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  • Chicago Cubs Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

    The latest Chicago Cubs free agent and trade rumors, along with notes and tidbits about the team.
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    Brock Beauchamp
    Daniel Kramer of MLB.com is reporting that the Mariners are unlikely to pursue free agent Shohei Ohtani this winter. The Mariners were considered players for Ohtani as we approached the offseason.
    One fewer team in the mix is good news for the Cubs, who are expected to be aggressive pursuing the two-way player this offseason. Additionally, rumors are circling that Ohtani plans to make a decision early in the offseason, perhaps even before the Winter Meetings in early December.
    The major players in the race for Ohtani are the usual suspects: Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, and Cubs. Given the sky-high asking price Ohtani will demand, two-thirds of baseball teams were out of the running before it began.
    Stay tuned, we'll cover any and all Ohtani news as it happens.
    Brock Beauchamp
    Now that non-tender day has come and gone, the free agent list is as robust as it will be all winter.
    The Cubs have many, long-reaching choices in front of them. With the departure of Cody Bellinger and Marcus Stroman in free agency, the team is considerably worse now than it was on the final day of the season.
    Unfortunately, the positional player market is the thinnest we've seen in years. But the pitching free agent class it quite deep, if not particularly great at the ace level.
    Matthew Trueblood
    Jesse Rogers dropped an article this morning loaded with a lot of juicy rumors, including a repeated, seemingly thematic return to Shohei Ohtani as the focal point of the Cubs' offseason.
    That's awfully juicy, in itself, but Rogers also mentions that the Cubs are much less likely to retain Cody Bellinger than to sign Ohtani. That sentence, with the embedded implication that they have some measurable, significant chance to sign Ohtani at all, is exciting, but it's also newsworthy for the implication that Bellinger and Scott Boras are more likely to find their payday elsewhere--an idea on which Rogers then expands quite a bit.
    Already, there's more smoke than I might have expected there to be around the Cubs and Ohtani. That doesn't mean we should sound the fire alarms yet. No one is saying they're the favorites for him. It's just becoming clear how much they will try, and that their offseason could very well turn on their pursuit of him.
    Other notes in here, by the way, address Pete Alonso's potential availability (with Christopher Morel as a centerpiece going the other way; that seems improbable to me, but it's compelling) and the notion of a Cubs-Brewers trade involving Corbin Burnes (whoa). It's a fun little digest of rumors for a Thursday morning.
    Photo credit: © Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
    Brock Beauchamp
    Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic are reporting the Cubs might be interested in signing first baseman Rhys Hoskins.
    Hoskins, who will be entering his age 31 season in 2024, missed all of the 2023 season with a torn ACL he suffered in Spring Training. He has a career 125 OPS+ and should he return to form, is one of the more potent bats available in this weak free agents position player class.
    The Cubs have options at first base but if they're truly interested in trading Christopher Morel and do not re-sign Cody Bellinger, first base is wide open. It's unlikely the team will be keen to hand the job to Matt Mervis on Opening Day so it's likely they do some amount of roster shuffling to improve the team at first. Hoskins is probably the best bat and will likely be looking for a short-term contract to reestablish value so the deal makes sense from both sides.
    It should be noted Hoskins is a Boras client.
    Brock Beauchamp
    With the abruptly-ended GM Meetings now over, reporters are putting together their notes and while the Cubs have remained mum on the subject, rival executives expect the North Siders to be in play for Ohtani this winter.
    When Ohtani posted to MLB, he almost exclusively negotiated with west coast teams before landing with the Angels (a decision he surely regrets at this point). While he didn't speak to any New York or east coast teams, he did take the Cubs' calls.
    We really have no idea what is in Ohtani's head, as he's been very quiet on his expectations. He'll also basically write his own contract. If he wants a 13-year deal, he'll get it. If he wants an 8-year deal with an enormous AAV, he'll get it. If he wants opt-outs every two years, he'll get it. Pure dollars are not going to get it done in this specific case and, unlike most free agent deals, teams will be selling themselves to Ohtani. Can the Cubs make a compelling pitch? Several rival General Managers seem to think so:
     
    Bertz
    Justin Turner is still a very solid hitter, but probably has no business at third base at this point.
    Jon Morosi tweeted that Turner is a good match for the Cubs and points out that the Brewers (while Counsell was manager there) made a push to sign him following the 2020 season. The Cubs are in need of a third baseman but it requires some squinting to see Turner being a guy you want to trot out to the hot corner every day, or even maybe most days.
    Brock Beauchamp
    It has been reported the Cubs are likely to entertain offers for Christopher Morel, reports Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic. Morel, 24 years old, has posted a career 110 OPS+ over 854 career plate appearances. He's defensively flexible in the sense that he can hold a glove and stand in a specific spot but isn't known for being a plus glove anywhere on the field. His bat still has some projection in it given his age but unless it does, he'll likely remain a bat-first utility or 10th man in a lineup.
    Morel is pre-arbitration so he has years of team control remaining, which could make him appealing to a smaller market team with an open contention window. Given the Cubs' needs at several roster spots, it's hard to predict what kind of package they could be looking for in a Morel trade.
    Brock Beauchamp
    The Athletic published this great piece from Sahadev Sharma, interviewing baseball personnel about Cody Bellinger and what to expect this winter.
    In it, they run through the ups and downs of Cody Bellinger since he won the MVP award in 2019, his later fall from grace, and his 2023 rebound with the Cubs. There's a lot to unpack, as they talk in relative detail about his successful 2023 campaign and some of the underlying metrics that still give cause for concern, such as his continued unimpressive exit velocity and hard-hit balls that led to a .319 BABIP, the highest of Bellinger's career.
