I don't think Tom is going to spend 400m of his money to save face with his customers (us). They let Rizzo, Bryant, Javy, Contreras go and they were WS heroes.
That said, I like Tucker as a player more than the majority of big FA's that come up.
Cubs are 7th in MLB in OPS vs LHP. Last month or 2 have been rough I agree. PCA looks inept and they take Busch out of the lineup, so it hurts when a LHP neutralizes 2 of your best hitters. Seiya/Dansby should help a bit there though.
Turner has 60 PA vs LHP this year. And that's playing all positions not just 1B.
I think it depends how July goes. If Shaw is still struggling and Turner is whimpering or hurt maybe they grab a 1b/3b RHB if the right deal comes along.
SP is still definitely the priority though, and probably another pen arm.
What's the difference in a FA playing for us for a year vs playing for another team prior? Tucker likely isn't giving the Cubs a discount. 400m is 400m. If i'm Tucker i'm testing FA and going to the highest bidder, so the Ricketts need to pay up. Given our payroll is embarrassingly low this year for a large market in a season where they're "all-in" I just don't see it as likely he signs here. Nor do I think this brass would now choose to invest 400m on the basis of some kind of "emotional ties" built up over a year here.
Doesn't mean he doesn't resign, but nothing they've done since winning the WS would indicate there's much of a liklehood. What would the betting odds be? 10% chance?
Tucker trade this year is still paying off. Over the next 3 to 6 years maybe not. At least we get a comp pick if Tucker walks, which seems likely given ownership.
Yeah and he's much less selective compared to April. 3.6% BB% in June. Seems to be doing the Nico thing of swinging at balls he thinks he can make contact even if it's not a good pitch to get the barrel on.
It is what it is, he'll come around. Amaya and PCA hit like trash in the first half of last year too. Just give him runway to relax and figure things out like those other 2.
Hitters have been sitting on Horton and Brown's fastballs and launching them. Hopefully its a location problem or something. Guys with this stuff shouldn't be hit this bad.
It's impossible to speculate. The Cubs might have preferred Shaw. I thought Shaw and Smith were about equal as prospects IMO when the Tucker trade was made, I thought they were our 2 best prospects considering Horton's arm issues. You give the edge to Shaw over Smith at that time because of the extra year, but Smith has always been very toolsy and athletic with high upside.
Shaw will hopefully be a good player for us. Sucks he's had a bad year hitting though and Smith/Paredes doing well, but that's baseball.
Them + Steele prove command is very important, and velocity doesn't make you a good pitcher, it just makes everything play up. Velo is the most overrated aspect of pitching by orders of magnitude.
Yeah he can still come around. The Cubs have dramatically changed his hitting stance (no longer closed) and leg-kick. If he's still hitting like arse by the ASB maybe they should just let him him hit however he's comfortable.
He had a lot of success with his style before, maybe just let him play. Dramatic tinkering after your first month in the league after having missing most of the Spring might have been a bit extreme.
It worries me that he doesn't have innings built up before this season. We're going to need him if we're in the playoffs. It was 2019 since he's thrown this many IP in a season, this pace is unsustainable. I hope they trade for a SP soon, and they could go with a 6-man and consider giving Boyd and Horton and extra day of rest while trying to keep Imanaga/Taillon/Rea on normal rest.
I really think teams generally need to do something to prevent so many pitcher injuries. Not sure what though. It's just insane even from a health and safety perspective to have almost every pitcher needing major elbow surgery at some point. Steele had his 2nd TJS. Taillon has 2. Its nuts.
Overall stats i guess. He did really well when they moved him to the bottom of the lineup. In Counsell's defense the rest of our RHB before him are meh too
I think they most likely acquire a #2 or 3 type they can pitch in the playoffs, maybe a Taillon type, and a reliever of some sort. Hoyer has never acquired an ace (Imanaga not considered a real #1 when acquired). SP are expensive around the deadline.
I think a 3B is on the table too after pitching needs are met. I could see them trying to sign Candelario who was just DFA'd.
Fangraphs projects the Cubs to go 45-41 the rest of the season. Yikes. Still good enough to win the division by 6 games they say.
Shota will be a big help, can;t wait until he's back.
Needed it on Opening Day too lol.
Cubs pitching was actually very good this month until this weekend.
I'll blame the wind. Our bats needed to get more balls up into the wind. Bottom of the lineup has been trash this month.
I meant Tucker being a Cub pre-free agency changing the math on them wanting or not to sign him to a big contract.
But yes those aspects you mentioned are essentially the math.
Ideal scenario here is Ricketts bumping up payroll by tens of millions and re-signing Tucker. I'd wager a big payroll team will sign him, which we aren't right now (we're 13th out of 30 teams in payroll this year).
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/tax