That’s with steamer projecting Horton to post a 1.2, a full win less than last season. Ben Brown posted a 1.1 fWAR last season. So if he’s worth 1 less win then that means injuries, because you can’t convince me Ben Brown was worth over a win in 15 starts last year because of his respectable FIP. He flat out sucked.
I know they’re conservative with their projections but what we hope will be a full season of Horton vs 15 starts from Brown won’t be close a wash like their model says. The rotation will be more more than a win better unless they’re devistated by injuries.