Cubs Looking At Free Agent Starters In The "Same Tier" As Shota Imanaga

The penalty side of the Qualifying Offer needs to go away in a big way.

Teams losing good players to free agency should get a pick. There should be no penalty for signing that player. It's salary suppression.

On one hand, if the Cubs are hand ringing over the picks, they need to get a bit braver. These picks, while useful, shouldn't be a stopping point for a big team. 

On the other hand, with going over the LT, it would reduce their 2025 IFA pool. And with Sasaki, it may mean they need every penny and they like their position with him for whatever reason. 

Ill remain entirely upset at the org if their answer is "Walker Buehler" only. But I can get behind a Buehler+trade for a front line guy.

5 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

On one hand, if the Cubs are hand ringing over the picks, they need to get a bit braver. These picks, while useful, shouldn't be a stopping point for a big team. 

On the other hand, with going over the LT, it would reduce their 2025 IFA pool. And with Sasaki, it may mean they need every penny and they like their position with him for whatever reason. 

Ill remain entirely upset at the org if their answer is "Walker Buehler" only. But I can get behind a Buehler+trade for a front line guy.

What about Eovaldi or Flaherty? There are FA pitchers of quality without the QO penalty attached. 

3 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

What about Eovaldi or Flaherty? There are FA pitchers of quality without the QO penalty attached. 

Either are fine single additions. If that's the biggedt offseason addition, the Cubs have probably not done enough.

Flaherty was not good in LAD and while I think Eovaldi can be an interesting addition, hes entering the back half of 30 and has had some small velo drops already. Hes fine. But that would mean the plan is essentially run-it-back, pray that Wrigley field fixes the offense and that a good #3 is the difference. That doesn't feel enough.

This is exactly how I said it would be, so I am not surprised at all. I am very anxious, however, to see how Jed moves in the trade market. FA will be boring. But Jed should be a major player in those needle-shifting trade talks. I hope he realizes he can't keep hoarding all the prospects. 

16 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

This is exactly how I said it would be, so I am not surprised at all. I am very anxious, however, to see how Jed moves in the trade market. FA will be boring. But Jed should be a major player in those needle-shifting trade talks. I hope he realizes he can't keep hoarding all the prospects. 

The hoarding of prospects is a reflection of the cub longtime mantra:

hope springs eternal & wait til next year

38 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Either are fine single additions. If that's the biggedt offseason addition, the Cubs have probably not done enough.

Flaherty was not good in LAD and while I think Eovaldi can be an interesting addition, hes entering the back half of 30 and has had some small velo drops already. Hes fine. But that would mean the plan is essentially run-it-back, pray that Wrigley field fixes the offense and that a good #3 is the difference. That doesn't feel enough.

Agreed. I am just talking about the pitching side of things in regards to FA. I am fine adding a pitcher in trade if they go that route. They also need to add a decent catcher and a solid pen arm. And then maybe take that flier on Bieber or Beuhler or add a decent bench bat or two. The idea of cutting payroll makes no sense to me. At least they should get to just under the LT, as they have done in the past. I realize they can’t do all of the above without making a trade. They don’t have the budget to do it all through FA. But between assets in the minors and the money they SHOULD spend, they can have a nice off season, and should have a nice off season. 

12 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

If the Shota tier is healthy players with a strong foundation and the athleticism to make adjustments then yay, right? I keep thinking Michael Lorenzen, who may have found a new pitch in his changeup, is a fit here among the FAs. Fear not, I’m also terrified of actually signing Michael Lorenzen because r-r-r-riiiisk (zoinks!) is so s-s-s-scary what if fail yada yada 

Stop dude, the Shota tier is 15-20M AAV on a short-term. Stop acting like they're not fundamentally out on the creme de la creme due to budget constraints. 

2 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Agreed. I am just talking about the pitching side of things in regards to FA. I am fine adding a pitcher in trade if they go that route. They also need to add a decent catcher and a solid pen arm. And then maybe take that flier on Bieber or Beuhler or add a decent bench bat or two. The idea of cutting payroll makes no sense to me. At least they should get to just under the LT, as they have done in the past. I realize they can’t do all of the above without making a trade. They don’t have the budget to do it all through FA. But between assets in the minors and the money they SHOULD spend, they can have a nice off season, and should have a nice off season. 

The cutting payroll thing is overblown. They're just going to get comfortably under the LT. Which I think we all expected. It's cheap, and Im not defending thr practice, but its not some massive cut either. Like, instead of spending right at the LT, I bet it's like $10m or whatever under it. Matt was talking about it in his front page article this AM. 

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

The cutting payroll thing is overblown. They're just going to get comfortably under the LT. Which I think we all expected. It's cheap, and Im not defending thr practice, but its not some massive cut either. Like, instead of spending right at the LT, I bet it's like $10m or whatever under it. Matt was talking about it in his front page article this AM. 

Cool. I have a hard time believing a true payroll cut is in order. My idea lines up much more with that you are suggesting. 

2 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

?? What? I genuinely have no idea what this is even attempting to address.

