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  • Chicago Cubs Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

    The latest Chicago Cubs free agent and trade rumors, along with notes and tidbits about the team.
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    Brock Beauchamp
    The Athletic published this great piece from Sahadev Sharma, interviewing baseball personnel about Cody Bellinger and what to expect this winter.
    In it, they run through the ups and downs of Cody Bellinger since he won the MVP award in 2019, his later fall from grace, and his 2023 rebound with the Cubs. There's a lot to unpack, as they talk in relative detail about his successful 2023 campaign and some of the underlying metrics that still give cause for concern, such as his continued unimpressive exit velocity and hard-hit balls that led to a .319 BABIP, the highest of Bellinger's career.
    There's also a lot to like about Bellinger: he's still only 28 years old and his athleticism and defensive flexibility lend weight to the idea that he will age well through a long-term contract.
    Personally, I'm generally against paying long-term for a player based on one season of play. Yes, Bellinger had quite a track record from 2017-2019 but that drop-off, followed by underlying metric concerns, make me question committing 5+ years to him.
    Couple that with Bellinger's agent, Scott Boras, often taking his clients deep into the offseason in an attempt to maximize the return on a contract, and the Cubs might be taking a significant risk by holding out on other options in hopes of landing Bellinger in January or even February.
    Brock Beauchamp
    I'm not sure what to think of this posting. Uwasawa has announced intention to post for MLB teams this winter. The 29-year-old righty turns 30 before the 2024 season will begin and is known as a finesse pitcher, offering a fastball that sits around 91mph.
    Over the past three seasons, Uwasawa has pitched roughly 490 innings with an ERA right around 3.00 but his strikeout rate is well under one batter per inning. Other Japanese pitchers have posted similar numbers and later had great success in Major League Baseball (see Maeda, Kenta). Maeda came to the Dodgers for his age 28 season but, similarly to Uwasawa, offers a fastball in the low-90s and struck out well under one batter per inning in Japan. Upon arriving in the US, Maeda's numbers jumped considerably as he began striking out 9.9 batters per nine innings during his MLB career.
    Like many Japanese pitchers, Uwasawa has a "kitchen-sink-and-the-entire-toolshed" pitch arsenal. He throws a four-seamer, forkball, cutter, changeup, slider, and knuckle curve. Reports on the efficacy of his secondary and tertiary offerings vary.
    Recently, Uwasawa held a throwing session for several MLB teams and the Cubs were in attendance.
    Brock Beauchamp
    According to 670 The Score, the Cubs are interested in a trade for who is probably the best all-around hitter in baseball, Juan Soto.
    Soto was traded to the Padres at the trade deadline in 2022. The 25-year-old lefty has a career 157 OPS+ with a .421 on-base percentage. He also becomes a free agent after the 2024 season and because his agent is Scott Boras, he'll likely explore that option.
    The Padres, after making two hard pushes for a championship and making it to the NLCS in 2022, are reportedly cutting nearly $50 million from payroll in 2024. Despite having only one year remaining, the price for Soto will remain high and suitors plentiful.
    Is this a smart move for the Cubs front office? Does Soto fill a need large enough to warrant the price?
    Brock Beauchamp
    It has been reported by 670 The Score that the Cubs and starting pitcher Kyle Hendricks have discussed a contract extension.
    The Cubs hold a $16 million team option on Hendricks for the 2024 season with a $1.5 million buyout. Hendricks had a nice bounceback season in 2023, posting a 3.74 ERA over 137 innings pitched. He will be entering his age 34 season in 2024 and struggled through much of 2021 and 2022.
    It's hard to get a read on what a Hendricks extension might look like given his recent struggles. Is he willing to take less money and/or fewer years to stay with the Cubs or is he going to leverage his above-average 2023 season into a longer term deal?
    Brock Beauchamp
    This is a really handy guide to kick off the Cubs' offseason, courtesy of the fine folks at MLBTR.