    There's also a lot to like about Bellinger: he's still only 28 years old and his athleticism and defensive flexibility lend weight to the idea that he will age well through a long-term contract.
    Personally, I'm generally against paying long-term for a player based on one season of play. Yes, Bellinger had quite a track record from 2017-2019 but that drop-off, followed by underlying metric concerns, make me question committing 5+ years to him.
    Couple that with Bellinger's agent, Scott Boras, often taking his clients deep into the offseason in an attempt to maximize the return on a contract, and the Cubs might be taking a significant risk by holding out on other options in hopes of landing Bellinger in January or even February.
    Brock Beauchamp
    I'm not sure what to think of this posting. Uwasawa has announced intention to post for MLB teams this winter. The 29-year-old righty turns 30 before the 2024 season will begin and is known as a finesse pitcher, offering a fastball that sits around 91mph.
    Over the past three seasons, Uwasawa has pitched roughly 490 innings with an ERA right around 3.00 but his strikeout rate is well under one batter per inning. Other Japanese pitchers have posted similar numbers and later had great success in Major League Baseball (see Maeda, Kenta). Maeda came to the Dodgers for his age 28 season but, similarly to Uwasawa, offers a fastball in the low-90s and struck out well under one batter per inning in Japan. Upon arriving in the US, Maeda's numbers jumped considerably as he began striking out 9.9 batters per nine innings during his MLB career.
    Like many Japanese pitchers, Uwasawa has a "kitchen-sink-and-the-entire-toolshed" pitch arsenal. He throws a four-seamer, forkball, cutter, changeup, slider, and knuckle curve. Reports on the efficacy of his secondary and tertiary offerings vary.
    Recently, Uwasawa held a throwing session for several MLB teams and the Cubs were in attendance.
    Brock Beauchamp
    According to 670 The Score, the Cubs are interested in a trade for who is probably the best all-around hitter in baseball, Juan Soto.
    Soto was traded to the Padres at the trade deadline in 2022. The 25-year-old lefty has a career 157 OPS+ with a .421 on-base percentage. He also becomes a free agent after the 2024 season and because his agent is Scott Boras, he'll likely explore that option.
    The Padres, after making two hard pushes for a championship and making it to the NLCS in 2022, are reportedly cutting nearly $50 million from payroll in 2024. Despite having only one year remaining, the price for Soto will remain high and suitors plentiful.
    Is this a smart move for the Cubs front office? Does Soto fill a need large enough to warrant the price?
    Brock Beauchamp
    It has been reported by 670 The Score that the Cubs and starting pitcher Kyle Hendricks have discussed a contract extension.
    The Cubs hold a $16 million team option on Hendricks for the 2024 season with a $1.5 million buyout. Hendricks had a nice bounceback season in 2023, posting a 3.74 ERA over 137 innings pitched. He will be entering his age 34 season in 2024 and struggled through much of 2021 and 2022.
    It's hard to get a read on what a Hendricks extension might look like given his recent struggles. Is he willing to take less money and/or fewer years to stay with the Cubs or is he going to leverage his above-average 2023 season into a longer term deal?
    Brock Beauchamp
    This is a really handy guide to kick off the Cubs' offseason, courtesy of the fine folks at MLBTR.
    It runs through guaranteed commitments, arbitration and options decisions, and departing free agents. It's a pretty comprehensive read to get your head in the right space for the coming madness of the hot stove.
    Matthew Trueblood
    In a big story with just over 90 minutes left before the deadline, Ken Rosenthal reports that the Mets are committing to a step back in 2024, the better to contend in 2025 and beyond. The details here are numerous and unmistakable. 
    This has to make the odds of a Pete Alonso trade shoot through the roof. Alonso is only under team control through 2024. It's time to take this notion from the land of idle thought to the realm of very serious consideration: What should the Cubs be willing to give up to make Alonso their first baseman for the next year and a half?
    Matthew Trueblood
    The Cubs (along with the Brewers and Twins) are among potential landing spots for Arizona Diamondbacks reliever Andrew Chafin, according to a tweet from Jon Heyman. There's no question the Cubs are in the market for a lefty reliever, and old friend and failed starter Chafin would be like slipping into a comfortable pair of old sneakers.
    I think, though, that the Cubs are trying to buy a new pair instead. This feels like a fallback maneuver, should their pursuit of both Aaron Bummer and Brooks Raley come to naught. In fact, that might be the case for all three of the teams Heyman listed. 
    What do you think? A return engagement for Chafin?
    Matthew Trueblood
    There are mystery teams in the mix for Mets starter and future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander as the trade deadline nears, according to Jon Heyman. He lists the Dodgers and Astros as the non-mystery suitors, so maybe the mystery team is really just the Orioles, who have been mentioned in connection with him elsewhere.
    Still, it's worth a mention that the Mets paid down Max Scherzer's deal enormously in order to juice the prospect return in their recent trade with the Rangers. In fact, Steve Cohen is making a habit of that tactic, continuing to carry the salaries even of players shipped off to other teams. He's bearing the luxury tax burden even as the team is disassembled, to maximize the talent the team can acquire.
    If the Mets are willing to do that with Verlander's humongous 2023 salary, and to eat a chunk of his $43 million and change in 2024, would you give up one of the Cubs system's top prospects to (finally) make Verlander a Cub? It sounds crazy, but since this wouldn't be a pure rental and it would be a difference-maker in the NL Central, I'm not sure at all that it is.
    Photo Credit: © Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
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