle in baseball affairs. Their farm system is bare but it won't take a haul to land Bellinger if the acquiring team takes on all the money. The Angels, as always, are unpredictable.
    New York Yankees: This is a very good fit if they don't re-sign Soto.
    It feels like any chance of a Bellinger trade rises significantly after Soto signs. If Soto signs next week, we could see Bellinger move quickly afterward. If Soto and agent Scott Boras decide to press the market, we could see Bellinger trade talks remain quiet into 2025.
    Bertz
    Echoing national reports, the local writers for The Athletic this morning indicated that the Cubs would be doing their offseason shopping in the "upper-middle" tier of the free agent market, trusting their pitching development to get the most out of their acquisition.
    Sharma and Mooney also indicated that the Qualifying Offer is a major factor of consideration in their targets, seemingly ruling out upper middle options like Nick Pivetta and Sean Manaea.
    Nate Eovaldi and Walker Buehler both get name checked as players who would fit the team's parameters, though it may also be that the Cubs instead turn to the trade market to do their shopping.
    Brock Beauchamp
    This is disappointing news but hardly surprising to Cubs fans.
    Bob Nightengale of USA Today mentioned that Jed Hoyer and the Cubs are "probably out" on the top end of the free agent market this season. That means no to Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, or Blake Snell donning Cubs blue in 2025.
    Coupled with rumors of the Cubs slightly scaling back payroll and Cubs fans could be in for a long, dark winter after yet another mediocre 83-79 finish to the 2024 season.
     
    Transmogrified Tiger
    In a recent piece by The Athletic, rival front offices are suggesting that Jed Hoyer is interested in trading Cody Bellinger.
    This isn't startling news but it's still noteworthy. When Bellinger opted into the second year of his contract, speculation began about the future of the centerfielder and first baseman.
    The Cubs have both center field and first base covered in Pete Crow-Armstrong and Michael Busch, respectively.
    The source here seems to be *other* front offices so worth taking with a grain of salt, but Rosenthal's words carry weight so worth taking into consideration.
    Bertz
    The Cubs on Wednesday added reliever Eli Morgan from the Guardians and catcher Matt Thaiss from the Angels.  According to The Athletic the Cubs are still looking to further bolster both areas of the roster.
    Morgan not being the only planned reliever add this offseason is not surprising considering how often Jed Hoyer has used the word "depth" when discussing the bullpen.  Matt Thaiss at catcher was a little more ambiguous, though the team is thin at catcher in AAA as well so it's a position that could use some depth as well.
    Given that the Cubs have not yet spent significant money this winter, paired with neither position moving much yet in free agency (with the notable exception of Travis d'Arnaud), any player the team was eying before Wednesday's moves is likely still on the table.
    Matthew Lenz
    In his latest offseason update, Jeff Passan of ESPN identified Yusei Kikuchi and Nick Pivetta as two "upper-middle-tier starters" that the Cubs could pursue to solidify their starting rotation.
    Kikuchi is 33 years old and coming off a very productive second half of 2024 with the Houston Astros. After 106 so-so innings with the Toronto Blue Jays, he was moved at the trade deadline to help the 'Stros make their postseason push. He rewarded them with a 3.49 ERA / 3.11 FIP and a 24.8% K-BB rate. MLBTR ranks Kikuchi as their 12th best free agent and predicts him to get $60 million over three years in free agency.
    Pivetta is expected to decline the Qualifying Offer he received from the Boston Red Sox as Passan states that he will get a multiple year deal in the free agent market. Pivetta has been a very solid and reliable starter of his eight year career and , in 2024 he improved upon careers marks with a 4.07 FIP and a 22.9% K-BB rate. Arguably his biggest red flag is his penchant to give up home runs as an extreme fly ball pitcher, but that would be less of a concern at the spacious confines of Wrigley Field.
    Which of these two starters would you prefer the Cubs pursue?
     
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