Jump to content
North Side Baseball

Geographyhater8888

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    3,356

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    2

 Content Type 

Profiles

Joomla Posts 1

Chicago Cubs Videos

Chicago Cubs Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

2026 Chicago Cubs Top Prospects Ranking

News

2023 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks

Guides & Resources

2024 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks

The Chicago Cubs Players Project

2025 Chicago Cubs Draft Pick Tracker

2026 Chicago Cubs Draft Tracker: Picks & Bonuses

Blogs

Events

Forums

Store

Gallery

Everything posted by Geographyhater8888

  1. Geographyhater8888
    For Caleb to have a 100 passer rating he’d need either 70 more completions to compete 70% or 1,360 more passing yards on the same number of attempts for 5.300 yards. The difference between 9.1 ANY/A which would be top 5 all time and 6.76 which ranked 10th this year.
  2. Geographyhater8888
    It does. ANY/A is more predictive of wins and losses than passer rating. Completion percentage is too heavily weighted relative to Y/A in my opinion for passer rating.
  3. Geographyhater8888
    And if you flip Happ and Shaw’s second and first halves they’d be on a 76 win pace in the second half. Everyone stabilized to their career averages with some give and take. Swanson and Happs age related decline is also a question mark. Happ seemed to have lost a step and Swanson had a down year defensively. Don’t know if it’s a coincidence or something more.
  4. Geographyhater8888
    And Shaw will replace Castro/Berti/Brujan/Looez/Workman etc. Suzuki had down year too contrary to popular belief as did Happ with bad BABIP luck. Swanson had a bad year defensively relative to his usual performance. Hopefully it’s not age related. PCA and Busch are semi question marks. The catcher position will probably see a dip in production too. But the improve bench has been a bit underrated in my opinion. They were below replacement level last season posting a -2 fWAR.
  5. Geographyhater8888
    Caleb’s EPA is 90 points higher than 2024 and added 25 points in December when Johnson said the offense would be clicking, which would make him a top 5 quarterback extrapolated into a 17 games. Passer rating, completion %, yards and TD passes are equivalent to triple crown stats in baseball. He’s 10th in ANY/A which is a combination of things that matter like NY/A and TD:INT ratio+TD%. He’s improved by multiple standard deviations above league average across all categories outside of completion %, passer rating and INT%, because that was his only area of strength last season. He’s a middle of the pack quarterback in terns of next gen stats but the trajectory of his growth is what’s encouraging.
  6. Geographyhater8888
    I can live with the missing the routine throws and reads (for now) as long as he makes up for it with his his circus throws which he basically has since week 12. He’s completed 61% of his throws over 20 air yards which ranked 2nd in the NFL. Weeks 1-11 he only completed 35% of them. We’re seeing a lot more of the Caleb Williams that made him the number 1 pick. I attribute it partly to better pass blocking from Trapilo who we’ll miss on Sunday but Caleb is also talent as horsefeathers.
  7. Geographyhater8888
    No below replacement level production from the bench, they’ve upgraded, no 15 starts from Ben Brown with added SP depth and Horton being in the opening day rotation. Shota Tailon and Steele all missing 10+ starts and costed wins, so health played a role last year. The. addition of Bregman alone should add at least 3.5 more wins from third base. Third base posted a 0 fWAR and a-.9 going into the all start break. Suzukis home runs were up but his OPS was down 40+ points from both 23-24. Swanson had a down year defensively too, whether or not it’s age related I can’t say. Happ posted his lowest fWAR since 2021 and had bad BABIP luck. The catcher position and the void left by Tucker are the only areas where I expect a noticeable dip in production. The high leverage relief arms might not be as reliable either. I see this team within 3 games of last years win total potentially in either direction and will likely underperform their pythag win record by at least 4 games. Because that’s what they do.
  8. Geographyhater8888
    There’s potential for disaster. Bears defense does play better at home for what it’s worth but the offense can’t mess around in the first half against this opponent.
  9. Geographyhater8888
    Sure. But injuries and age will really be the only thing that will slow them down to the point where “anything can happen” isn’t the only reason for optimism.
  10. Geographyhater8888
    Would you feel dirty cheering for the Cubs if we swapped places? I wouldn’t.
  11. Geographyhater8888
    They basically slept walked tonight 93 wins, got healthy by design during late September and steamrolled their way through the NL. Ran into the Jays who were a buzz saw and yet their talent ultimately prevailed. They’re not much different from Sabans Bama teams recruiting every 5 star recruit.
  12. Geographyhater8888
    It’s demoralizing how we’re in here praising our great offseason trading for Cabrera and signing Bregman while the back to back champs have added Tucker and Diaz to their already stacked roster. Who’s beating them without a number of major injuries?
  13. Geographyhater8888
    Whether or not there’s a salary cap my “their loss” comment was stated with the utmost sarcasm.
  14. Geographyhater8888
    Dodgers stack high priced star players like Nick Saban stacked 5 star recruits. They’re worse than Steinbrenners 2000’s Yankees. Their loss not having clean books in time for the new CBA.
  15. Geographyhater8888
    He also was left on an island allowing more receivers to run routes. It’s no coincidence Caleb suddenly found his deep ball when he took over. Like you said one less pick that can be used for defense. I trust Ben’s talent evaluation though.
  16. Geographyhater8888
    It’s more balanced but I don’t have the exact data. Benedet is a downgrade though.
  17. Geographyhater8888
    Because Zobrist and Bryant were both versatile and split time in left field. None of our 4 infielders have experience in the outfield that I know of. Luckily with the universal DH there’s room for all 4. Either way I agree. Why make the team worse with Suzuki/Happ/Nico/Tailon etc off the books next year when you can cash in on their last year together. Cubs don’t need to stockpile minor leaguers with a top 10 payroll.
  18. Geographyhater8888
    Losing Ozzy hurts. The offense became a lot more explosive once he became the starter with the pass protection holding up for long developing plays. 152 completed air yard average with Ozzy vs 117 completed air yards average without.
  19. Geographyhater8888
    Stafford’s rocket balls will feel like catching bricks in the bitter cold. That’s our hope but it applies to Caleb too.
  20. Geographyhater8888
    If anyone knows of another 2 seeded team who were 4 point underdogs at home I’d love to know.
  21. Geographyhater8888
    If they trade Nico it better be lopsided in favor of the Cubs. Nothing close enough to a straight value swap.
  22. Geographyhater8888
    Horton also swing and miss stuff too. He’s not exactly Javier Assad. We’re better off with him in the opening day rotation than Ben brown and his great strikeout rate.
  23. Geographyhater8888
    And the rotation is deeper. Swapping Brown out of the rotation for Horton is huge. I refuse to believe Brown was worth a 1.1 fWAR. He flat out sucked. The catcher position might see a dip in offensive production though.
  24. Geographyhater8888
    They’ll likely net at least 3.5 more wins from third base while swapping Ben Brown for hopefully close to a full year of Horton+the addition of Cabrera, as long as they can stay healthy I think makes it wash. But yes, there’s no replacement for Tucker when healthy.
  25. Geographyhater8888
    Tuckers OPS was 747 with 7 of his 22 homers hit at wrigley and a 923 away from Wrigley. 21 of Busch’s 34 were hit away from Wrigley and 7 of his 13 were against St. Louis. PCA was more balanced hitting 15/31 at wrigley but his OPS jumped from 698 away to 844 at Wrigley unlike the other 2 for some context. We’ll never know but I’d bet any contention he has is related to his home away splits and perhaps the $ it costed him.
×
×
  • Create New...