    It runs through guaranteed commitments, arbitration and options decisions, and departing free agents. It's a pretty comprehensive read to get your head in the right space for the coming madness of the hot stove.
    Matthew Trueblood
    In a big story with just over 90 minutes left before the deadline, Ken Rosenthal reports that the Mets are committing to a step back in 2024, the better to contend in 2025 and beyond. The details here are numerous and unmistakable. 
    This has to make the odds of a Pete Alonso trade shoot through the roof. Alonso is only under team control through 2024. It's time to take this notion from the land of idle thought to the realm of very serious consideration: What should the Cubs be willing to give up to make Alonso their first baseman for the next year and a half?
    Matthew Trueblood
    The Cubs (along with the Brewers and Twins) are among potential landing spots for Arizona Diamondbacks reliever Andrew Chafin, according to a tweet from Jon Heyman. There's no question the Cubs are in the market for a lefty reliever, and old friend and failed starter Chafin would be like slipping into a comfortable pair of old sneakers.
    I think, though, that the Cubs are trying to buy a new pair instead. This feels like a fallback maneuver, should their pursuit of both Aaron Bummer and Brooks Raley come to naught. In fact, that might be the case for all three of the teams Heyman listed. 
    What do you think? A return engagement for Chafin?
    Matthew Trueblood
    There are mystery teams in the mix for Mets starter and future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander as the trade deadline nears, according to Jon Heyman. He lists the Dodgers and Astros as the non-mystery suitors, so maybe the mystery team is really just the Orioles, who have been mentioned in connection with him elsewhere.
    Still, it's worth a mention that the Mets paid down Max Scherzer's deal enormously in order to juice the prospect return in their recent trade with the Rangers. In fact, Steve Cohen is making a habit of that tactic, continuing to carry the salaries even of players shipped off to other teams. He's bearing the luxury tax burden even as the team is disassembled, to maximize the talent the team can acquire.
    If the Mets are willing to do that with Verlander's humongous 2023 salary, and to eat a chunk of his $43 million and change in 2024, would you give up one of the Cubs system's top prospects to (finally) make Verlander a Cub? It sounds crazy, but since this wouldn't be a pure rental and it would be a difference-maker in the NL Central, I'm not sure at all that it is.
    Photo Credit: © Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
    Brock Beauchamp
    I will preface this with "Bob Nightengale alert!" The man is notorious for mis-stating points, and that's when he's not misspelling names, getting wrong dates, or a host of other issues with his tweet history.
    But if this is true, it's an enticing lure to the Cubs.
    Eduardo Rodriguez is amidst a breakout season. The 30-year-old lefty has a 2.95 ERA through 88.1 innings pitched and is under contract through the 2026 season at $15-18 million per season.
    Michael Lorenzen is a much lower-risk and lower-cost alternative, as he is a free agent at season's end. He is currently sporting a 122 ERA+ with 105 innings pitched.
    KCCub
    The Cubs have shown interest in Pirates' right-handed reliever, David Bednar.
    Bednar is a late-bloomer and has emerged as Pittsburgh's closer over the past two seasons, during which he has a 2.03 ERA in 93.1 innings pitched, while striking out 11.7 batters per nine innings.
    He will come at a costly price. Bednar is under arbitration through the conclusion of the 2026 season. He fits in with a longer-term play by Jed Hoyer but should the Cubs choose to go this route, expect the prospects going to Pittsburgh to be significant.
    Bednar would take a haul obviously with his 3.5 years of control. What type of package would it take?
    Brock Beauchamp
    Jesse Rogers of ESPN reported that the Cubs have taken Cody Bellinger off the trade market.
    The Cubs have been on an absolutely tear coming out the break, winning eight in a row and moving only 3.5 games back in the National League Central and 3.0 games back for the final Wild Card berth.
    If Bellinger is off the market and the Cubs' starting rotation facing some question marks, it's possible Marcus Stroman is quietly being taken off the market, as well, or at least his asking price has raised.