Curious too…What qualifies one to be a $15-20 AAV on a short term and who fits? What are you looking for? Funny enough Shota’s AAV is $13m, suggesting he didn’t qualify for his own tier heh 

Edit: Ftr Lorenzen’s changeup picked up ~20% whiffs and 3% pop ups…Throws 6 pitches, 4 getting double digit whiffs…avgs 94 with 2 fastballs, 90 on a cutter….healthy, durable, versatile, one of the best athletes in the league, just helped a team get to the playoffs…Other than not a super duper mega ultra ster seems like a player with plenty of appeal

I wouldn’t mind Lorenzen as the second guy they signed. Spot starter or even 5th starter. He can’t be the guy they pencil in ahead of Tailon and just go with him. 

2 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

?? What? I genuinely have no idea what this is even attempting to address.

Curious too…What qualifies one to be a $15-20 AAV on a short term and who fits? What are you looking for? Funny enough Shota’s AAV is $13m, suggesting he didn’t qualify for his own tier heh 

Edit: Ftr Lorenzen’s changeup picked up ~20% whiffs and 3% pop ups…Throws 6 pitches, 4 getting double digit whiffs…avgs 94 with 2 fastballs, 90 on a cutter….healthy, durable, versatile, one of the best athletes in the league, just helped a team get to the playoffs…Other than not a super duper mega ultra ster seems like a player with plenty of appeal

Seems like you're downplaying the fact that Jed plays in the safe/cheap tier because of reasons other than budget and that's disingenuous to me. 

13, 15, it's all the same. 

I am torn between loving Nate Eovaldi in isolation and hating an offseason where he's the headline move.

I'd love some indication beyond wish casting around here that they're planning to both sign and trade for a starter.  That still feels like the logical way to thread the needle between Jed/ownership's austerity impulses and the fans' desire for impact.

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

I am torn between loving Nate Eovaldi in isolation and hating an offseason where he's the headline move.

I'd love some indication beyond wish casting around here that they're planning to both sign and trade for a starter.  That still feels like the logical way to thread the needle between Jed/ownership's austerity impulses and the fans' desire for impact.

Agreed. If the trade piece doesn't happen this off-season we have to hope the plan is to sign an Eovaldi level SP, address catcher/BP/bench bat with the idea being "improving the margins" enough to have us in the division hunt and then swing a significant trade for a cost controlled arm at the TDL. 

I'd rather the trade happen now opposed to waiting, but I guess there can be some positives for waiting until the deadline IF that ultimately becomes Jed's plan. 

Not surprise at all . I do think that they are facing some sort of payroll cut . While it may not be big , it does have an impact . We have to remember that they dont use all available money in the off season .

If they are facing a 10 mil or so cut then they would have like 40 left and when you factor the money for in season , then i wouldnt be surprised if they have closer to 30 available , ínstead of 50 .

So far they have traded for a cheap reliever that pitched more like 4:00 era guy last season , sign two pre arbi deals with a couple guys out of options that some could argue should have been non tendered . Finally traded for a junk back up catcher candidate.

The moves they are making point to an executive , who is facing payroll cut IMO . I think their best bet to try and compete, would be keeping Bellinger , trading for a cost control SP and signing Sasaki . 
 

Use the limited funds they have after that and get 1 or two real reliever s  and a couple of bench bats .

On 11/27/2024 at 10:45 AM, 1908_Cubs said:

Either are fine single additions. If that's the biggedt offseason addition, the Cubs have probably not done enough.

Flaherty was not good in LAD and while I think Eovaldi can be an interesting addition, hes entering the back half of 30 and has had some small velo drops already. Hes fine. But that would mean the plan is essentially run-it-back, pray that Wrigley field fixes the offense and that a good #3 is the difference. That doesn't feel enough.

Cubs signing just a solid mid-tier SP like a Taillon-type would feel like a letdown i agree, but it would depend on how they spend the money saved between that player and a top tier SP.  The difference in WAR between between them would likely be around 1.0 to 1.5.  If they save 6-10m on their main FA SP and spend that to upgrade elsewhere, like the pen or catcher or a 2nd SP, and that upgrade is worth another 1.0 to 1.5 WAR, then it evens out and the point is moot.  If they pocket that cash or spend it on the next Trey Mancini contract then it's a letdown.

My main hope this winter like every offseason is they take whatever payroll Ricketts gives them and they maximize the potential WAR added with that money.  How it shakes out it doesn't matter a lot at the end of the day.  We all like having/watching top-tier players but wins are the important thing, the rest is just emotion, and investing based on emotion is very unwise. (not saying you support that).

6 hours ago, Stratos said:

Cubs signing just a solid mid-tier SP like a Taillon-type would feel like a letdown i agree, but it would depend on how they spend the money saved between that player and a top tier SP.  The difference in WAR between between them would likely be around 1.0 to 1.5.  If they save 6-10m on their main FA SP and spend that to upgrade elsewhere, like the pen or catcher or a 2nd SP, and that upgrade is worth another 1.0 to 1.5 WAR, then it evens out and the point is moot.  If they pocket that cash or spend it on the next Trey Mancini contract then it's a letdown.

