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Geographyhater8888

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  1. Geographyhater8888
    Considering that Jed is so particular and risk averse when it comes to free agents I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt here that his models are correct and Bregman will live up to his contact and age well. The team as is is still a Juan Soto and Garret Crochet away from being NL favorites, and the lack of true star power is underwhelming. My hope is Steele, Horton and Cabrera stay healthy and become a potent rotation trio.
  2. Geographyhater8888
    If his free swinging approach is part of his game then he can be successful like Javy was. But we still don’t have a big enough sample size to what his true baseline as a hitter is and the degree of regression we can expect. Is he a 100-110 RC+ guy? 105-95? 100-90? Better or worse? 2/3rds of the lineup we know what we’re getting so the offenses ceiling hinges on PCAs ability to bounce back and unknowns like Bellestaros and Busch’s adeptness at hitting lefties to a lesser degree.
  3. Geographyhater8888
    Bregman also bring other intangibles as a great teammate and asset In the clubhouse while Valdez crossed up his catcher intentionally. Another aspect of Bregman vs Valdez that can’t be quantified on a stat sheet.
  4. Geographyhater8888
    I’ll bet that 25 yard touchdown to DJ vs the Browns over 3 defenders is up there.
  5. Geographyhater8888
    It’s a joke that Stafford and Maye were separated by 1 vote for MVP. Stafford should’ve won decisively.
  6. Geographyhater8888
    Reinsdorf is the Robert Horry of owners. The 2005 whitesox were an accident too. I wish he’d sell the Bulls and keep the Sox.
  7. Geographyhater8888
    We’d all accept if 2025 PCA as a streaky 109 wRC+ hitter with 30 home run pop was an accurate representation of what he’ll be as a hitter in the future, regardless of pre and post ASB splits. He’s a mechanical tweak away from being better than an almost 2 standard deviations worse than average hitter. He’s much better than that. He’s such a wild card though so there’s some uncertainty. He was Rex Grossman like with more 100 passer rating games.
  8. Geographyhater8888
    Another question is which PCA will show up and whether or not his second half skid was simple variance or a worrying trend. If he’s a league average hitter he’ll likely a post somewhere around 4.5 fWAR.
  9. Geographyhater8888
    A Like others have suggested I’d give him designated days to catch. Cubs will need his at bat at DH with lesser alternatives against right handers. I’m sure he’ll have opportunities in spring training too.
  10. Geographyhater8888
    On paper it seems like a hitting advantage being 5’8. It’s harder to throw strikes with a smaller strike zone. It makes sense if you pretend Aaron Judge isn’t 6’7.
  11. Geographyhater8888
    What’s the best case scenario from Bellestaros?
  12. Geographyhater8888
    The balls in Jed’s court for sure. Once again though, Gallen feels redundant and interchangeable with Boyd, Taillon and Shota. He has more upside that Taillon I guess. We’re counting on Horton, Cabrera and Steeles upside and health to make noise in October. So I’m not sure how excited I should be if they end up with Gallen.
  13. Geographyhater8888
    His hard hit rate and velocity was Almost identical in the first and second half. Who knows. But I’m leaning more towards his conduct issues being the reason he’s unsigned.
  14. Geographyhater8888
    He finished the season right around his career norms in FIP, xFIP, fWAR and innings pitched. Unless there’s an injury he was the same guy he’s been for the last 4 seasons. Bergmans bad second half didn’t deter Jed.
  15. Geographyhater8888
    Unlikely but If Valdez is paying an a$$ hole tax by the market then signing a legitimate ceiling raiser at a discount would be amazing. Catcher bean balling or not he’s a World Series champion and has a ton of postseason success. I won’t complain if they sign Gallen but he’s redundant in a rotation with Taillon, Shota and Boyd. His value would be length of years and varying upside over Taillon.
  16. Geographyhater8888
    I know. It can reach 97 I think. I thought stat cast made an error when they called his 97 mph pitch a change up.
  17. Geographyhater8888
    Best case scenario. Not necessarily what we expect out of him. Does he have a career as an elite pen arm if his elbow is a problem? 6 man rotation or not.
  18. Geographyhater8888
    What is the best case scenario for Edward Cabrera? Jed traded for his upside and ability to miss bats. Are we thinking 150+ innings and a 3+ fWAR?
  19. Geographyhater8888
    Cardinals have finally ditched modeling themselves after the Steelers of MLB for good. Reds are going to be an even bigger pain in the ass this year than usual.
  20. Geographyhater8888
    Because baseball reference exaggerates park factors and their defensive runs saved model for some reason really loves giving credit to cubs defenders (59 runs vs 34.5 defensive runs) and more than the pitchers despite their respectable runs per 9. Their OPS+ as a team was 116 and wRC+ was 110 because of the park factor. So I’d assume cubs pitchers get penalized a lot for that too. Fangraphs also gives pitchers 430/1000 total war in a season while BR only gives pitchers 410/1000. That’s the best I’ve got.
  21. Geographyhater8888
    bWAR exaggerates the impact of park factors relative to fWAR, so Cubs hitters had a relatively higher OPS+ than wRC+. The defensive calculations are different too so bWAR basically weighs the impact of Cubs defenders and Wrigley’s pitcher friendly conditions much more heavily than Fangraphs. The discrepancy between the positional bWAR and fWAR is an 8 win difference so they got all the credit for those defensive runs saved and pitching got very little from baseball reference. As far as projections go ZIPS always leans conservative. Cubs pitchers had a higher fWAR than bWAR in 2025. Are you asking why the projections are lower by ZIPS?
  22. Geographyhater8888
    What’s terrifying is McCarthy was Poles QB2 and a backup plan if Caleb ended up pulling an Eli. I don’t know what anyone saw in McCarthy.
  23. Geographyhater8888
    Seems like Suzukis arm extention gives umps the illusion pitches off the plate are strikes.
  24. Geographyhater8888
    Which is the only possible way he’s a Cub if I were to bet. In the end the health of our high upside arms in Horton, Cabrera and Steele will be key in a playoff series. Boyd, Shota, Tailon, Assad and Rae will keep everyone fresh and will help us beat last place teams with a really strong backend of the rotation and we’ll have the edge in many pitching matchups. That’s how you finish 54-24 vs sub 500 teams with a +160 RD.
  25. Geographyhater8888
    Gallen on a short term deal with an opt out after this year would be an odd lateral move for the rotation assuming they dump Tailon. If they keep everyone you’re going over the second threshold for a guy who brings only a moderate amount of upside.
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