    Given the number of expiring contracts available on the trade market, standing pat doesn't make much sense, either. The Cubs should be able to upgrade their bullpen and round out their lineup for relatively little cost, all considering. So who do you think Hoyer & Co should target?
    Brock Beauchamp
    If the Cubs keep winning, it feels like buying at the deadline becomes inevitable, which is good news for the Cubs because up to this point, the deadline has been rather quiet, as there are many teams still on the fence about selling and few selling teams have have clear upgrades at positions. MLBTR's Anthony Franco runs through the best remaining trade targets heading into the final 72 hours before the trade deadline.
    Of particular interest to the Cubs:
    Josh Hader: RP, San Diego Padres Michael Lorenzen: SP, Detroit Tigers Eduardo Rodriguez: SP, Detroit Tigers Paul Sewald: RP, Seattle Mariners Scott Barlow, RP, Kansas City Royals Who are your favorite trade targets and why?
    Brock Beauchamp
    Patrick Mooney wrote a lengthy piece for The Athletic today, focusing on the Cubs' recent resurgence and the struggles of Marcus Stroman. Here's an interesting quote from Stroman:
    "Like I said, I feel like ever since London I’ve been off slightly mechanically. The rhythm and the consistency of my slider has just been a little off. The sinker’s good, but then when I go to get to my slider, I feel like it’s very different mechanically. So I’m just looking to find some unity, some uniformity. I’ll get there.”
    Stroman is obviously acknowledging his recent struggles and pointing to a potential cause for those struggles.
    Mooney goes on to talk more about the Cubs' recent performance under Ross, the fact that this team is largely Jed Hoyer's team, and those players deserve to be rewarded with a true push at making the postseason.
    (I'll take this moment to say that if you're not already subscribing to The Athletic, I highly encourage you to do so)
    What do you think, has this team "earned" the right to make a stretch run or is selling still the prudent decision?
     
    Matthew Trueblood
    In Ken Rosenthal's latest notes column at The Athletic, he focuses on the Mariners, who might be in an even weirder, more challenging spot than the Cubs. According to Rosenthal, Jerry Dipoto is open to trading one of the team's several good, controllable, young starting pitchers, but only in a deal that would increase (or at least preserve) the team's chances for 2023.
    Good luck, Jerry. That's a reasonable position to take, hut it makes an actual move involving any of Seattle's starters unlikely. Still, if such a move were to happen, the Cubs could be a fascinating fit. They could make Marcus Stroman an important (though secondary) piece of a deal for, say, Logan Gilbert. 
    The Cubs have young pitching almost as promising as the Mariners' stuff, but a year or two behind them. One of those guys (Cade Horton, Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, or even Hayden Wesneski) could be the foundation of a trade. There are other, even wilder fits, too. Christopher Morel could play second base for the Mariners, and that seems to be his best defensive home, by a mile.
    The Cubs could also inquire on the (presumably very high) price of closer Paul Sewald, who'd be a superb addition to their bullpen and is under team control for 2024, and on the (likely much more realistic) cost of Teoscar Hernandez, who would be a strong right-handed bat for the middle of the lineup. 
    We're going to see fewer pure buy/sell trades this deadline, because there are several teams right where the Cubs and Mariners are. That could make for some interesting trades (and trade rumors) over the coming days, though.
    Matthew Trueblood
    According to Jon Morosi, the Marlins are among the teams looking into Cody Bellinger this week. That’s a new and surprising suitor, but with Jazz Chisholm Jr. nursing a strained oblique, the need is there. 
    A realistic fit is trickier. The Cubs are playing their way further and further from seller status. Unless the Marlins included one of their top prospects—arms Max Meyer (on the road back from Tommy John surgery) or Jake Eder, or Cuban emigre and tool shed shortstop Yiddi Cappe—it’s hard to see it working out. Still, it’s an intriguing option, because the Marlins are a hungry (maybe desperate) enough team to overpay a bit.
    If the Cubs keep winning, this could all be academic. We’re not there yet, though.
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