Geographyhater8888

Much more sophisticated than baseball reference which I would assume they quantity DRS by fielding percentage or something less comprehensive? Fan graphs projects the cubs to finish with 91 wins, tied for the third best record in baseball behind the tigers and Dodgers who top out at 96 wins. Very conservative projections for all teams. out of curiosity, the Cubs are only third in total team WAR as of right now despite leading MLB in run differential. Since runs correlate with wins, I’d think they’d be number 1. Is it also projection based and players over performing some metrics will penalize total WAR? If so Suarez and Shaw wouldn’t have a 2.8 win gap so I’m curious what’s going on with that. Let me know if when you’re sick of answering my questions.

The NFL is much harder to quantify players with advanced data for too many reasons to list but one thing you never see is +’s that adjust for era. From the naked eye. Marino’s career 86 passer rating is below average in 2025 but he was roughly +1.18 above league average for his career. One thing that’s never adjusted for is stadium factors. Soilder field and MetLife is much harder to throw in than a domed stadium, that’s a start. wOBA and wRC+, while tightly linked are also baseballs equivalent of passer rating and or ANY/A because it’s more of an efficiency based stat as opposed to triple crown stats and OPS that’s a lot more concrete in nature, and don’t assign different values to different outcomes to the extent that that a single is weighed higher as a multiplier than a walk, even though both result in one base. Is this fair? For defensive fWAR how do they quantify that outside of fielding percentage? I’d assume it’s mostly quantity of outs from a positional standpoint. PCA has more unassisted outs than any outfielder because of his remarkable range.

With the saturation of advanced stats we live in a time where Ryan Howard hit 48 homers, 146 RBIs and posted a 2.8 fWAR in 2008. In other words, he’s basically 1 win above league average, which you already know but it’s amazing how much the landscape of player evaluation has changed. NFL is way behind the times.

I should’ve been more specific. Offense is the term they use. In any case, go ZIPS. Too late for it to matter in ZIPS I guess. I don’t think he’ll cost you a Cassie though. Out of curiosity, is this an all encompassing projection or simply wins above replacement without wPA being e24 or any of the other advanced stats used that go beyond a stat that isolates a single player?

Fangraphs lists Suarez batted runs at 15.3, Shaw at -9.3. Suarez has posted a 2.8 fWAR while Shaw is a replacement level 0 fWAR. So if Shaw’s hits start landing away from defenders then he’d trend towards 0-2 runs? Thats a made up approximation. Suarez trends towards 12 batted runs and with the wind blowing out you can expect more. That’s where I came up with that number with the net positive in runs in place of Shaw. The base running and defense closes the gap a bit on Shaw and Suarez obviously but as of now, an aspiring above replacement level hitter vs a 2.8 fWAR. Of course based on what he has control over. A grandslam and a solo shot amount to the same batted runs. You’ll also strengthen the lefty righty splits where PCA and Busch are basically 2 different hitters, 2 of your top sluggers who are neutralized 3/10 games. obviously pitching is a top priority but a lineup where your worst hitter is still above average intrigues me a lot. I say this with little expectation that he’ll be a Cub but we’ve already established the need for another bat. He’d be thee bat available and as a rental wouldn’t cost you a massive haul unless the bidding war causes a team to significantly overpay.

Shaw, regardless of metrics is an issue info far as there’s no elite arm on the market, A solid MOR starting pitcher is an upgrade no doubt but if and when you have a chance to increase your scoring output by .2 runs/game, that’s worth the gamble, especially if you believe this team is a couple pieces away from removing all doubt. A lineup where Happ is statistically your worst hitter is very potent. Dodgers didn’t need Ohtani either, they scored 907 runs in 2023 and weee second in MLB. That’s an extreme example but if you can upgrade I don’t see what the hang up is. And when 2 of your top 4 sluggers like PCA and Busch are basically Patrick wisdom, at least in the case of PCA with a small sample size from Busch vs lefties it’d held the teams platoon splits to hopefully a significant enough degree. Didn’t fact check my Patrick Wisdom comp but I’m sure you get the gist. What’s Shaw’s xBA? His exit velocity and hard contact doesn’t exactly blown anyone away. The reason I want a third baseman is more to move the needle enough in conjunction with a Joe Ryan for example as it would with say, a true ace pitcher in place of both. I wasn’t suggesting Gallen I was asking you why he’s not as effective as years past, It’s without a doubt starting pitching is the most pressing need, that’s a given. My opinion is if you believe this team is capable of winning a World Series you do whatever is necessary as long as the cost isn’t too detrimental long term.

Out of curiosity, what’s the reason for Gallens regression? He was outstanding for a few years and the year his contract is up he lays an egg? Ideally its a simple mechanical fix away that Hottovy spotted and can bring turn back the clock a couple years if not injury related, in a perfect world the diamondbacks sell low on him and package Suarez. the Cubs are a number 3 starter and a Suarez caliber bat away from removing all doubt that they can make a deep playoff push. I’d like your thoughts on this.

Fielder positioning isn’t part of the equation which is where you’re lost. If he hits that 120 mph with a higher launch angle that xBA is 1000. Hence 43% of the time Dansby’s hard contact is caught by an outfielder. Tagged you by accident.

All of the historical data they’ve collected estimates that if the ball comes off of his bat at 104 mph at that specific launch angle, it will result in a hit 57/100 times. 43/100 times that ball is hit straight at a defender for an out as we saw With Dansby. His XBA on that swing would be a lot lower if they calculated it based on location of hit and where the fielder is positioned, which I think is what’s confusing you.

Great way to rebound after that abomination on Friday. Shota and Boyd were money.

Another wasted opportunity to make this game relaxing.

Held Judge 0-3 with 2 strike outs and a weak ground out. Awesome work. Forgot just how much we missed him in the rotation thanks to the offense playing out of their minds in the early Months.

Thanks for the reminder guys.

Time for Tucker Seiya and PCA to remind us why they’re at the top of the order.

There we go. Hit it hard in the air.

Cubs can’t possibly screw this up, or even bad luck, right?

Warren has been unlucky all year too. Daseball is bumb.

What side of the advanced stats aisle does he fall? Is he a preachy nerd or analytic denying Neanderthal?

5 hits and 2 walks, don’t let the 1 run distract you from the sexy wRC+.

I know they’ve only scored 1 run through 4, but with 5 hits and 2 walks that wRC+ is looking sexy.

Just the man you want up. Go Dansby.

Time for the bats to take advantage of the dimensions and loft one over the short porch.

What’s the team wRC+ with RISP since June 1st?

Shota hitting the high 80’s on his fastball since his return I assume is also part of the equation.

Favorable pitching matchup, sort of depending on Shotas velocity.. Going into the break in first place with a series win vs a playoff contender for the first time since taking 2/3 from a struggling brewers team in may would make for a nice 4 days. The other thing on the line is that run differential, only a 2 run edge over the Yankees for the MLB lead. Get it done.