Hairyducked Idiot
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Everything posted by Hairyducked Idiot
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Why is Alfonso Soriano one? Small. Sample. Sizes.
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My goodness, does every bad swing have to be a referendum on Pie's entire career?
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This just in: Rich Hill still has the 3rd best ERA in the rotation, assuming he's still in it.
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Anyone read Men at Work by George Will? Got a whole couple of pages on all LaRussa's favorite double-steals in various first-and-third situations.
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Did I slip into some alternate universe where walks are the deciding factor in games? I thought it was still runs. Yes, the walk totals are a problem. But you can't claim they've hurt him much, because he hasn't given up many runs. And you can't claim he'll suck in the future because of them, because a 19 IP sample-size isn't enough to project from.
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Gee I wonder why he's a headcase? (not that actually believe it to be true) I don't know if he's a headcase but if he is it's because Dusty and Lou have made him one. Thanks for proving my point. Is it ever Hill's fault? When he starts giving up a lot of runs, sure. But he hasn't yet and he's still getting jerked around for no good reason.
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And his run total is good, and his HR total is adequate, and his HRs allowed are pretty good. What's your point? It's a small sample.
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I've seen Fukudome miss multiple cutoff men without mention, but the second Pie does it he gets lectured by Brenly.
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Leadoff double, yank Wuertz!
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It's a fun new game. Take a random player you don't like, pull him after everything he doesn't do perfectly, then assume you were right. Let's pull Zambrano every time he gets into a jam.
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Free Kevin Orie!
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Is it time to make Cedeno a starter?
Hairyducked Idiot replied to cubsfan5150's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
The really stupid thing is that the Cubs know Fukudome is a 1-2 hitter with his skill set, but they insisted on batting him lower because Ramirez needed "protection." Meanwhile, Ramirez is being pitched around and junkballed worse than I've ever seen. -
BP mentions today that Woods' expected wins added relative to replacement level is now below zero, aka below replacement level. He's blown up big-time in some high-leverage situations.
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I'm going to believe the Cardinals will sweep, so as to not set myself up for disappointment. Busch Stadium is where Cubs seasons go to die.
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Nothing like lucking into the right answer in an attempt at sarcasm.
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It's amazing that you seem to be implying that 2 appearances negate or equal an entire month's worth of pitching. All pitchers, especially relievers, look really good if you take out the worst 2/13ths of their appearances. There are no league average relievers out there giving up exactly .5 runs in every appearance. They come in chunks. Wood hasn't been horrible, but two horrible appearances are enough to say he hasn't been good.
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It's amazing how good a pitcher looks when you choose an arbitrary timeframe that wipes out his worst appearances.
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Come on, man. What is that his 3rd blown save already this year? Plus the horrible outing in game one. I have had enough of the Wood for closer experiment. I agree, Marmol to closer. Sorry Kerry, but in save situations this year he has been terrible. Despite the fact that Wood blew the game, Marmol's innings were the more important ones today. You want your best pitcher in with 1st and 3rd in the seventh, not coming into a 2-run lead with none on, none out in the 9th.
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- Fukudome may not be fundamentally sound.
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The situations you listed are not analogous, and it's a false choice. It's very possible that a turnover with three minutes to hurts you more than the one with 3 seconds to go. The one with three minutes to go may drop you from a 50% chance to win to a 10% chance to win. The one with three seconds may drop you from 10% to 5%. Here's what major league teams actually do in these situations: http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902.html With a runner on first and no outs, an out puts you from a situation where the average team scores .95 runs to one where they score .57 runs. It's cost you .38 runs. With a runner on first and two outs, you go from .25 runs to zero, costing you .25 runs. Human beings are loss averse. Our minds tend to overestimate our last sliver of a chance to not lose, even when a loss is almost assured. All your faulty logic doesn't change the actual results of major-league ballgames.
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When the team goes from zero outs to one out, the average number of runs they score goes down more than when they go from two outs to three.
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And you are still wrong. Check a run expectancy chart. I don't care what a stupid chart tells me. It's a simple fact I would rather have a mistake that doesn't end the inning than one that does. This is why you get more upset when someone strikes out with two outs than with no outs. There is no chance to make up for a two out mistake in a inning. Chart's and statistics aren't the end all be all. Is your globe flat? Does your car get 20 rods to the hogshead? The reason you get more upset is because of problems in human perception. The first out costs you more on average than the third one does.
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I can live with the likely loss. I just hope we don't do anything stupid like make Marmol the closer after this.
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Two strikes. If anyone on this team can finish a batter besides Marmol, it's got to be Wood.
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And you are still wrong. Check a run expectancy chart.