You think the Fiesta would take a Big Ten team and Okie State? Here's how I see it as of now: NC- Fla/Bama vs. Texas Rose- Ohio State vs. Oregon Sugar- Fla/Bama vs. Cincinnati Orange- Georgia Tech vs. TCU Fiesta- Iowa/PSU vs. Boise I think it would be tough to sell two 2 loss teams over undefeated Boise with a win over Oregon. If they got Iowa they wouldn't have to worry much about ticket sales and Boise would probably bring nearly as many people as Okie State. The Fiesta Bowl is tied to the Big 12 and from what I hear, they might want to stay in conference for their at-large. I'm pretty sure they're a bigger draw than the Broncos as well, though not as much as some other BCS teams. For selections, I would guess it goes: Sugar - SEC loser Fiesta - Oklahoma St Orange - Iowa/PSU Fiesta - TCU Sugar - Cincinnati Leading to: MNC: SEC winner v Texas Rose: Ohio St v Pac10 Sugar: SEC loser v Cinci/Pitt Orange: Iowa/PSU v ACC Fiesta: TCU v Oklahoma St That's assuming Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, which would be a sizable upset. Now that I look at that, that's a terrible match up for the Fiesta. Maybe they do go Big 10, but I think the Orange would still take a BCS team like Oklahoma St or (gasp) USC. We'll see who's eligible at the end of the season, but I still think the bowls avoid taking Boise if they can. Edit: VT is in the hunt too, but the Orange can't take them. USC is out of it unless a bunch of teams lose. Virginia Tech is toast. The SEC loser and TCU are locks for at-large picks. The pool to choose the next two teams will come from Iowa, Penn State, Boise, Okie State and Pitt/Cincy loser. Unless something crazy happens I think it will be a Big Ten and Boise. The first picks go to the Sugar Bowl and then the Fiesta. Sugar will definitely take the SEC loser. Iowa needs to hope the Fiesta selects them with the next pick. Supposedly they're in good shape for the Fiesta but if they were passed over on the first pick, the Orange would rather have PSU than Iowa so they would be shut out. The Big East will be the final pick to the Sugar playing Bama/Fla and I don't see either of them being an at-large draw. If OU beats Okie State and Michigan State beats PSU and Cincy beats Pitt I think it becomes academic. First three would be as you said then GT vs. TCU and Iowa vs. Boise in the Fiesta.