Shota Imanaga Expected To Decline Qualifying Offer From Cubs

4 hours ago, Bertz said:

The Athletic this AM says that the team is still looking at the top of the FA SP market even after Imanaga.

Later on they did pump the brakes on the caliber of FA relievers we might expect going forward.  So my take would be that the plan is to add their impact starter and figure out the bullpen after.  I.e. if you sign Cease the bullpen needs to be filled with trades and reclamation signings, if you trade for Cabrera you can safely throw money at the pen.

Based on what we've heard it sure sounds like the money is going to the SP and the pen. There has been very little linking bats to the Cubs out of the platoon/bench variety. 

What is the plan for the offense? Anyone know? 

3 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

What is the plan for the offense? Anyone know? 

I think the answer is that either Caissie or Ballesteros will be the primary DH against RHH and they will bring in some sort of a platoon bat for them.

With so many contracts expiring at the end of 2026 - I’d hope we would be all in - but with this owner that never means financially. 

Obviously the best approach is to assume the worst, but if you focus just on what we're hearing this winter and don't anchor too hard on our priors coming into the offseason it does make you wonder if there's more money to play with than we've been accounting for.  Consider:

- The team is ~$55M under the luxury tax right now, and using the team's typical "set $10M aside as buffer" philosophy our standard assumptions imply Jed has ~$45M to play with 

- Top of the rotation arms in FA have been mentioned repeatedly.  Dylan Cease, who will make north of $25M per year, and Michael King, who will make about $20M, have been singled out frequently

- The trade route, which would be significantly cheaper payroll wise, has not had nearly as much smoke.  Notably even after Shota accepted his offer the focus still seems to be addressing SP through a top of market FA.  Honestly it is weirdly quiet all around on the trade front given the chips Jed has in his pocket

- The team is being heavily connected to the upper middle class of closers.  Guys who are going to make $10-12M a year.  Devin Williams, who will likely get north of $15M, is being treated as unlikely but not being ruled out

- The team needs a volume of relievers.  I believe Mooney used the term "bulk shopping."  Even if all of these guys are modest signings, the number of them means this is probably another $10-15M in aggregate

- Things have been quieter on the bat front.  There have been a few specific names mentioned here or there but generally it's just "right handed bat".  It hasn't been rumored yet, but the team also clearly needs a backup middle infielder unless said bat provides coverage there.  This is also probably about $10M unless you really skimp.  Like for instance Turner + Berti last year were modest signings and combined for $8M

- There have been occasional ties to bigger bats.  Most notably IMO Passan last week tied us to Bregman again.  So there are seemingly scenarios where the team is willing to throw $$$ at a bat.  Makes you wonder if a more substantial bat is on the table in the event they get their big SP via trade?

So all told even on the lowest end that's $50M the team seems committed to spend from here, probably north if $60M.  Now of course trade(s) could be used to cover that $$ gap with prospect currency, that'sprobably the most likely outcome.  And of course the team could just cut corners somewhere.  But from the vibes and smoke out there right now free agency seems like the focus and to get all of the shopping they seem committed to done it makes you wonder if payroll is going to spike a bit to be $260Mish for a year

58 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Obviously the best approach is to assume the worst, but if you focus just on what we're hearing this winter and don't anchor too hard on our priors coming into the offseason it does make you wonder if there's more money to play with than we've been accounting for.  Consider:

- The team is ~$55M under the luxury tax right now, and using the team's typical "set $10M aside as buffer" philosophy our standard assumptions imply Jed has ~$45M to play with 

- Top of the rotation arms in FA have been mentioned repeatedly.  Dylan Cease, who will make north of $25M per year, and Michael King, who will make about $20M, have been singled out frequently

- The trade route, which would be significantly cheaper payroll wise, has not had nearly as much smoke.  Notably even after Shota accepted his offer the focus still seems to be addressing SP through a top of market FA.  Honestly it is weirdly quiet all around on the trade front given the chips Jed has in his pocket

- The team is being heavily connected to the upper middle class of closers.  Guys who are going to make $10-12M a year.  Devin Williams, who will likely get north of $15M, is being treated as unlikely but not being ruled out

- The team needs a volume of relievers.  I believe Mooney used the term "bulk shopping."  Even if all of these guys are modest signings, the number of them means this is probably another $10-15M in aggregate

- Things have been quieter on the bat front.  There have been a few specific names mentioned here or there but generally it's just "right handed bat".  It hasn't been rumored yet, but the team also clearly needs a backup middle infielder unless said bat provides coverage there.  This is also probably about $10M unless you really skimp.  Like for instance Turner + Berti last year were modest signings and combined for $8M

- There have been occasional ties to bigger bats.  Most notably IMO Passan last week tied us to Bregman again.  So there are seemingly scenarios where the team is willing to throw $$$ at a bat.  Makes you wonder if a more substantial bat is on the table in the event they get their big SP via trade?

