Stratos
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Everything posted by Stratos
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They could be sellers and buyers and position themselves for 2025+ while in theory remaining in the race. The issue is that don't really have a lot to sell even if they for whatever reason wanted to tank (unless they wanted to start moving position guys) nor is it worth going all-in on this team.
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Maximizing WAR per dollar spent is how you win the most games given the payroll you have (plus some intangibles thrown in the mix). The problem is Jed has wasted tens of millions on several low WAR players with barely above replacement tools who typically get released or benched/demoted mid-season. Wasting money is absurd, and that's what Hoyer has done with several signings, luckily not longterm ones. Fringe players filling out the bottom of the roster should be low cost guys on the scrap heap with potential or trading for career AAA guys with potential to contribute like Tauchman, Wisdom, Tepera etc
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Jed has spent money and payroll. His job is to literally maximize the WAR per million spent. The issue isn't avoiding terrible mega contracts to get stars, its that he's been really inconsistent at value-spending in FA, while also not having a ton of surplus from young players. Jed has done well with with his 3+ year acquisitions like Imanaga, Seiya, Taillon. He extended Happ and Nico. But he hasn't done the same care with value with low-end talent like Smyly, Mancini, Barnhart, Hendricks, Neris etc. The Billy Beane's A's or the Rays never went out and spend 9.5m AAV on Smyly or 7.5m on Mancini or 6 million on a washed up Arrieta etc, all guys with borderline replacement talent/tools.
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Even if we do sell there isn't much to move realistically if we're to compete in 2025 on Opening Day. Taillon, Hendricks, and maybe a reliever (the latter 2 won't demand much). They could even move Taillon if they get an appealing offer and hope they get lucky with whomever replaces him in the rotation the final 2 months. May just make more sense to stay put and roll the dice and hope to get hot in the last 2 months for a wildcard spot and possibly add a reliever, catcher and/or 3b at the deadline that don't cost anything significant. Can't see them adding a Candelario type.
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I think its possible some of the injuries Morel has played through this year including the hand may have had some effect on his offense, as well as an unusually low BABIP that should come back up. That said, he still may not be more than an average MLB player, and his inability to adjust to non-fastballs on the outer half limits him. I really doubt his aptitude to make the adjustments to improve the way he needs to, and the lack of skills in the field. A couple of weeks ago I saw a replay of a line-drive down the 3b line he missed in the field. He jumps on the balls of his feet right before every pitch, and on this play he was literally in mid-air of his hop when the batter made contact with the ball and so was totally unprepared to make a play on it. These kinds of things add up.
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2024 MLB Draft Day 1 Thread
Stratos replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
I probably put him ahead of Triantos based on the power and glove. Triantos seems to have only 2 plus tools: hit and arm, and probably ends up with a walk-rate below the league average due to the contact ability. Triantos could end up a .270+ hitter, 10-15 HR and below average defense. I think the upside on Cam Smith is higher because of the power and glove but not quite as high floor. -
2024 MLB Draft Day 1 Thread
Stratos replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
I agree 100%. Seems like a really solid pick given the options, with high floor and some more upside in the power department. -
2024 MLB Draft Day 1 Thread
Stratos replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
I know nothing about the prospects in this draft LOL. I've followed it 0% -
Does PCA use cutoff men? Does he even throw to home on a bounce as they teach? I've seen him throw over the catcher multiple times. He always errs on making the spectacular play, sometimes at the expense of making the smart play.
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38 players have been selected as NL all-stars among 15 NL teams. Only 1 from the Cubs. Yikes. Happ is close, and Steele/Taillon could have made it without injuries.
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Generally I agree, good post. Also considering we traded Darvish with the no-trade clause. We may have a crowded OF a year from now though so trading somebody may be optimal. Happ, Suzuki, Bellinger, PCA, Caissie, plus Tauchman and Canario more as bench types. Would be best to get rid of one of the first 3 guys to free up payroll. One of those OF can DH, and there's no rush with Caissie, he just turned 22 a week ago, but he's progressing well and by mid season next year there may not be anything left for him to learn in AAA.
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Ian Happ has the 7th highest WAR among NL outfielders. I like Happ, he's a gamer and his entire focus seems to be on the game in the moment. He plays every game and virtually never gets injured, big moments don't seem to bother him, he doesn't smile, he seems to have zero ego, and he gives the bare minimum effort to the post-hit hand celebrations his teammates do because he doesn't GAF about that stuff. In an era of bat flips I find this charming. Its close, but if I had to trade one of Happ/Suzuki I'd probably trade Suzuki. Give me a winner over a dropper of routine flyballs in big situations.
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Morel needs to make more adjustments at the plate. He took an outside pitch and drove it hard over the CF yesterday, I was impressed. But then he was way out in front of an offspeed pitch to end the game, but that happens. Canario has similar issues. Caissie K's a ton but it seems more like not having quick hands rather than poor plate approach, similar to Busch.
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His 2-strike approach is non-existent. He doesn't know how to fight tough pitches off. He needs to expand his zone an inch or 2 on 2-strikes.
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Morel and PCA have almost no baseball skills and need to go back to Iowa.
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Yeah let's go for 3-1
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Anyone notice that this is exactly what happened to the Cubs last season? Strange.
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Not sure the play you're talking about but he seems pretty bad when going back.
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Chapman will be 32 next year at the end of April. I'm passing on him unless it's a 1 yr deal because he'll want several years. I'd be fine trying Busch at 3b later this year if we look out of the race. If he looks adequate I'd go with him at 3b and Bellinger at 1b until Shaw or maybe Triantos is ready possibly mid season next year and can take over 3b, then move Busch back to 1b permanently. I like Jansen at C, or find a C in a trade. I don't think Ballesteros ends up a good C, he's more a DH/1b, his movements behind the plate are reportedly not quick/agile and he's had trouble throwing out runners because of it according to mlb.com prospect write up. If Soto is nabbed he can play a corner OF and trade one of Happ/Suzuki with PCA in CF. Ideally PCA is still in Iowa right now instead of wasting his service time when he's clearly still very green but whatevs Trade Soto around age 30 if possible. Trade Taillon this deadline if we're sellers and replace him in FA this winter.
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Jays just put Kevin Kiermeier on waivers. Having a bad year at the plate. Owed 4.5m for the rest of the season if picked up by somebody. Probably better with PCA/Canario and using the cash on a trade if we're buyers.
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Morel sucks
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Wesneski He seems to do better as a SP
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They still have a shot at being better than all the teams in the wild card hunt besides the Braves because they'll all mediocre like the Cubs. This could get interesting. I wonder how close they think Shaw is. He's hit really well the last month, another month of that could get him closer to playing 3b for Cubs and sticking Morel at DH or demote him and let Suzuki DH especially once Tauchman is back. Maybe another pen arm and/or catcher in trade. Getting Merryweather back will be nice.
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Steele is one of the very best pitchers in baseball
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They should target Jansen in FA and maybe trade for a 3b. If they really like Shaw at 3b they can always trade that 3b later when Shaw shows he can hit end field ok at mlb level. We have a bunch of internal options at DH going forward, like Seiya, Morel, Ballesteros, Triantos, maybe Caissie etc, some wild cards like McGeary, Mervis etc
