Hairyducked Idiot
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Everything posted by Hairyducked Idiot
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baserunning :(
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If our only worry is our bullpen going into 2013 I'll be one [expletive] happy camper. Will you?
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Assuming they want to, the biggest impediment to competing in 2013 would be the bullpen. The starting rotation is fine, and the lineup could probably get to fine pretty quickly once half our best players aren't being stashed at Iowa.
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To expound on this point, the problem isn't using a left-handed specialist infielder against Arroyo. The problem is that our left-handed specialist infielder is as bad as Blake Dewitt.
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes 4-30-12
Hairyducked Idiot replied to Outshined_One's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
And with over 1800 PA of mediocrity in professional baseball it is impossible to justify your irrational support of the guy's prospect status. But you do it anyway. I expect him to be a mediocre major leaguer, too, so I think that justifies it. -
So his bad rates are sustainable, but his good rates aren't? Yes. Some stats stabilize more quickly than others. http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/principles/sample-size/ It takes contact percentage about 100 PAs to stabilize, and K rates about 150 PAs. Given that LaHair has been monumentally bad through 70 PAs in both of those categories, it's pretty easy to project that he'll still be at least bad when he gets to those thresholds.
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That strikeout rate has me convinced he can't hit at the MLB level at all in the long run.
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes 4-30-12
Hairyducked Idiot replied to Outshined_One's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
If he could put up a .770 OPS in the Southern League at his age, I feel pretty confident he could have put up an .830 or so a level down. I guess that depends on your definition of 'crushing,' but that's about what it took for people to excited about Junior Lake, who is roughly the same age as Vitters. So your best-case scenario for Vitters is being comparable to a guy that half of the minor league universe thinks should be turned into a pitcher? That wasn't my best-case scenario for Vitters. That was just a conservative translation of what he did last season into an age-appropriate level. I never said that Vitters was a top-tier prospect. Just that I think he's being underrated by Cubs fans because of the disappointment that he's not living up to his draft slot and the fact that his numbers aren't shiny enough because of his aggressive promotion schedule. -
Minor League Discussion & Boxes 4-30-12
Hairyducked Idiot replied to Outshined_One's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
If he could put up a .770 OPS in the Southern League at his age, I feel pretty confident he could have put up an .830 or so a level down. I guess that depends on your definition of 'crushing,' but that's about what it took for people to excited about Junior Lake, who is roughly the same age as Vitters. -
35.7% strikeout rate .600 BABIP 35.7% HR/FB ratio He can't hit at the major league level, but a perfect storm of luck is making his actual production awesome. It's perfectly possible to enjoy that luck and still know that going forward it's not going to continue.
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes 4-30-12
Hairyducked Idiot replied to Outshined_One's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Why the hell would people be drooling over him? He's done nothing as a pro. Because if he were playing a level or two lower, he'd have the same long-term potential but he'd have prettier numbers for people to look at. Instead of putting up adequate numbers as one of the youngest players in the Southern League last year, he could have been crushing the FSL. -
Manager Approval Poll - May 2012
Hairyducked Idiot replied to Transmogrified Tiger's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
He seems mindful of the pitching staff, he mostly seems to be using matchup advantages correctly. He isn't prematurely benching guys with bad starts due to poor variance, and the baserunning is fun to watch. Yes. -
I hadn't really thought through how many positions we could plausibly stand pat on in 2013. I'm not saying they are all filled by great players and we couldn't find upgrades, but we could reasonably not make a change at all eight positions and at least four starters.
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What I actually said was "I have trouble seeing the Cubs outbidding..." On a combination of motivation and money. Yes, we can play the "what if they don't sign any other upgrades and pool all their money into the best available FAs" what-if game, but that never happens. Doing some very rough calculations, and assuming Soto is jettisoned, they'll have about $65 million committed next season after arbitration awards. They'll need ... well, I guess they won't need much. Okay, maybe this is more plausible than I thought.
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Okay, so what would people put the odds on the Cubs signing Hamels at? Right now?
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You don't think Garza + Marmol's $3 million plus various other arbitration raises is going to hit $15.5 million? Other teams have a lot of money to spend to.
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Sure. But I still doubt the Cubs go that route. I don't think being fairly confident taking the field against the Cubs in a "who will sign the best free agent starting pitcher in the next offseason" is all that controversial.
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In the long run, you are right. They apparently intend to massively renovate Wrigley Field to create new revenue streams and renegotiate the cable deal. But that's not going to happen in a season. I feel pretty confident saying the 2013 Cubs will not have a top-5 payroll. Marmol + various arbitration raises should eat up at least half of that.
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Barney is trying his best to drive a ball into the ground and get the DP.
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fake rally please
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Why? Because they have supermegacable deals and we don't. There's a new scale in MLB and our payroll hasn't caught up yet.
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I'm starting to get Stockholm Syndrome for this team. If we can win this game tonight and get out of the brutal stretch of schedule within a few games of .500, then I think .500 is a real goal.
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Cubs have been the better team tonight. This is a stupid sport.
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I really, really have trouble seeing the Cubs outbidding teams like the Dodgers, Rangers, Yankees, etc. for Hamels.
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.621 and rising.