So all told even on the lowest end that's $50M the team seems committed to spend from here, probably north if $60M.  Now of course trade(s) could be used to cover that $$ gap with prospect currency, that'sprobably the most likely outcome.  And of course the team could just cut corners somewhere.  But from the vibes and smoke out there right now free agency seems like the focus and to get all of the shopping they seem committed to done it makes you wonder if payroll is going to spike a bit to be $260Mish for a year

It all sounds good and reasonable, but I doubt it. I would have to see it before believing they will actually go  over the LT line. What you are saying would be awesome. But they have disappointed us too often to think they won’t again, this year. 

22 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

It all sounds good and reasonable, but I doubt it. I would have to see it before believing they will actually go  over the LT line. What you are saying would be awesome. But they have disappointed us too often to think they won’t again, this year. 

They went over in '16, '19, '20 and '24.

Going over wouldn't have made a difference in the other years. 

I don't see what about this pattern makes people think there's no way they go over the tax this year. 

1 minute ago, Bull said:

They went over in '16, '19, '20 and '24.

Going over wouldn't have made a difference in the other years. 

I don't see what about this pattern makes people think there's no way they go over the tax this year. 

I think it's unlikely they go over significantly if what's taking them over is long-term commitments.

They seem to think keeping payroll flexible will be important with the lockout looming.

1 hour ago, Rob said:

I think it's unlikely they go over significantly if what's taking them over is long-term commitments.

They seem to think keeping payroll flexible will be important with the lockout looming.

The thing is that there are essentially zero long term commitments at this point.  Another 4 years of Dansby and then everyone else is gone after 2026 so there's a natural reset even if the structure of the CBA remains similar to what's in place now.  They're only locked into $31.5 million for 2027 right now, so the pattern of not going over 2 years in a row would be easy to stick to even with a couple big long term deals because Shota, Taillon, Boyd, Happ, Suzuki, and Nico are all off the books after 2026.

1 hour ago, Bull said:

They went over in '16, '19, '20 and '24.

Going over wouldn't have made a difference in the other years. 

I don't see what about this pattern makes people think there's no way they go over the tax this year. 

To be fair ‘24 was an accounting error if we are being honest. As for ‘19 and ‘20 they went over becsuse they were having to pay their arbitration guys a lot of money. They did not just spend in free agents and go over. Again, I hope they do. And it does make sense to go over. But until they do go over without worrying about the first line of the LT and the or penalties that come with it, I won’t believe they will do it. 

On 11/24/2025 at 10:54 AM, Bertz said:

Obviously the best approach is to assume the worst, but if you focus just on what we're hearing this winter and don't anchor too hard on our priors coming into the offseason it does make you wonder if there's more money to play with than we've been accounting for.  Consider:

- The team is ~$55M under the luxury tax right now, and using the team's typical "set $10M aside as buffer" philosophy our standard assumptions imply Jed has ~$45M to play with 

- Top of the rotation arms in FA have been mentioned repeatedly.  Dylan Cease, who will make north of $25M per year, and Michael King, who will make about $20M, have been singled out frequently

- The trade route, which would be significantly cheaper payroll wise, has not had nearly as much smoke.  Notably even after Shota accepted his offer the focus still seems to be addressing SP through a top of market FA.  Honestly it is weirdly quiet all around on the trade front given the chips Jed has in his pocket

- The team is being heavily connected to the upper middle class of closers.  Guys who are going to make $10-12M a year.  Devin Williams, who will likely get north of $15M, is being treated as unlikely but not being ruled out

- The team needs a volume of relievers.  I believe Mooney used the term "bulk shopping."  Even if all of these guys are modest signings, the number of them means this is probably another $10-15M in aggregate

- Things have been quieter on the bat front.  There have been a few specific names mentioned here or there but generally it's just "right handed bat".  It hasn't been rumored yet, but the team also clearly needs a backup middle infielder unless said bat provides coverage there.  This is also probably about $10M unless you really skimp.  Like for instance Turner + Berti last year were modest signings and combined for $8M

- There have been occasional ties to bigger bats.  Most notably IMO Passan last week tied us to Bregman again.  So there are seemingly scenarios where the team is willing to throw $$$ at a bat.  Makes you wonder if a more substantial bat is on the table in the event they get their big SP via trade?

