I think there's a higher likelihood they sign Soto over Ohtani, Correa/Turner/Bogaerts, Harper, and Machado.
With Correa (cheating), Harper, and Machado there were some "personality/clubhouse" concerns, plus for the latter 2 the Cubs were pretty tapped out on their payroll limit at the time. Ohtani we may have given a great offer but he was going to the Dodgers no matter what. And Turner/Bogaerts were both 30 years old and their contracts IMO were quite overpriced even for a big contracts.
The thing that could stand in the way may be the fact that Soto plays a position we don't have a need for, we just could use the offensive upgrade. But eventually getting rid of 2 of Bellinger/Happ/Suzuki would make roster and payroll room for Soto and Caissie.
OF + DH could look something like Soto/PCA/Caissie/Suzuki. We have Suzuki under contract through 2026 and before the contract is done Alcantara and/or Ballesteros/Triantos (at DH) should be ready, meaning Seiya could be traded. Over the next 2 seasons we should be able to get some solid prospects for Happ & Suzuki, plus Nico if they see Shaw replacing him at some point.
I like the Cubs staying fairly young (as many guys as possible still in their prime years) & able to consistently reload the farm by turning the roster over. Even with Soto they get to stay in his prime for several years, and could trade him when he hits his 30's before his value crumbles.