Cubs Decline Option, Shota Imanaga Is Now A Free Agent

Wow. I hope they are planning on a serious* run at Cease. 

*Not their usual "we were in the ballpark of what he signed for" run. 

If they make the QO, then what happens?  Would it net them another pick if he rejects it?  And would he reject it?

9 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

If they make the QO, then what happens?  Would it net them another pick if he rejects it?  And would he reject it?

I'm assuming you mean another pick on top of Tucker?  I believe they get a comp pick for any rejected QO FA that signs elsewhere.

Also, I was thinking he'd pick it up, but also wondering if he might prefer to sign a multi-year deal somewhere with the looming work stoppage that may ultimately suppress salaries.  Better to get locked in now right?

1 minute ago, UMFan83 said:

I'm assuming you mean another pick on top of Tucker?  I believe they get a comp pick for any rejected QO FA that signs elsewhere.

Also, I was thinking he'd pick it up, but also wondering if he might prefer to sign a multi-year deal somewhere with the looming work stoppage that may ultimately suppress salaries.  Better to get locked in now right?

I think he would accept a QO. Which is why I don’t see the Cubs offering one. 

18 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Better to get locked in now right?

Exactly- That's will be the theme of this offseason. Players looking for years and front offices looking the other way. 

18 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I think he would accept a QO. Which is why I don’t see the Cubs offering one. 

Just the opposite. 

My gut says this means the Cubs have their eyes on a high-tier starting pitcher in free agency.

Either that, or the Ricketts is pulling a Jerry Richardson and clearing his books post-2026 and the hell with what it does to the team. But hopefully the free agency thing.

10 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Just the opposite. 

So you think the Cubs will give him a QO and he will decline? Is that your take? 

2 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

So you think the Cubs will give him a QO and he will decline? Is that your take? 

I don't have a clue what the Cubs are planning. If they don't make the offer, they likely think he will accept, or they are pooling their dollars to make a run at one of the top guys in FA. 

If they do make the offer, they may be signalling they are going to the mattresses for the lockout or they are playing a dangerous game of will he or won't he. 

Shota will decline the QO, because he stands to make a lot more in a multi-year deal. I'm not sure what the market will bear for someone like him, though. 

It should be a very interesting, if not exciting, offseason all across the league. The leage trends will tell us what the owners are thinking. 

I don't keep a close eye on things but I don't see if I understand the logic here - are they just pretty down on what Shota might bring to the table over the next 3 years due to his peripherals? Is it related to the lockout? I would think the Cubs are starved for quality pitching going into the short and medium term so I would think keeping a guy who's been pretty strong at roughly 20 mil a year for 3 years would make sense. 

I have a hard time seeing Shota and his agents thinking he will be more valuable next off season. I think they would decline a QO

24 minutes ago, BigSlick said:

I don't keep a close eye on things but I don't see if I understand the logic here - are they just pretty down on what Shota might bring to the table over the next 3 years due to his peripherals? Is it related to the lockout? I would think the Cubs are starved for quality pitching going into the short and medium term so I would think keeping a guy who's been pretty strong at roughly 20 mil a year for 3 years would make sense. 

Bertz pointed it out the other day, but Shota has performed worst than pitchers who got contracts similar to the years and $$ remaining on his option. 

The Cubs now have $80m to spend to just get back to the $206m payroll they finished with in 2025. They also attempted to spend more than that with going after Bregman and Scott, suggesting that wasn't their top line. If they add $20m to that, the Cubs could spend $100m this offseason. But they also don't have a lot of clear cut spots that need upgraded. This opens a clear spot at SP to spend, and lots of money. I like Shota but he's probably a good mid-rotation arm. There are plenty of upper end arms the Cubs could replace him with. 

I know many people have created a narrative that the Cubs won't spend because of the lockout, but I just don't think that's going to be the case. I think the Cubs have given themselves an opportunity to get better with this.

37 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Bertz pointed it out the other day, but Shota has performed worst than pitchers who got contracts similar to the years and $$ remaining on his option. 

The Cubs now have $80m to spend to just get back to the $206m payroll they finished with in 2025. They also attempted to spend more than that with going after Bregman and Scott, suggesting that wasn't their top line. If they add $20m to that, the Cubs could spend $100m this offseason. But they also don't have a lot of clear cut spots that need upgraded. This opens a clear spot at SP to spend, and lots of money. I like Shota but he's probably a good mid-rotation arm. There are plenty of upper end arms the Cubs could replace him with. 

I know many people have created a narrative that the Cubs won't spend because of the lockout, but I just don't think that's going to be the case. I think the Cubs have given themselves an opportunity to get better with this.

One 1 or 2 year deals or longer ones with opt outs, I 100% do not see them throwing a 5+ year deal without opt outs prior to the lock out

I'm surprised. Guess they had no confidence there was any adjustments they could make to get him back to 2024 Shota.

Imanaga seems like a really cool dude and guys in the clubhouse seem to love him . However the reality is that he perform like a bottom of the rotation pitcher in 25 .

Yes he had a really good run after the injury , but you have to look at his season entirely IMO.   I am perfectly fine moving forward without him , if that turns out to be the case . 
 

I think this opens more possibilities with the rotation . In my perfect scenario , a FA signing and a trade .  It’s time to get more strikeouts and stuff into this staff .

