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Hairyducked Idiot

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Everything posted by Hairyducked Idiot

  1. Hairyducked Idiot
    Oh no. I love Murton, but it must be a GIDP.
  2. Hairyducked Idiot
    We've been saying that a lot lately. Chew on this. Doesn't Ward PHing for Cedeno mean we'll have to see Fontenot if the game goes to extras? Eww.
  3. Hairyducked Idiot
    Intentionally loading the bases with one out to Cedeno. They never learn... He needs to hit a triple to complete his "Big bases-loaded hit" cycle.
  4. Hairyducked Idiot
    Down one run, 1st and 2nd, no outs, good hitter on deck. I don't hate this sac bunt.
  5. Hairyducked Idiot
    Because the pitch was nowhere close to being a strike? Highly risky to leave your fate up to the ump. It's also risky to swing at a pitcher's pitch and hope for a hit.
  6. Hairyducked Idiot
    I believe its 6 SB 4 CS. Don't forget one of those SB was because of a dropped catch at 3B in Pittsburgh, so realistically it should be 5 and 5 He's up to 5 called CS, 6 or 7 in reality.
  7. Hairyducked Idiot
    LOU! STOP! IT!
  8. Hairyducked Idiot
    2 runs in six innings isn't good, but it isn't ownage.
  9. Hairyducked Idiot
    High deep drive to left-center, hung in the air forever, Reed Johnson got an unholy jump on it that bordered on prescience and made a diving catch on a dead run, sliding into the wall headfirst after the dive.
  10. Hairyducked Idiot
    Funny how it seems like 88% of the time, when you see a play like Reed Johnson's end an inning then he doesn't lead off the next one.
  11. Hairyducked Idiot
    I promise not to disparagingly compare Pie and Johnson's defense for one week.
  12. Hairyducked Idiot
    As has been shown in other threads, there is room on every team for one relief pitcher who is just as important as the starters. Those high-leverage innings add up. Marmol at this point I would argue projects at just one win above replacement worse than Oswalt for the season and is younger and cheaper. I'd have to think hard before making that trade straight up. How do you factor win projections for relievers? Odds of winning before and after he enters the game. Take a chart like fangraphs.com uses. It determines each teams odds of winning based on the difference in the score, the baserunners, the inning and the outs. For example, in Marmol's last appearance, he entered the game with none on, none out, his team leading by one in the bottom of the 10th. Historically, the leading team wins 79.8% of the time of those situations. He finished the game with the Cubs winning (100% chance of win), so he is credited with .202 wins. If he had blown it and they lost right there, he would have been lost .798 wins. Like I said, a shut-down reliever used in close situations late in the games can have a huge impact and rack up a lot of wins for the team that VORP or ERA/IP wouldn't show.
  13. Hairyducked Idiot
    That's crazy talk. I think I can make a pretty good case for it. Last season, Oswalt was worth 6.7 wins above replacement based on Support Neutral Lineup Adjusted Win-Loss Above Replacement, which I think is the best stat for evaluating pitcher value. Marmol was only at 3.8 as a reliever (using expected W-L added, which is essentially the same as SNLVAR), but he didn't throw quite a whole season and he had a very low leverage index (he wasn't used in very important situations). Right now, Marmol has been worth 1.51 wins above replacement, essentially tied for second behind Cliff Lee among all pitchers (and first among relievers). He could easily reach the 6-7 wins that would put him on par with an elite starting pitcher.
  14. Hairyducked Idiot
    As has been shown in other threads, there is room on every team for one relief pitcher who is just as important as the starters. Those high-leverage innings add up. Marmol at this point I would argue projects at just one win above replacement worse than Oswalt for the season and is younger and cheaper. I'd have to think hard before making that trade straight up.
  15. Hairyducked Idiot
    Aggressiveness.
  16. Hairyducked Idiot
    There are more ways for a team to over- and under-perform than just Pythagorean Wins. That is tool that measures one specific type of deviation: run distribiution. There are others.
  17. Hairyducked Idiot
    So about one more week then?
  18. Hairyducked Idiot
    I don't think so, unless you are a fantasy owner. Aside from one season, he never stole bases with great efficiency, and his OBP isn't really high enough to make it an issue anyway. He is still fast enough to leg out a lot of doubles, and his XBH are his main asset. If his bat speed goes, that's an issue. I'm much more concerned with what it does to his defense. Great range in left was a major part of his value.
  19. Hairyducked Idiot
    If your command and mechanics are getting major-league hitters out to the tune of a sub-4.00 ERA, they don't need work.
  20. Hairyducked Idiot
    Outs are the enemy of runs. When outs get used up, other players have fewer chances to score and drive in runs themselves. How many outs did Soriano use up last season in compiling those numbers, robbing the better hitters behind him of the chance to score and drive in runs?
  21. Hairyducked Idiot
    Let's see, possibly game-losing defensive gaffe and another failure to get a runner in from third with less than two outs. Someone remind me how Theriot always gets the little things right?
  22. Hairyducked Idiot
    When you bat a guy leadoff, you are making sure they get the most PAs of anyone.
  23. Hairyducked Idiot
    Using the stats I posted earlier in the thread, Marmol has now been worth 1.516 wins above replacement. This is No. 1 for relievers, and is tied for the most valuable pitcher this season with three starters at 1.5 (for some reason, BP only lists SNLVAR to one decimal place) with Jake Peavy, Ben Sheets and Felix Hernandez. Our next-best pitcher is Zambrano at 1.2 High-leverage, shut-down relievers rock!
  24. Hairyducked Idiot
    20 extra bases and 20 fewer outs is roughly 10 runs, or roughly one win.
  25. Hairyducked Idiot
    I'm skeptical. I do not like what Soriano brings to the table, and he doesn't get on base enough for me. I hope Lou finds his balls and banishes him to be the best 5-7 hitter in the MLB. I agree. Getting a guy who will hit you 30-40 HR's a year less AB's is exactly what this team needs. Better than giving more to a guy who makes an out around 67% of the time he comes up.
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