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Hairyducked Idiot

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Everything posted by Hairyducked Idiot

  1. Hairyducked Idiot
    I bet they have 10 times as many Kyles, they are all just handsomer and richer and more skin cancery than me.
  2. Hairyducked Idiot
    If there's no one left to disagree with, how will I know what to think?
  3. Hairyducked Idiot
    So in 2008, who would have bet that within five years we'd have a payroll barely 1/3rd of the highest non-Yankees payroll in five years.
  4. Hairyducked Idiot
    The AAV is fine, but six years is a lot for a pitcher.
  5. Hairyducked Idiot
    6. Maples 7. Panigua 8. Vitters We're getting into that mass where almost a dozen guys could defensibly go, but give me some high-upside pitching and near-MLB ready at an excrutiatingly tough-to-fill position.
  6. Hairyducked Idiot
    I like Valbuena a lot too, but we need two backup if, and the other needs to be RH. If we're playing Cheap Platoons , I want to splurge a little on depth. Our IF depth sucks after Valbuena.
  7. Hairyducked Idiot
    Some random names I wouldn't mind seeing us go after: Ronny Cedeno as a super utility guy or replacement if Barney is traded. Andres Torres as a CF platoon partner or maybe even straight starter if DeJesus is traded.
  8. Hairyducked Idiot
    I'm not saying I expect it to happen, but if we *were* in on Michael Bourn, this sure might be what it would look like. Lots of other teams who need CFers signing different guys, us signing a RFer and seeming to have a lot of money to spend, David DeJesus trade rumor popping up.
  9. Hairyducked Idiot
    Rank Scott Baker, Scott Feldman and Brandon McCarthy. Baker/McCarthy/Feldman
  10. Hairyducked Idiot
    I'm hoping he really liked Arizona or something, because if we didn't want to go 2/$16 or higher to beat that, I'd be annoyed.
  11. Hairyducked Idiot
    Winter Meetings are over but I like having one thread for non-Cubs stuff. McCarthy to the Diamondbacks, reportedly.
  12. Hairyducked Idiot
    On straight WAR, 5-6 wins. Including leverage, 8-10.
  13. Hairyducked Idiot
    My guess is that Soriano and Marmol stay through the spring. I don't think we''ll see any MLB players traded this offseason from the Cubs. If they do, I'm guessing it'll be shipping someone out to a broke team and picking up the salary.
  14. Hairyducked Idiot
    I kind of think Campana has a little bit of value as a 5th outfielder. I definitely think you could get something of non-zero value for him. Plus you know there's going to be at least one team out there that loves his skill set too much.
  15. Hairyducked Idiot
    I briefly forgot that LF and RF are different things.
  16. Hairyducked Idiot
    DFAing Campana seems inevitable, but you're going to have to find a MLB 5th outfielder if you are serious about Jackson starting at AAA, so it doesn't really save you a spot between now and ST. Same with Clevenger, because his spot's going to go to a third catcher eventually anyway.
  17. Hairyducked Idiot
    It's a lot of home runs.
  18. Hairyducked Idiot
    Guy hits 25 home runs a decade ago and has his wrist surgically removed: UPSIDE! Guy hits 25 home runs last year: No use for him. But yeah, if he can't play 3b, never mind.
  19. Hairyducked Idiot
  20. Hairyducked Idiot
    OK, now discounted a few players for injury risk and the roster having to go beyond 25-deep. Soriano(1.5)/DeJesus(1.0)/Schierholtz(1.0) (Sappelt/Campana) (1.0) (Various backups 0) Stewart(0.0)/Castro (4.0)/Barney(2.0)/Rizzo(4.0) (Valbuena/Clevenger)(0.0) (Various backups -1.0) Castillo(1.0) (Navarro)(0.0) Garza(2.0)/Samardzija(2.5)/Baker(1.0)/Feldman(0.5)/Wood(1.0) (Various spot starters -0.5) Marmol/Fujikawa/Camp/Russell/Dolis/Belivaeu/Rondon (3.0) (Various tag-ins, -0.5) Total: 23.5 WAR Projected record: 76-86 That's probably more realistic. If you want to push toward .500, you need another starter (Wood in the swingman/6th spot could be huge, because he is useful and that spot's practically a lock for 20 starts this year), a reliably not-terrible sixth infielder, and probably a good outfielder to bump someone else out. I like our outfield depth, if only because I'll begrudgingly admit that Brett Jackson is probably no worse than replacement level and has more upside than that.
  21. Hairyducked Idiot
    Reed Johnson got $1.6 million, plus a team option with $150k buyout, from the Braves.
  22. Hairyducked Idiot
    A McCarthy signing stretches the "not projecting for injuries" caveat past the point of credulity. But I'd probably put either one at 2.0 and push Wood out of the rotation, which would put my chart at 80.5 wins, or rounded up to a .500 team. We'd basically have the pitching staff version of a mediocre Big Ten basketball team, just throwing waves and waves of indistinct, vaguely above-average guys at you with no end in sight.
  23. Hairyducked Idiot
    I think we're maybe a little better than last year, but basically, yes. There's a ton of parity in baseball that gets masked by the variance. Most teams should project between like 72 and 91 wins going into the season.
  24. Hairyducked Idiot
    It's hard, because you have to think that we just can't be that unlucky again. Sure, we self-inflicted some of it with bad roster decisions in the spring, but even still. -4 wins Pyth variance. Soto and Byrd being respectable MLB veterans who spontaneously completely lose their ability to hit. 7th in MLB in LD% but 26th in BABIP. 29th least "clutch" team in the league according to Fangraphs' WPA clutch calculation. And then when all that turned us bad, the front office (rightly) dismantled the team and (for whatever reason) did a really terrible job finding fill-ins. But it's been so long since we had a season without that kind of stuff happening (the 2011 pitching injuries) that it becomes hard to remember that sometimes teams don't have negative variance.
  25. Hairyducked Idiot
    And that 9.2 is Fangraphs WAR, which is nice for prediction but bears no resemblance to what happened on the field. bWAR says our rotation was actually roughly replacement level in total.
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