So all told even on the lowest end that's $50M the team seems committed to spend from here, probably north if $60M.  Now of course trade(s) could be used to cover that $$ gap with prospect currency, that'sprobably the most likely outcome.  And of course the team could just cut corners somewhere.  But from the vibes and smoke out there right now free agency seems like the focus and to get all of the shopping they seem committed to done it makes you wonder if payroll is going to spike a bit to be $260Mish for a year

Another thing on this front that made me raise an eyebrow.  The Cubs don't get mentioned a single time in this article from Passan

Jed has had plenty of instances of being super stealthy on the trade front, but man all the smoke is that he's planning to do the heavy lifting via FA this winter.

18 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Another thing on this front that made me raise an eyebrow.  The Cubs don't get mentioned a single time in this article from Passan

 

Jed has had plenty of instances of being super stealthy on the trade front, but man all the smoke is that he's planning to do the heavy lifting via FA this winter.

Let’s just hope there is some heavy lifting. 

12 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Another thing on this front that made me raise an eyebrow.  The Cubs don't get mentioned a single time in this article from Passan

 

Jed has had plenty of instances of being super stealthy on the trade front, but man all the smoke is that he's planning to do the heavy lifting via FA this winter.

Mooney's latest article seems to be pointing at Mo & Caissie being the Tucker replacement (Not sure if it's an opinion piece or what he's hearing). If that's the case, we're down to what, Valdez/Suarez/King as exciting FA possibilities along with Imai/Munetaka. Throw in a few ok pen arms and there's not a lot of room for Jed to miss on the remaining guys if he's doing the heavy lifting via FA. 

19 minutes ago, KCCub said:

Mooney's latest article seems to be pointing at Mo & Caissie being the Tucker replacement (Not sure if it's an opinion piece or what he's hearing). If that's the case, we're down to what, Valdez/Suarez/King as exciting FA possibilities along with Imai/Munetaka. Throw in a few ok pen arms and there's not a lot of room for Jed to miss on the remaining guys if he's doing the heavy lifting via FA. 

Really like to see one of Keller, Fairbanks or Finnagan, one of Imai, King or Suarez and then at the very least a guy like Andujar who can play some third and first base. Actually someone brought up Bohm some time ago. If he can be traded for without giving much us (he shouldn’t cost much) he would be a good fit for the bench/DH/1B/3B option. I think there is enough money for this sort of thing. If not, then trade for Cabrera or Ryan so you get that pitcher cheaper so that you could make other moves. Maybe if the Cubs did trade with the Phillies they could add a pen arm like Tanner Banks and give up a prospect to get him with Bohm. 

Farfetched attempt at staying on topic: Um, you know who would be cool for Shota to pitch to in the event that we needed an emergency third catcher? Willson Contreras!

Anyways, reports are out that he's willing to waive his NTC. Two years, $35m left on his deal. .344 wOBA, .358 xwOBA, 124 wRC, 142 wRC against LHP, makes him the perfect Busch platoon/DH and frees up the AAA hitters to become trade bait as we watch the market sign all the free agent pitchers. Bring him home. 

(Separately, I vaguely understand the business model case against megathreads but feel like it definitely drives down overall activity here.)

5 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

(Separately, I vaguely understand the business model case against megathreads but feel like it definitely drives down overall activity here.)

Absolutely. I'm much more likely to jump in during work breaks and chat some in a mega thread over options/hopes/theories/etc. 

14 minutes ago, KCCub said:

Mooney's latest article seems to be pointing at Mo & Caissie being the Tucker replacement (Not sure if it's an opinion piece or what he's hearing). If that's the case, we're down to what, Valdez/Suarez/King as exciting FA possibilities along with Imai/Munetaka. Throw in a few ok pen arms and there's not a lot of room for Jed to miss on the remaining guys if he's doing the heavy lifting via FA. 

Yeah and the idea of planning to give both Caissie and Mo siginficant runway also lends itself away from the likelihood of a trade.  

The timing on Imai makes makes me nervous on the SP front.  Because I could see a situation where he's now plan A and King is plan B.  But if Imai's not signing until closer to end of month and all the domestic guys are expected to start coming off the board quickly over the next week and a haIf coinciding with the Winter Meetings that feels like a dangerous game of musical chairs.

6 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Yeah and the idea of planning to give both Caissie and Mo siginficant runway also lends itself away from the likelihood of a trade.  

The timing on Imai makes makes me nervous on the SP front.  Because I could see a situation where he's now plan A and King is plan B.  But if Imai's not signing until closer to end of month and all the domestic guys are expected to start coming off the board quickly over the next week and a haIf coinciding with the Winter Meetings that feels like a dangerous game of musical chairs.

There was at least a report recently that made it seem Imai was going to be taking visits this week and then signing at the Meetings. So if that's true, it would at least, hopefully, give the Cubs a second chance at biting the free agent apple if he comes off quicker.