Hairyducked Idiot
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Everything posted by Hairyducked Idiot
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That does not seem like a guy who would really have a source, but god I want this to be true.
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The places where all of you live suck and the Cubs turned worthless crapholes into someone who is probably a guy.
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All we need now is one good Arrieta start and we can be back to being the best team ever.
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context-wise, he's been kind of lousy http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=3&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=17&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&page=1_50 I don't believe net WPA includes either a position adjustment or any accounting of defensive value.
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#richtomricketts
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This place is gonna be a lot more pleasant for the next four days. Thanks, Cubs, you can have your u back.
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This is going to be like 2001 when they lost 8 in a row, then won 12 in a row.
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Almora's gonna have to hit another HR to make up for the rest of you.
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I specifically remember a national TV breakdown where they had some ex-pitcher talking about how hard it would be to get on top of the sinker from the position Arrieta throws it without being in utterly ridiculous shape. Right, I'm not arguing your point that Arrieta repeating his mechanics takes more athleticism/strength than the average pitcher. What I was getting at is that he always was in shape to do it, even in Baltimore. Him slipping could be an age related thing like you mention, but I'm clarifying that Arrieta has always been in terrific shape and might have slid slightly due to age, not whipped himself into shape to be super Jake and now has lost it. That makes sense.
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I'm 60% sure that 90% of those slumps and streaks are statistical illusions.
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I don't think I've watched an ASG since I was a teenager. I think the one where Sosa hit a million home runs at Miller Park the night before in the derby. Bring back PEDs please.
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I don't think your larger point here is invalid, but Arrieta has always been in terrific shape. If anything, it's the mental side of the game that's been most attributed to him repeating his mechanics better. I specifically remember a national TV breakdown where they had some ex-pitcher talking about how hard it would be to get on top of the sinker from the position Arrieta throws it without being in utterly ridiculous shape.
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I absolutely do not mean anybody specific because that would be boring and lame.
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You see a lot of other pitchers throwing 95 mph slider? plz show correlation to insane athleticism. and no [expletive] colon and arrietta are different pitchers. you are indicating - based on your words - that he needs to be extremely athletic (by the way, is he not?) to "command" his stuff. it's unfounded, irrational, and dumb. just quit now. you are a smart (though often annoying) guy that made a stupid post with a dumb insinuation. just chalk it up as a loss and carry on. Last year, every scouting or pitching coach story about Arrieta's explosion into awesomeness came because he got himself into awesome shape, which let made it easier for him to control his explosive arm motion, which is where the awesome stuff comes from. Acting aghast at this is just making you look dumb.
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That's true, it's a bad stretch of play that is really not predictive of much going forward. Nor is it happening as a result in any way of the over performance early on, which is the real point. That's the gambler's fallacy part. It is all data points. A nine-game poop show from a starter definitely has some effect on his projection going forward. Not enough to overcome all the noise, but dismissing entirely is bad too. Recency bias and status quo bias are both wrong.
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Joking about how bad things are >> actually thinking things are terrible for a team with a 5+ game lead > taking out your frustration by griping at people for complaining
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Kyle is 100% right and it's not even arguable. It takes every ounce of willpower I have not to point it out every time someone wrongly cites "regression to the mean." So what, even though they're top 5 in FIP/xFIP and they're a good rotation on paper, the past 3 weeks of terrible pitching is what can be expected for the rest of the season? I'm trying to figure out what the argument is here. That calling it regression to the mean is wrong.
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Arrieta's stuff isn't the same as Colon's stuff. so for some reason arrieta relies on his crossfit membership to be an effective pitcher while no other pitcher needs that? just trying to follow You see a lot of other pitchers throwing 95 mph slider?
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wait. why would "controlling his stuff" require insane athleticism? http://img.bleacherreport.net/img/images/photos/003/578/834/3ca47f3ee8ff5089c910b30e77ff4bd8_crop_exact.jpg?w=1500&h=1500&q=85 Arrieta's stuff isn't the same as Colon's stuff.
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The pitching performing way, way worse than their median expectations is not "regression to the mean" and calling it that is gambler's fallacy.
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If anyone can fix this team through sheer force of will and leadership, it is Almora. Anyone else hits that homer and we give it right back, but for him we hold it.
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I mean, even if it all falls under the category of "the pitching," I'm not worried about them all at the same rate. I doubt Lester has lost it forever. Lackey will probably be whatever counts as "fine" from him. Hammel always does this, this is who he is. I am worried about Arrieta. I suspect that controlling his stuff requires insane athleticism and he can't maintain it at 30 with 375 innings since last April on his arm.
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See that, Cubs? I won. remember what that feels like?
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If you really weren't worried, you wouldn't be lashing out. Relax, it can be fun no matter how they do. lashing out? you're obviously just trolling and perpetuating pessimism. it's annoying as [expletive]. i'm not worried at all. it's frustrating for everyone. what's annoying as hell are these stupid posts that are not insightful or intellectual and do literally no good. complain about the play of the game in the game thread? fine. but talking about bag heads at wrigley is stupid and uncalled for. i know you are smart enough to understand this situation, so stop acting like you're not. Deeeeep breaths. You're gonna give yourself an attack.
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Great offense and (hopefully temporary) awful pitching will do that.