25 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

One 1 or 2 year deals or longer ones with opt outs, I 100% do not see them throwing a 5+ year deal without opt outs prior to the lock out

I'll say this: the Cubs have kind of created this situation with their own actions, but outside of fans who have created this, there isn't anything to really substantiate this type of thinking. 

I understand that the reason people are jumping to this is because they think the Cubs are looking to stay under a potential cap, but the Cubs could spend $100m this offseason on new contracts for just the 2026 season (and beyond) and with their expiring deals after 2026, have $85m dropping right back off. I cannot imagine a world in which a salary cap is substantially below the current first line of the LT and even if it was set at $200m, the Cubs would be way under any 2026 cap still.

I'm not even very sure they'll get a cap. Frankly, I think the 2027-cap-boogeyman is more of a red herring to get other concessions to the owners anyways. 

Now, I'm not saying I expect the Cubs to go Dodgers-like and spend like drunken sailors, but I think there's a very good chance they sign at least one contract in the Dansby Swanson range (think 6 or 7 years and under $200m). Not only will they have a compensation picking coming their way in the way of Kyle Tucker, the aging curve on pitchers right now is much better than hitters. Six pitchers 35+ posted 3+ win seasons compared to just two hitters, as an example. I don't think they will limit themselves to non-QO players, and with their need specifically being pitching, I think there's enough data to suggest them jumping in that pool. 

Boil it all down, whether it's Imai, Cease, or whatever, I do think the Cubs will very much be in play for one of those guys on a traditional, no opt out heavy contract. Will they get one over the line? Well that's the rub. But I don't think the Cubs will enter the offseason excluding that kind of a deal because of a potential lockout. I think a good majority of that are fans justifying keeping their expectations low to not be disappointed, but as stated, the Cubs have created that feeling around themselves on their own, as well, so I don't blame anyone for feeling that way. 

This was inevitable.  Shota was a big beneficiary of the wind conditions at Wrigley the last 2 years plus the Cubs excellent defense. Not sure I'd even want him back on a QO.  Acquire someone better.

I think Framber Vakdez is the best SP on the market. 

36 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I'll say this: the Cubs have kind of created this situation with their own actions, but outside of fans who have created this, there isn't anything to really substantiate this type of thinking. 

I understand that the reason people are jumping to this is because they think the Cubs are looking to stay under a potential cap, but the Cubs could spend $100m this offseason on new contracts for just the 2026 season (and beyond) and with their expiring deals after 2026, have $85m dropping right back off. I cannot imagine a world in which a salary cap is substantially below the current first line of the LT and even if it was set at $200m, the Cubs would be way under any 2026 cap still.

I'm not even very sure they'll get a cap. Frankly, I think the 2027-cap-boogeyman is more of a red herring to get other concessions to the owners anyways. 

 

Let me start of by saying I agree with your entire post. Well done. I am only speaking to this part of it now. This is what I have been saying all along. I don’t see a scenerio where any agreement will hurt the Cubs going forward. Even if they went over the first LT line(which they seldom do) I don’t see any consequences they can’t work around after the lockout, even if they signed 2 guys to 4+ year deals. Even if one of them was a mega deal. I whole heartedly agree the 2027 lock out/salary cap is being used as a boogeyman by the Cubs. 

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

Bertz pointed it out the other day, but Shota has performed worst than pitchers who got contracts similar to the years and $$ remaining on his option. 

The Cubs now have $80m to spend to just get back to the $206m payroll they finished with in 2025. They also attempted to spend more than that with going after Bregman and Scott, suggesting that wasn't their top line. If they add $20m to that, the Cubs could spend $100m this offseason. But they also don't have a lot of clear cut spots that need upgraded. This opens a clear spot at SP to spend, and lots of money. I like Shota but he's probably a good mid-rotation arm. There are plenty of upper end arms the Cubs could replace him with. 

I know many people have created a narrative that the Cubs won't spend because of the lockout, but I just don't think that's going to be the case. I think the Cubs have given themselves an opportunity to get better with this.

You should change your name to Charlie Brown. 

I think hes gonna get nothing but 1+1 offers to be honest. Hes too old and limited. I could still see the Cubs being signing him later as well. He just isn't worth 3/60.

With Shota, the main concern is he give up a lot of fly balls. He’d be great for Detroit or Seattle. 

Hate it. Maybe he isn't worth the total value of the deal but he's still pretty solid and our rotation is patchwork at best already. Horton, Taillon, Boyd and then all question marks. Will Brown take a step forward? Will Wicks figure it out? Are Steele and Assad healthy?

4 minutes ago, Post Count Padder said:

Hate it. Maybe he isn't worth the total value of the deal but he's still pretty solid and our rotation is patchwork at best already. Horton, Taillon, Boyd and then all question marks. Will Brown take a step forward? Will Wicks figure it out? Are Steele and Assad healthy?

The Cubs have $80m+ to spend next year and not a ton of obvious spots to spend it in. It's pretty likely that the Cubs will look to upgrade over Shota through adding a SP, not by just inserting Wicks or Brown.

4 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

The Cubs have $80m+ to spend next year and not a ton of obvious spots to spend it in. It's pretty likely that the Cubs will look to upgrade over Shota through adding a SP, not by just inserting Wicks or Brown.

Past offseasons, Tucker trade aside, have not given me a lot of hope. I really think Ricketts hamstrings Hoyer/ they don't prioritize assets well.

I still think we should all keep in mind that the likely outcome here is still Shota sticks around on the qualifying offer.