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Hairyducked Idiot

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Everything posted by Hairyducked Idiot

  1. Hairyducked Idiot
    :( If I've lost Treymon, I've lost America.
  2. Hairyducked Idiot
    I took the old Bill James "early peak" of 25-29 and pushed it ahead a little bit because we're in an era where defense is becoming highly prized, and defense tends to peak a little earlier than offense.
  3. Hairyducked Idiot
    best of all, Buster Olney viewtopic.php?f=6&t=60927&p=2817036#p2817036 Like most NSBB threads after about six months, that thread is a hilarious carnival of terrible predictions from all sides.
  4. Hairyducked Idiot
    No.
  5. Hairyducked Idiot
    You read the scouting reports on Rosario, and it feels like there's a little something there. He's apparently got legitimately mid-90s velocity, adequate offspeed stuff and throws strikes. His problem is that his fastball is very straight and he leaves it up in the zone a lot. Had problems with a quad injury last season. Only walked two batters in 30 IP between AAA and the majors last season. I kind of hope we hold on to him. He seems a little more exciting than the rest of the Iowa conga line last season.
  6. Hairyducked Idiot
    If you get rid of Clevenger and Campana, you are almost certainly going to have to replace both of them with a catcher and another backup outfielder, unless you think they are going to go with 2 catchers on the 40-man or have Brett Jackson on the MLB roster.
  7. Hairyducked Idiot
    I think everyone acknowledges that they might be related. I think many times, people want to overlook the possibility that they aren't. It's Ian Stewart all over again: He comes into 2011 swearing he's healthy, hits brutally, then says that in late July he felt something in his wrist during batting practice. Why are we so sure that the cliff-dive in his ability to hit came because of the injury? Sometimes, guys who were hitting AA at 22 stop hitting in AAA and the majors at 23 and 24. The fact that he was injured doesn't mean we can just assume the train would have kept rolling along for those seasons. With Brown, besides that, there's the even larger possibility that the injuries have permanently effected his athletic ability. When you start talking about wrist, knee and hamstring issues for a guy whose calling card is his athleticism and potential power, then you have to wonder what the long-term effects are going to be. So in summary, you have a 25-year-old who was on a good path at 22, we have no idea what his 23 and 24 would have been like, and he has health question marks for 25. Why am I supposed to want to give a guy like that a big-league opportunity, let alone give up a tradeable asset to do it?
  8. Hairyducked Idiot
    Seems like people keep hoping to sneak him through waivers so they can hold on to him in the minors. Our 40-man situation is all kinds of weird.
  9. Hairyducked Idiot
    But getting back to the main point, since we don't know if Brown is going to be a sustained MLBer, it's a bit presumptuous to cram him onto that curve. His best season to date came at 22, and there's a very good chance that stays his best season.
  10. Hairyducked Idiot
    When you look at the sample of all professional players and not just sustained MLBers, it's more like 20. But that's a huge tangent. http://forums.prosportsdaily.com/showthread.php?t=787367&page=5 About time they started listening to me.
  11. Hairyducked Idiot
    If you're talking in those terms, then that's very possible. What we think of as "prime" features a selection bias for guys who have prolonged MLB careers. For the population of all professional players, the plateau age is much earlier.
  12. Hairyducked Idiot
    Possibly, but that isn't a good thing. Recent injuries and recent bad performance, even if related, say bad things about a player's projection going forward.
  13. Hairyducked Idiot
    No. But 25 is already in the middle of prime. Middle? That's still the start is it not, and just at the start. I'm a "24-27" prime guy, so if you want to call it "beginning of the middle" or "middle of the beginning" or whatever. It doesn't matter.
  14. Hairyducked Idiot
    No. But 25 is already in the middle of prime. I'm not going to give him a lot of projection credit beyond what he did last year in his age-24 prime season. All three seasons ago or more. There's a point where that stops being the most relevant data when considering his projections. How many MCL/PCL tears do you need before you start to worry about the long-term impact on a guy's legs? I'm pretty much tired of trying to find undervalued commodities this way. Hurt? Fine. Previously good but recently bad? Fine. But both? That's just a sucker's bet.
  15. Hairyducked Idiot
    393 of those PAs came at 22, so it's not quite the same thing. But regardless, survivor's bias. A lot of other players came up, sucked for a little, and then continued to suck.
  16. Hairyducked Idiot
    A) I didn't just reference his MLB PAs. He didn't hit in AAA, either. B) "Just" 25? C) He's a guy depending on his speed and power tools coming off injuries that are known to have long-lasting effects on speed and power.
  17. Hairyducked Idiot
    You've gotten this really weird idea about my stance on prospects. I think they need to be properly discounted for the high probability that they won't succeed in the majors, but it's a lot more complicated than saying "always bank proven MLB performance."
  18. Hairyducked Idiot
    We're trying to find a way to fit them into a 70M payroll. Way too late for that. Once we fill out the roster, we're basically at $90 million.
  19. Hairyducked Idiot
    It's starting to feel odd that neither Schierholtz nor Stewart are official yet, and we still have to make a roster move to add both.
  20. Hairyducked Idiot
    You know the answer to that. Right or wrong, the Cubs have determined that they need to conserve resources and wait for the farm system to produce tons of talent before they make any sort of major commitments.
  21. Hairyducked Idiot
    He's been a sub replacement player in the majors, had a .780 OPS in AAA last season, and is coming off of both wrist *and* knee injuries. I get that everyone's chasing former top prospects, but the more I look, the more this guy just seems like a bad baseball player.
  22. Hairyducked Idiot
    I'll keep you entertained.
  23. Hairyducked Idiot
    Fine. Almost everyone who is not a pitcher.
  24. Hairyducked Idiot
    I didn't realize that at this time last year, we hadn't even made the Marshall trade. It was later in the offseason than I thought.
  25. Hairyducked Idiot
    Everyone who is not a pitcher.
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