PECOTA disagrees, but yes - losing gallardo and having ned yost as a manager are two reasons that their record may not be as good as PECOTA would expect. I wonder what PECOTA would say if you added in the stats to date this season as well.
At this point, I don't think either team finishes within 8 games of the Cubs, and I'd prefer the Cardinals lose just to put the Cubs in first and make me feel better.
They track the odds of either team winning based on the relative score, inning, outs and baserunners. When the line is dead center, it's 50/50 (usually a tie game at the end of an inning).
Were some MLB team unfortunate enough to have me in charge, I'd have one pen spot reserved for some worthless AAA guy with little value and I'd abuse his arm like crazy in every blowout. Then when his arm went out, I'd find another one.
I now want to punch John Paxson in the face. A coach wasn't gonna change the fact that the team has no superstar and isn't smart enough to tear it down and lose enough for a chance to draft one. They are in perfect NBA purgatory.
Runner on first, no outs, down one in the seventh. Leverage index 3.03. It really, physically hurts to see the Cubs choosing to use an inferior player, then choosing to try to lower their odds of scoring.