UBlink
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Everything posted by UBlink
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As long as that horse isn't moving, I might as well chime in that a distinction can and should be made between "not getting into a bidding war" and "not interested".
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[quote="BalsaWoodKeyBoard That's why I am going to Vienna. Booya. Sounds like fun - check out Plutzer Brau in the Spittelberg quarter. Not as much fun as sitting outside in summer, but beats sitting at home.
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I'll second that. Even 70% of the MVP Juan Gone would be awesome - and his former teammate Sierra showed it can be done.
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Here's what the poster wrote: Wrong. The average strikout requires far more pitches than the average ground out. With no one on base, it is far better to have a 10 pitch strikeout than a 1 pitch groundout. [emphasis added] He was not comparing strikeouts to groundouts with the same number of pitches. He was noting that the average strikeout makes the pitcher work harder than the average groundout. On that criteria alone, the strikeout is to be preferred to the groundout. There may be other criteria favoring the groundout (like advancing the runner). There are others favoring the strikeout (reducing the likelihood of a double play). The net effect would have to be determined empirically.
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Your logic is off. You have a 1 in 200 million chance of that "high reward" buying a lottery ticket. It's significantly less when talking about guys like Dempster, Williamson, etc The logic is fine, just the probability factor used in the logic is different. Unless you have inside information (you know more about the pitcher's chance of successful recovery than the market), the difference between market value for a recovering player to what he would be worth fully healthy will be the market's assessment of the probability of recovery. A lottery ticket is a bad investment because the price exceeds the expected value. If you are saying the baseball FA market is excessively risk averse, so that the expected value of a recovering pitcher is greater than the market price, then you've got a strategy for "beating the market." This is what the second paragraph of the original post was trying to say.
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I don't understand this whole "low risk, high reward" line of reasoning. By that concept, buying a lottery ticket is low risk, high reward. What it really works out to is low upfront outlay, low probability of high reward. Now if the FA market values these players lower than their expected value because of the low probability of success, a strategy of building a diversified portfolio of risky, project arms could make sense - if you sign 4 of these types to a $1 million contract, you might have a good probability that at least one would succeed and exceed the performance of a low risk $4 million player.
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The bolded part of the quote is the best summary of this whole issue. Answer 2 questions - 1) From all we can tell, is the player eventually a major league player? If yes, then ask question 2, would his odds of making the transition be increased by additional minor league play? If no, then you have to make a commitment to getting him through the transition period, with realistic expectations of the associated difficulties. Even if the transition struggles produce sub-Neifi results, it's an investment worth making. The transition period needs to be thought of in investment terms - unavoidable short term pain for a possibility (there's no guarantees) of long term gain.
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Sounds like he might have gotten benefit out of attending college. I remember when he was in high school he was the 11th overall pick even though he had clearly indicated he was going to attend the University of Texas. Everyone thought he was crazy for turning down a $230,000 signing bonus.
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Somehow I usually manage to avoid all three.
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That's my excuse for my performance in the Free Agent signing contest.
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12/22 Cedeno (SS) 2-4, triple, RBI, R, BB Blanco © 0-1 Blanco came in in the 7th Macias (LF) 1-5, RBI, R
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I think the Rangers would give Teixeira +, but what would the Cubs do with Teixeira? How many great bat, great fielding first basemen does a team need? And who else do the Rangers have that the Cubs would want?
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As one of the explanations for managements displeasure with Walker a point was made that some of the pitching staff had complained about the quality of the Cubs' defense. Could that possibly be a source of some of Prior's alleged discontent? And if so, wouldn't it be ironic if the infield were improved by trading Prior away?
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How did they miss out on Julio Franco? Maybe they can get Rickey Henderson to come out of retirement.
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Say we go after Young for 2nd to reduce his defensive liabilities. Prior + Walker for Young + Mench or Wilkerson + Pitching prospect
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The IF's down there can't be all that great. I wouldn't put a ton of stock into it. Also, is Ronny playing 2B, SS, or a bit of both? Double digits would be a slight exaggeration after 1 more tonight he's at 9 - with a batting line of .360/.399/.504 Cedeno stats link BTW Ronny was 3-4, double, 2 RBI, K tonight (12/21). And he has played SS exclusively.
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That's one of the most bizarre lines I've ever seen. Either he makes them look stupid for bunting him twice, or they are stupid for bunting him twice after he hits a HR. Actually the order was bunt, HR, BB, bunt. But, yeah, that's a pretty bizarre line. If you want to test your beisbol Spanish, here's a link: Link
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12/20 Cedeno (SS) 1-1, HR, 2 sac bunts, BB, 2RBI, R, error
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Did Levine mention Sosa?
UBlink replied to Ding Dong Johnson's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Was that an intentional double entendre? -
Would you uproot your pregnant wife and move her 900 miles away from home when you're already a very rich man? I seem to remember quitting my job, uprooting my pregnant wife and 3 year old son to move 1,000 miles away just to go to graduate school - and we're still married! The point is that we were thinking long-term, and if Kerry was offered a contract extension to waive his NTC, it might be worth careful consideration.
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One additional note - Pinto has made 5 appearances in Venezuela and Rotoworld conveniently left one out. On Dec. 11 he pitched 6 shutout innings with 2 hits, 6K, 2BB. Pinto Venezuela stats link
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12/18 Tigres win 13-4 Cedeno (SS) 2-4, 2R, RBI, double, error Caribes lose to Leones 5-4 Greenberg DNP, Pinto (remember him), 4.2 IP, 7H, 1ER, 3R, 3K, 1BB Macias 2-5, double, R, RBI; Blanco 1-5, double, BB
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You may want to bookmark this link to keep up with Jose Macias, the offensive dynamo. Assuming I did the math right to calculate OBP, he's at .395/.435/.535 avg/obp/slg with 3 walks in 46 PA's. Macias Winter Ball Stats Here's a link for Ronny Cedeno Winter Ball Stats
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12/16 Caribes over Tigres 4-3 Cedeno (SS) 0-3, RBI, K, BB Greenberg DNP Leones win 5-0 Blanco © 0-4, K Macias (LF) 2-3, RBI, BB
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12/15 - not much tonight Tigres lose 9-4, Cedeno came in to pich hit in the 7th and hit into a double play Caribes lose 8-7, Greenberg DNP Leones were off