Potential Cody Bellinger Trade With Yankees Held Up Over Disagreement On Dollars

The Yankees are currently about ~$50M south of last year's payroll, and if you add Bellinger and Bregman they  probably project as the best team in the league (until the Dodgers inevitably add Teoscar and Sasaki).

I'm curious how much of this is about 2025 dollars and how much is about 2026.  Because if it's about 2026 the simple solution seems to be sending along some conditional money based on Cody opting in.  For example pay Cody's $5M buyout if he opts out, pay $10M if he opts in.  2025 dollars feels a lot stickier to work through. 

This is ridiculous, Bellinger will help any and all of the rumored teams that are interested.  Find a team that will take him (and his contract) and give us something that will help the Cubs now.  If necessary expand the deal to get something of value.

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

I'm curious how much of this is about 2025 dollars and how much is about 2026.  Because if it's about 2026 the simple solution seems to be sending along some conditional money based on Cody opting in.  For example pay Cody's $5M buyout if he opts out, pay $10M if he opts in.  2025 dollars feels a lot stickier to work through. 

This is my thinking as well. The Yankees shouldn't be too worked up about 2025 dollars and the Cubs shouldn't be too worked up about 2026 conditional dollars.

They'll sweat each other out for a few days but come back together and get it done. It makes too much sense for both sides, and each wants to move on to more moves. 

This is what happens when you paint yourself into a corner trying to be the smartest guy in the room. 

16 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

This is what happens when you paint yourself into a corner trying to be the smartest guy in the room. 

Yep, Cashman really screwing this up for the Yankees. 

Just now, Rcal10 said:

Yep, Cashman really screwing this up for the Yankees. 

lol

Jed still kind of sucks, but how did he screw up the bellinger situation?

27 minutes ago, 17 Seconds said:

Jed still kind of sucks, but how did he screw up the bellinger situation?

I think handing him that big AAV contract in the first place? Hoyer is one of the few GMs that actively seeks to hand out high AAVs to get players to take shorter contracts but most other big markets typically tack on extra years to contracts to bring down the AAV on mega contracts. Also the multiple player options are wildly player friendly. 
 

So even though its short term, the contract is pretty untradeable without the cubs eating significant money. 

The contract isn't horrible, though. Sure, he's probably a bit more expensive than he should be. He's making $27.5m and based on a $9m/WAR quick napkin math, he's probably right there. Add in the $5m buyout when he walks, and you can argue he's a few million too much. 

With that said, the alternative is that the Cubs signed him to a multi-year extension at a lower AAV and he's signed for 5+ years longer. 

The Cubs shouldn't have to eat a ton. Bellinger at 1/25m, especially for a team willing to play him in CF, is probably fairly decent value. That's eating like $7.5m. Ultimately I expect the Cubs will trade him. This is a combination of the Cubs standing firm on their value and the Yankees trying to use the Tucker trade to their advantage and squeeze the Cubs a bit from a leverage standpoint. It's just trade negotiations from both sides The Cubs did the right thing and got Tucker over the finish line, this deal be damned. 

Every team knows they have to trade Bellinger. 

4 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Every team knows they have to trade Bellinger. 

They don't have to.  They want to, and it certainly makes filling out the rest of the roster easier, but they don't have to.

1 minute ago, mul21 said:

They don't have to.  They want to, and it certainly makes filling out the rest of the roster easier, but they don't have to.

tomato tomahto

I would have rather they signed Chapman last year than Bellinger, but that scenario only exists in an alternate, Kyle Tucker-less world so whatever. Every single person would have lost their horsefeathers if we had signed no one last year, and while he wasn't the best he was certainly better than a Jordan Montgomery path. It's fine, wish he would have played better and then opted out, whatever.

You can play the market perception game both ways. We have a logjam and a money crunch, the Yankees need a guy like Bellinger and him at 2 years is probably better than Santander at 6 or whatever. Both teams have a bunch of things going on right now and sorting out the combination of money and prospects heading in either direction probably depends on where the other moves fall out. If we had already signed a closer and an upper tier bench bat and we NEEDED to dump Bellinger to get back under the cap, sure, I'd be worried. Absolute worst case, we go into next year with a moderately inefficient allocation of talent. It's probably going to be fine. 

If Bellinger stays it means you need to do everything else on the cheap.  That said it's not that dire, and simply making Luzardo your other SP does most of the heavy lifting.

- There's we expect ~$15M to spend right now

- Bellinger staying means you don't need CF/1B for the bench, so really all you need is an IFer

- Luzardo costs $6M

- $9M for a late inning reliever likely means you either need to trade for that reliever, or alternatively use Workman as your bench IFer and then you can sign someone like Finnegan at about market price to close

It's tight but it's doable.  I'd also imagine it's all academic.  If the Yankees and Cubs can't work it out, once the Cubs start eating more money and/or taking on contracts it will open up a whole new set of teams.

11 minutes ago, Bertz said:

If Bellinger stays it means you need to do everything else on the cheap.  That said it's not that dire, and simply making Luzardo your other SP does most of the heavy lifting.

- There's we expect ~$15M to spend right now

- Bellinger staying means you don't need CF/1B for the bench, so really all you need is an IFer

- Luzardo costs $6M

- $9M for a late inning reliever likely means you either need to trade for that reliever, or alternatively use Workman as your bench IFer and then you can sign someone like Finnegan at about market price to close

It's tight but it's doable.  I'd also imagine it's all academic.  If the Yankees and Cubs can't work it out, once the Cubs start eating more money and/or taking on contracts it will open up a whole new set of teams.

