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Hairyducked Idiot

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Everything posted by Hairyducked Idiot

  1. Hairyducked Idiot
    never mind. sell everything.
  2. Hairyducked Idiot
    That's a very .... aggressive ... rating of Horton.
  3. Hairyducked Idiot
    Anyone outside of PCA is fine. This is an elite major league pitcher with 3.5 years of control left. If you aren't willing to give up most prospects for that, then you aren't properly discounting the prospects' value against the probability of failure.
  4. Hairyducked Idiot
    Bednar is an elite major league reliever with more than half his pre-FA years of control left.
  5. Hairyducked Idiot
    That's actually perfect, because then we can trade those guys for *more* prospects. The last thing you want is prospects who start contributing when the team is good. Then you might have to actually use them and risk your farm system ranking.
  6. Hairyducked Idiot
    They might win the World Series this year. No actual analysis can come from zeroing out that non-zero probability. Is it likely? No. But it's also extremely unlikely that the specific prospects we acquire at the deadline would be the difference between winning one and not winning one in the future.
  7. Hairyducked Idiot
    This team will never lose again
  8. Hairyducked Idiot
    Cognitive dissonance and confirmation bias.
  9. Hairyducked Idiot
    He's a pitcher so there's a non-zero chance that he suddenly Jake Arrietas at any age. But right now, he sucks.
  10. Hairyducked Idiot
    Cognitive dissonance. Sorry I told you that a guy with a 5+ ERA in AAA sucks.
  11. Hairyducked Idiot
    Changing "controllable asset" to "perennial 4-win player" changes the hypothetical substantially. Averaging 4 wins per season from 2017-2022 made you one of the top 15 batters in baseball.
  12. Hairyducked Idiot
    College football and baseball are not comparable in terms of how often worse teams win.
  13. Hairyducked Idiot
    Wesneski and Brown suck.
  14. Hairyducked Idiot
    No one's offering you that for rentals.
  15. Hairyducked Idiot
    IF those three trades end up being the difference between making the playoffs and missing them, two young controllable assets isn't actually enough value to make up for that. Playoff spots are simply that valuable.
  16. Hairyducked Idiot
    I think people underestimate just how high the leverage gets in terms of potential championships when you know for a fact you're in a tight playoff race. Baseball results have generic values like "1 win" or "1 run" or even "1 strike" or whatever, but those are just averages. Twenty wins after you're eliminated have zero value in terms of winning championships. But there was a night in early November 2016 where a single out was literally the difference between 1 championship and 0, the highest leverage you can possibly imagine. When you know for a fact that you are not easily making the playoffs or easily missing them, then marginal wins become *really* valuable. The leverage goes up a ton. The Cubs are in that position right now. Trying to throw that away with a "well they aren't really that good, they'll just lose in the playoffs" isn't logic, it's handwaving.
  17. Hairyducked Idiot
    Yes. A 30% chance at the playoffs is 100% worth losing Stroman for nothing. A 30% chance of the playoffs is a ~3% chance of winning the World Series. You can't just write that off as a rounding error. Seasons are finite and *that's* what you can't afford to lose for nothing. Being top-heavy in the rotation is a good thing. There's a third facet to the game besides batting and pitching that the Cubs have heavily prioritized and goes a long way to explaining the xFIP gap. You can't do all that work on trying to discredit them with underlying stats and completely ignore the sequencing issues that plagued them early in the season that put them in the hole they had to climb out of. Honestly, I don't see the THEY HAVE TO NAIL THIS DEADLINE pressure at all. If they are a good organization consistently producing talent, then adding a couple more prospects through trades or not is not going to make or break them.
  18. Hairyducked Idiot
    I'd like to hear the cold-hearted, logical argument. Because I'm pretty sure it's actually just a prospect fetishizing argument disguising itself as logic.
  19. Hairyducked Idiot
    I'd be fine with standing pat or tepid buying. Not everything has to be a stock market simulator. Sometimes you're just a baseball team that employs baseball players to try to win baseball games.
  20. Hairyducked Idiot
    I don't even want running backs to get designed runs.
  21. Hairyducked Idiot
    Lol cards get rekt
  22. Hairyducked Idiot
    You're always unlikely to win the world series. 2016 feels like destiny in hindsight but in reality we were incredibly close to getting nothing out of that tank and spank generation. I am not particularly down with the horror of letting people to "FOR NOTHING?!". There was always a time limit on your control of the player, you never had that future value to begin with. If all you're going to get is a couple of long shot prospects that are just going to kick some other long shot prospects out of roster spots, just have some organizational self respect and play baseball.
  23. Hairyducked Idiot
    There's this common kind of analysis that always bugs me and it's really prevalent among tanking sports fandoms. It goes something like this. "Take the value of a scenario i don't prefer, which is tiny, and call it zero. Now take the value of a scenario I do prefer, which is also tiny, but call it something. Something is obviously better than nothing, therefore it is obvious we must do the scenario I prefer." Are the Cubs winning the world series this season? Probably not. Are any prospects we pick up this deadline going to be the difference between winning and not winning one in the future? Probably not.
  24. Hairyducked Idiot
    The way this thread managed to cling to relevance so long has been fun.
  25. Hairyducked Idiot
    If they don't place value on being in the playoffs, I don't even see the point of running a baseball team tbh.
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