Hairyducked Idiot

Dred Scott is no longer the law, sir. If he wasn't under their control then he would be a free agent and wouldn't need permission from the Sox to interview. My point stands, if the Sox allowed Theo to interview under the premise that they would be compensated then why should this come as a surprise to anyone? It's not a surprise to anyone. The Cubs offering to pick up his $3.5 million conclusion bonus is compensation. What's surprising here is that the Red Sox are actually, possibly dumb enough to think that by leaking the Epstein news, they can somehow pressure Ricketts into giving up insane value. Epstein is a nice GM that I'd be excited to have. I had him listed fourth in my "awesome pile" of potential GMs. But that's also all he is: one of a pile. If the Cubs don't get him, they could do just as well picking from the large pile of saber-savvy, young, well-educated, driven executives out there. Some have more experience and track record, some don't, but personally I don't think that matters. The marginal value of Epstein, the difference between Epstein and the next-best pick, is not huge. We talked earlier in the thread about the value of prospects who are nearing the major leagues. It's pretty big, something in the low 8 figures. If the Cubs have a choice between Epstein minus a near-ready prospect and another GM from the awesome pile while keeping the near-ready prospect, then they'd be fools to take the former choice. So as far as I can see, there's no incentive for the Cubs to give the Red Sox any significant compensation. The only reason anyone can come up with why they would is the idea that Cubs fans are somehow going to pressure Ricketts into doing it because we are so orgasmic at the idea of Epstein. That's asinine, and it's a theory that could only be advanced by fools and people who are very far removed from the pulse of Cubs fans. We don't want an owner who caves in negotiations and overpays for things that he wants. Owners who insist on paying whatever it takes to get things they want saddled us with the Soriano contract. And even if we believe that the pressure to pay up for Epstein is being exerted by Cubs fans, only someone who hasn't actually been paying attention to Ricketts would think that would work. When Ricketts bought the team, the immediate pressure was to be a Mark Cuban-style owner who would ride into town and start throwing around piles of money to make the team competitive. Instead, he froze payroll and put all the extra money into the draft. The next thing everyone wanted to see him do was fire Hendry, and he waited over a year. Then, when he finally did, he didn't tell anyone for a month (and that's how I know these leaks about Epstein didn't start with the Cubs). Many Cubs fans were furious that the team didn't hire Sandberg, and he didn't care. Ricketts is not going to cave to imaginary fan pressure, even if it were to become real. So even if we ignore the absurd assertion that the Red Sox somehow benefit from threatening to throw $6.5 million into a pile and burn it, even if we put aside the damage to their reputation it does for other potential executives to see what sort of an organization the Red Sox are (one that will hold you back if they feel like it), then just looking at it from a Cubs perspective, it makes no sense to be giving anything significant in compensation. If the Red Sox are that determined to burn their pile of money, and if they were so crazy and stupid as to ask for Garza with a straight face, then I'm perfectly happy to see the Cubs move on to the next choice.

For a non-lateral move? Yes.

A transcript of the negotiations.

"Unbelievable" is coming from the Cubs point of view. They seem to be holding the line that this is a non-lateral move for Epstein and that tradition mandates the Red Sox not stand in the way. Picking up his conclusion bonus was seen as a generous gesture on their point, not an ante. Good for them. Hold the line.

What did you plan on doing that week, watch the Cardinals in the World Series?

Every nut I busted for Theo in this thread and others was actually meant for Ricketts. Good job, man.

I don't see what Vogelbach's grandfather has to do with anything.

I'm going to place some 2011 Cubs players in two baskets. Basket A contains two infielders, another position player and a pitcher. Basket B contains two infielders, another position player and a pitcher. The Cubs got a combined total of 11.0 fWAR out of Basket A. The Cubs got a combined total of 10.5 fWAR out of Basket B. Pretty similar value, right? Basket A: Basket B: Conclusion:

Okay. So now we're back to two issues. One: You vastly overestimate the difference between Epstein and the next GM. Two: You don't really understand the value of nearly-ready prospects, even if they merely turn out as good as Corey Patterson.

you said you were done in here. go hunt some ducks. This is the internet. No one who ever says they are done is actually done. Not once has a Declaration of Done ever been followed-up on. If the Red Sox actually asked for Garza, then I'm finally beginning to think we'll have to walk away. And that's fine. What a batpoop insane organization.

So now your argument is that Corey Patterson wasn't really that valuable because the expectations were higher. So if we had all really hated him or something on the way up, that would have made him more valuable to the team. Not all minor league players are created equal. A minor-league player who looks nearly ready to contribute to the MLB roster in any way is significantly more valuable than a low-A lottery ticket.

*tags out of this one* You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it not dumb.

That's pretty easy. 5 years/$18.5 million.

The fact that you think Corey Patterson was ultimately a flop shows that you are fantastically misunderstanding baseball teams and player value. Would it have been cool if Patterson hadn't hurt his knee or had developed some plate discipline or something? Sure. But the Cubs got several starting-caliber seasons out of him for a fraction of the money it would have cost to go out and get a free agent. Imagine the 2012 Cubs only had to pay Marlon Byrd and Ryan Dempster $500k each. That's what you get out of prospects who can step in to the big leagues and be adequate.

That's about where I'm coming in at, too. You still are willing to trade prospects, sometimes, because what ultimately matters is not dollars, but wins, and not all wins are created equal. When you are close to a playoff spot, it becomes worthwhile to blow a ton of marginal value (dollars, prospects, whatever) to get a few more marginal wins. But mostly, yes, near-MLB prospects are an extremely valuable asset.

A lot higher. McNutt is older than your basic draft pick, has had more success closer to the big leagues, and the signing of draft picks is artificially lowered by their inability to negotiate with multiple teams.

Okay, what do you believe the value of a well-regarded AA prospect to be? Depends on the situation. What did you believe Corey Patterson's value was? Low 8 figures. For 2003 and 2004, the Cubs got an above-average MLB CFer for a combined salary of less than $1 million. Such a player on the open market would have cost them well more than 10 times that.

Okay, what do you believe the value of a well-regarded AA prospect to be?

What do you believe to be the monetary value of a well-regarded AA prospect?

The next-best candidate+prospects, AINEC.

It's the sort of Machiavellian fantasy about negotiations that you often see sports fans delve into that has no bearing on real life. It makes no sense for either side to let this deal fall apart.

That's what I would do. Next year will be about establishing infrastructure, I don't see why Byrnes can't get the process started right away (perhap with Theo advising under the radar) for a year until Theo is free from his contract. In the meantime, every young and talented executive gets a glimpse of how the Red Sox operate, and gets to evaluate that into any future hiring decisions. All things being equal, I think you have to presume Epstein's honesty. If the Red Sox are stupid enough to burn $6.5 million in a giant pile and have Epstein be their lame duck GM for 2012, then Epstein would tell Ricketts "see you in a year" and perform to the best of his abilities without helping the Cubs under the radar.

That's the key here. It doesn't matter how much Epstein is worth compared to Jim Hendry or me or you. It matters how much Epstein is worth over Rick Hahn or Josh Byrnes or whoever. And the answer is: Not a nearly-ready prospect with any impact potential. Those things are worth quite a bit.

McNutt. The marginal value of Epstein over the other candidates is slim. As much fun as it is to mark out over Epstein, that's all it is. Silly fan fun. The important thing happened when Ricketts decided to hire an Epstein-style GM, not that he specifically got the big name.

You're right, he doesn't care about selling season tickets. He cares about doing what creates the most wins in the long-term, in his estimation. Because in the long run, that's the only thing that sells season tickets.