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Geographyhater8888

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  1. So does Ohtani. You can say this about anyone. No one claims Swanson’s was was penalized because he was moved down to 8th in the order and his 3.3 fWAR wasn’t a true reflection of his production. Duran has earned the privilege to leadoff because he’s an elite base runner with a 121 wRC+ since becoming an everyday starter in 2023.
  2. The Vikings went 9-8 despite horrible quarterback play and went from an offense that ranked 9th in yards with Darnold to 25th with 10 games of injury prone McCarthy, Wentz and Brosmer. They should be upset, they’d be division champs with a capable quarterback like Darnold.
  3. Shaw’s a 40.8. That’s the route I’d go for Shaw. Duran is 28 though with 3 more years of team control with arbitration. he’d make the 2026 Cubs a better team with Suzuki sliding back into DH. I don’t like losing Shaw’s versatility but our 1-9 would be potent and the Moises experiment won’t be necessary and he can work on his catching in Iowa instead. Can’t say whether it’s in the Cubs best interest or not. Jed’s been talking with Boston so if this was ever a possibility he would’ve signed a utility infielder before the market dried up, unless there’s some crazy scenario where he signs Gallen and flips Taillon for a utility If.
  4. It’s not something that should keep anyone awake at night but the only question marks are on the fringes like PCA’s low floor as a hitter and Bellestaros’s ability to be a quality bat at DH.
  5. Correct. I should’ve clarified our path to the World Series would be more than “just get in and anything can happen” to close to a coin flip. Our floor is as high as anyone’s outside of LA just not the ceiling.
  6. Considering that Jed is so particular and risk averse when it comes to free agents I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt here that his models are correct and Bregman will live up to his contact and age well. The team as is is still a Juan Soto and Garret Crochet away from being NL favorites, and the lack of true star power is underwhelming. My hope is Steele, Horton and Cabrera stay healthy and become a potent rotation trio.
  7. If his free swinging approach is part of his game then he can be successful like Javy was. But we still don’t have a big enough sample size to what his true baseline as a hitter is and the degree of regression we can expect. Is he a 100-110 RC+ guy? 105-95? 100-90? Better or worse? 2/3rds of the lineup we know what we’re getting so the offenses ceiling hinges on PCAs ability to bounce back and unknowns like Bellestaros and Busch’s adeptness at hitting lefties to a lesser degree.
  8. Bregman also bring other intangibles as a great teammate and asset In the clubhouse while Valdez crossed up his catcher intentionally. Another aspect of Bregman vs Valdez that can’t be quantified on a stat sheet.
  9. I’ll bet that 25 yard touchdown to DJ vs the Browns over 3 defenders is up there.
  10. It’s a joke that Stafford and Maye were separated by 1 vote for MVP. Stafford should’ve won decisively.
  11. Reinsdorf is the Robert Horry of owners. The 2005 whitesox were an accident too. I wish he’d sell the Bulls and keep the Sox.
  12. We’d all accept if 2025 PCA as a streaky 109 wRC+ hitter with 30 home run pop was an accurate representation of what he’ll be as a hitter in the future, regardless of pre and post ASB splits. He’s a mechanical tweak away from being better than an almost 2 standard deviations worse than average hitter. He’s much better than that. He’s such a wild card though so there’s some uncertainty. He was Rex Grossman like with more 100 passer rating games.
  13. Another question is which PCA will show up and whether or not his second half skid was simple variance or a worrying trend. If he’s a league average hitter he’ll likely a post somewhere around 4.5 fWAR.
  14. A Like others have suggested I’d give him designated days to catch. Cubs will need his at bat at DH with lesser alternatives against right handers. I’m sure he’ll have opportunities in spring training too.
  15. On paper it seems like a hitting advantage being 5’8. It’s harder to throw strikes with a smaller strike zone. It makes sense if you pretend Aaron Judge isn’t 6’7.
  16. The balls in Jed’s court for sure. Once again though, Gallen feels redundant and interchangeable with Boyd, Taillon and Shota. He has more upside that Taillon I guess. We’re counting on Horton, Cabrera and Steeles upside and health to make noise in October. So I’m not sure how excited I should be if they end up with Gallen.
  17. His hard hit rate and velocity was Almost identical in the first and second half. Who knows. But I’m leaning more towards his conduct issues being the reason he’s unsigned.
  18. He finished the season right around his career norms in FIP, xFIP, fWAR and innings pitched. Unless there’s an injury he was the same guy he’s been for the last 4 seasons. Bergmans bad second half didn’t deter Jed.
  19. Unlikely but If Valdez is paying an a$$ hole tax by the market then signing a legitimate ceiling raiser at a discount would be amazing. Catcher bean balling or not he’s a World Series champion and has a ton of postseason success. I won’t complain if they sign Gallen but he’s redundant in a rotation with Taillon, Shota and Boyd. His value would be length of years and varying upside over Taillon.
  20. I know. It can reach 97 I think. I thought stat cast made an error when they called his 97 mph pitch a change up.
  21. Best case scenario. Not necessarily what we expect out of him. Does he have a career as an elite pen arm if his elbow is a problem? 6 man rotation or not.
  22. What is the best case scenario for Edward Cabrera? Jed traded for his upside and ability to miss bats. Are we thinking 150+ innings and a 3+ fWAR?
  23. Cardinals have finally ditched modeling themselves after the Steelers of MLB for good. Reds are going to be an even bigger pain in the ass this year than usual.
  24. Because baseball reference exaggerates park factors and their defensive runs saved model for some reason really loves giving credit to cubs defenders (59 runs vs 34.5 defensive runs) and more than the pitchers despite their respectable runs per 9. Their OPS+ as a team was 116 and wRC+ was 110 because of the park factor. So I’d assume cubs pitchers get penalized a lot for that too. Fangraphs also gives pitchers 430/1000 total war in a season while BR only gives pitchers 410/1000. That’s the best I’ve got.
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