I would make two caveats to this thinking.  

One is that it pretty much has to be Luzardo for SP, especially with the outgoing resources for Tucker means that doing a more substantial trade is less likely unless a team is in love with some down the list prospects(maybe Tampa?).  If the Marlins have a change in heart or Luzardo's medicals show he has boneitis, there's not an obvious plan B and you really need an SP.

The other is that you really, really need a bench infielder to provide some floor.  Doubly so because Paredes went for Tucker and they got Kelly over Jansen, the lineup as is risks being pretty shallow.  Imagine a sophomore slump for Busch and then look at the back half of what's projected, it's not great.  With that in mind, even though Tucker definitely helps, you can't risk an 80 wRC+ out of 3B, and as much as I'm intrigued by Workman and excited by Shaw, both of them struggling to that tune with the bat(at least in the first half for Shaw) is far from unlikely.

Long story short if I were Jed I would hold firm to see if I could get Luzardo over the finish line in the next couple days, but if not I think you have to yield.  Preferably that's the same money you want picked up but a lesser prospect return, but even if it's cash there are worse things than shaving a couple million off your budget for RP and bench.

6 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I would make two caveats to this thinking.  

One is that it pretty much has to be Luzardo for SP, especially with the outgoing resources for Tucker means that doing a more substantial trade is less likely unless a team is in love with some down the list prospects(maybe Tampa?).  If the Marlins have a change in heart or Luzardo's medicals show he has boneitis, there's not an obvious plan B and you really need an SP.

The other is that you really, really need a bench infielder to provide some floor.  Doubly so because Paredes went for Tucker and they got Kelly over Jansen, the lineup as is risks being pretty shallow.  Imagine a sophomore slump for Busch and then look at the back half of what's projected, it's not great.  With that in mind, even though Tucker definitely helps, you can't risk an 80 wRC+ out of 3B, and as much as I'm intrigued by Workman and excited by Shaw, both of them struggling to that tune with the bat(at least in the first half for Shaw) is far from unlikely.

Long story short if I were Jed I would hold firm to see if I could get Luzardo over the finish line in the next couple days, but if not I think you have to yield.  Preferably that's the same money you want picked up but a lesser prospect return, but even if it's cash there are worse things than shaving a couple million off your budget for RP and bench.

Or a sophomore slump by PCA or Imanaga.

This Monday, the days just appear to be brighter to come. It's amazing how getting our own "soto" just lifts the spirits for our team chances. Isn't it wonderful to be dealing with the difficulties of having a not necessary belli on the roster? I'll admit, jed stood tall last week far exceeding his 5'6" stature and came thru. For all those who cried about losing 3rdbaseman Morel last July, as a result we now have a rightfielder whose numbers compare to the latest billionaire not named ohtani. 2025 promises to be relevant for us in a chicago kinda place. I for one, anxiously await jeds next moves of cloak and dagger to muster up more ammunition for our exciting boys of summery love. 

YOU CAN DO IT JED 

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

If Bellinger stays it means you need to do everything else on the cheap.  That said it's not that dire, and simply making Luzardo your other SP does most of the heavy lifting.

- There's we expect ~$15M to spend right now

- Bellinger staying means you don't need CF/1B for the bench, so really all you need is an IFer

- Luzardo costs $6M

- $9M for a late inning reliever likely means you either need to trade for that reliever, or alternatively use Workman as your bench IFer and then you can sign someone like Finnegan at about market price to close

It's tight but it's doable.  I'd also imagine it's all academic.  If the Yankees and Cubs can't work it out, once the Cubs start eating more money and/or taking on contracts it will open up a whole new set of teams.

In this scenario, Minter makes perfect sense if they won't go after Scott. They love reclamation projects and his ceiling is significant. Might take 1/9 with a option for 11 for 2026 or something like that. I kind of believe we have enough RHRP to piece things together, but we are in dire need of a LHRP IMO.

The organization has Canario, Alcantara. Caissie and (likely) Triantos waiting in the OF wings.   There are still impact trades that can be made from this depth.   

What kind of SP could a Alcantara + Birdsell + Mulé package bring back, for instance? 

I think Luzardo is still a worthwhile target, but he isn't the only option.  

2 minutes ago, muntjack said:

The organization has Canario, Alcantara. Caissie and (likely) Triantos waiting in the OF wings.   There are still impact trades that can be made from this depth.   

What kind of SP could a Alcantara + Birdsell + Mulé package bring back, for instance? 

I think Luzardo is still a worthwhile target, but he isn't the only option.  

 

I like Alcantara and Birdsell, but it's probably not a much bigger target than Luzardo, if we are being honest. Alcantara is a modest step up from Triantos but not a world-shifter, and while I think Birdsell has utility, he's probably not being looked at much more than a #5 future SP in a trade. Mule, while he has upside, is a massive lottery ticket.

Still not sure why everyone puts Alcantara in trades over Caissie now that it's believed Alcantara has an additional year. I know Caissie is the safer bat, but one provides above average CF defense, which would be plus defense in the corner. 

Bruce talks Bellinger and Luzardo. Says he's heard Giants have inquired about Bellinger. Says you have to get a good player back for Bellinger, can't just be a straight salary dump, etc. Says they don't have to get the deal done immediately. 

e t

Jed knows what's available better than we do and if he's going after Luzardo he believes he is the best of the bunch and has the expendable ammo to make it happen.

When looking around the league and talking about giving up a top prospect for Luzardo and having 2/5 of your rotation be Luzardo and Boyd, I ultimately end up on "is Reid Detmers that much worse of a project with 4 years of control and likely a lesser price tag?"