My main hope this winter like every offseason is they take whatever payroll Ricketts gives them and they maximize the potential WAR added with that money.  How it shakes out it doesn't matter a lot at the end of the day.  We all like having/watching top-tier players but wins are the important thing, the rest is just emotion, and investing based on emotion is very unwise. (not saying you support that).

I agree. I think there is an off season where someone like Eovaldi or Flaherty could be the biggest addition in name and they still improve a lot. Adding a decent pen arm (Holmes) to Morgan and you improve the pen. Adding a decent back up catcher helps there. They can also add either another swing starter or a decent bench bat. Maybe both if they make a trade and don’t have to add everyone via free agency. They have enough money to spend and minor league assets to trade to do all of that, with Eovaldi being the biggest name. And have a good off season. 

8 hours ago, Stratos said:

Cubs signing just a solid mid-tier SP like a Taillon-type would feel like a letdown i agree, but it would depend on how they spend the money saved between that player and a top tier SP.  The difference in WAR between between them would likely be around 1.0 to 1.5.  If they save 6-10m on their main FA SP and spend that to upgrade elsewhere, like the pen or catcher or a 2nd SP, and that upgrade is worth another 1.0 to 1.5 WAR, then it evens out and the point is moot.  If they pocket that cash or spend it on the next Trey Mancini contract then it's a letdown.

My main hope this winter like every offseason is they take whatever payroll Ricketts gives them and they maximize the potential WAR added with that money.  How it shakes out it doesn't matter a lot at the end of the day.  We all like having/watching top-tier players but wins are the important thing, the rest is just emotion, and investing based on emotion is very unwise. (not saying you support that).

The rotation is realistically the only place to add bulk wins.

- The bench and bullpen, while both clearly needing to be addressed, do not offer the playing time required to rack up a lot of impact

- Every starting spot on the roster (sans arguably catcher) is filled with a quality first division starter.  So the team specific replacement level is quite high, and purchasing WAR doesn't really translate much into added wins

So if the team half asses it with the rotation, say adding Walker Buehler and calling it a day, we're basically locked in to a mediocre offseason.

That's not the end of the world, the team would probably be modest favorites to win the division and with the crew at Iowa probably have as much additional upside as any team in the league.  But it would very much be a missed opportunity and fly in the face of the "90 win projection" comments from the end of the season.

Nothing in here is worth starting a new topic for, but a couple things stood out to me:

- Sharma and Mooney seemed pretty confident the team will make a trade of consequence.  Not really any details on who, or even certainty it would be a SP.  Sharma focused on the Mariners, and Mooney brought up Jordan Montgomery or one of the Twins SPs, but it all seemed spitbally 

- The team wasn't hot after Kikuchi.  He's in the tier they're looking at but it sounded like they would basically "get around" to him.  They also confirmed the rough level of investment the team is trying to make is $20-25M a year for 2-4 years.  Sharma focused on Nate Eovaldi, but again it felt like putting pieces together and not reporting intent

10 hours ago, Bertz said:

The rotation is realistically the only place to add bulk wins.

- The bench and bullpen, while both clearly needing to be addressed, do not offer the playing time required to rack up a lot of impact

- Every starting spot on the roster (sans arguably catcher) is filled with a quality first division starter.  So the team specific replacement level is quite high, and purchasing WAR doesn't really translate much into added wins

So if the team half asses it with the rotation, say adding Walker Buehler and calling it a day, we're basically locked in to a mediocre offseason.

That's not the end of the world, the team would probably be modest favorites to win the division and with the crew at Iowa probably have as much additional upside as any team in the league.  But it would very much be a missed opportunity and fly in the face of the "90 win projection" comments from the end of the season.

I agree rotation is the most obvious place to add wins.  Walker Buehler is multiple steps and multiple wins down from the top tier FA SP, but i don't think they go that low.

Unless they trade for an SP, I think the Cubs as always will likely check in on all the quality FA SP they could be interested in and sign the one that's the best bang for the buck.

5 hours ago, Bertz said:

 

Nothing in here is worth starting a new topic for, but a couple things stood out to me:

- Sharma and Mooney seemed pretty confident the team will make a trade of consequence.  Not really any details on who, or even certainty it would be a SP.  Sharma focused on the Mariners, and Mooney brought up Jordan Montgomery or one of the Twins SPs, but it all seemed spitbally 

- The team wasn't hot after Kikuchi.  He's in the tier they're looking at but it sounded like they would basically "get around" to him.  They also confirmed the rough level of investment the team is trying to make is $20-25M a year for 2-4 years.  Sharma focused on Nate Eovaldi, but again it felt like putting pieces together and not reporting intent

I enjoy their podcast.  Part 1 of that mailbag from a few days ago they dispel the fears of the Cubs cutting payroll.  They think Bellinger opting in has just limited them on payroll space so they're trying to maximize payroll room to add.  That seems most likely.