Stratos

Being a major market team means you have a higher payroll than mid-market and small market teams. That's it. Jed's job is to maximize the # of wins under the payroll he's given by every means possible, which is the same job every FO has regardless of payroll. Why not scratch and claw for every extra win like a good small or mid market team does? If waiting the market out is necessary for Jed to create the best roster possible for 2024 under the budget he's been given then i support it. My guess is Boras is the culprit, not Jed.

Sure both of these points are valid. I do think signing Hoskins to platoon with Mervis vs LHP (along with Wisdom) to see if we can work Mervis in as an everyday guy vs RHP is a good plan. If Mervis can handle RHP duties then we can DH Hoskins. If he can't then Hoskins can play 1B full-time. It may be that Mervis never hits LHP well, but it's way too early to tell. I don't think we should count on prospects becoming good MLB players, but I also think we should give them a fair shake at showing whether they can be or not. We're simply never going to be a great team without significantly more surplus. Having a loaded farm and blocking them all with longterm contracts is insane. The Braves have given young guys a shot and its paid off.

They have Mervis to give more PAs to this year plus Alonso as FA next year. BJ Murray sounds also start this year in AAA. McGeary too, and Bellesteros is in AA this year who also plays some 1B.

I find a better chance they trade for a position player. There's numerous good SP still on the FA market and the position side is weak this year after Ohtani. But signing those guys would be pretty good.

There's a big difference between not "believing" in a prospect and believing he just need more time to cook in the minors. Fans jump to conclusions that the Cubs have "given up" on Mervis, or on Morel when they started him in Iowa last year. Sometimes it's painfully obvious when a guy needs more time in the minors, and those 2 needed it and so does PCA unless the work he did over the winter impresses and he looks good in ST. But like Mervis last year, I don't think they're going to rush him, PCA is still very young, he's 21 y/o and never played college ball.

They probably feel PCA needs more time in AAA, and I think his MLB stint last year shows that. Besides the hitting he made some daft decisions on the bases and in the OF. He's got the physical talents but his baseball IQ isn't there yet IMO. More experience against advanced players in Iowa would be good for him, even if it's for most of the year.

Not sure if this has been posted but just read a tidbit on MLB Trade Rumors that the Cubs were reportedly in on Jung Hoo Lee. Makes a Bellinger signing more likely since they'd likely be in on him too: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/chicago-notes-lee-candelario-pepiot.html

I remember last offseason most Cubs fans wanted one (or 2) of Correa/Turner/Bogaerts, plus Jose Abreu, one of the better FA catchers like Christian Vazquez, and Senga. Can't remember who they wanted in CF, I guess one between Nimmo and Bellinger. Some wanted Conforto. We got Swanson, Mancini/Hosmer, Barnhart, Taillon, and Bellinger. New theory; If most Cubs fans want a player, that means most GM's will likely want him as well, which means they'll probably be over-bid in Jed's eyes, which means we probably won't sign them.

I think a GM's job regarding contracts is to maximize the number of wins per dollar spent, regardless of payroll. I think Jed has been pretty good at that so far. I think in FA he looks at all the good players they're interested in to inquire on, puts a price value on all of them, and usually signs the guy who comes in at the best price per projected value. If Swanson cost over 200m and Turner came in at less years and money than he did he would have signed Turner. I don't see anything wrong with this, every player has a value and a price, there's lots of good players available every winter to sign so I don't typically see a need to overpay for guys. Even top players are just a number on a page like the rest, it's all a math equation. He hasn't been perfect at this. He signed Mancini and arguably Smyly over value and we've all complained about it since the day they were signed. I think there's times he needs to overpay if we have no choice and makes sense from a cost-benefit analysis. He usually buys relievers with the same value-oriented approach, which to an extent is fine, but we went into 2023 with a lack of late-inning relief depth so I think he went too cheap there, and Jed didn't grab us the quality of relievers we clearly needed last trade deadline to get us to the playoffs. I remember Jed mentioning that the cost of relievers at the deadline was too high for them, but an overpay is better than nothing at all and leaving tons of value in the minors while the MLB team flounders a whole season, especially when he's already acquired Candelario. Re: Trading Cubs prospects for established players, I guess that remains to be seen. Some of these guys will need to be moved because they're starting to pile up in Iowa. Maybe he values good prospects more highly than most GM's compared to an established player with 1-3 years of control left?

He's probably speculating though.

First reaction is to agree, but does it really matter if you add a run with the bat or save a run with the glove? When discussing last offseason I remember Hoyer saying that the FO found that defense was undervalued in FA that winter so they leaned that way. Cubs have good prospects at every position. Whoever they get I hope they don't have a NTC.

They're just throwing money at good talent at this point. He's elite when he pitches and that seems like mostly what they care about.

I think it's pretty wild for a guy with his track record. 15-20m AAV plus lots of incentives would make more sense.

What if some of the best loaves of bread go on sale 30 minutes before the store closes because the store manager is kind of an arse and jacks up the price for the rest of the day?

This offseason I expected them to try to replace Bellinger's production by grabbing a corner bat (even if it's Bellinger), landing a SP to replace Stroman, and improving the pen. It's all still on the board. If they want a 95 win team this season they likely have spend well over the CBT which I don't expect them to do. In recent seasons they seem to be trying to be good enough to squeeze into the playoffs until the kids are ready, and the vast majority of their best prospects will be in AAA or AA this year and knocking on the door while providing lots of depth. The Cubs are pretty close. Cubs had a good run differential last year, enough for 90 wins of pythag W/L. If they were able to close out leads for more than half the season they would have easily made the playoffs (AZ had 1 more win than the Cubs). Fixing the pen and signing a couple good players isn't that hard. They just nabbed the best manager in baseball. The team is in good shape.

I don't remember Theo being irrational. The Phillies signed Bryce Harper, Cubs fans cried, and Theo signed zero-tool Daniel Descalso to a 2-year deal with a buyout for the 3rd year. This is what they do. IMO if most Cubs fans were the GM they would panic after every big signing and Boras would fleece them every winter. Then they'd take their salary as GM and lose it all in the stock market lol. Being a GM isn't much different than playing the stock market. Buying high, selling low, and making decisions based on emotion is a recipe for disaster. The Mets often buy high and they usually suck. The Braves didn't build their team in FA, they let Freeman and Swanson walk and used the money to extend all their good young players, and almost all their best players are still in their prime years. Craig Counsell is a smart dude and if he's sold on Jed's vision then i'll give Jed runway.

If they want Bellinger it sounds like that will drag out anyways. We all just need to relax. The offseason is a 3-4 month long poker game. Fans were panicking when the big SS guys were flying off the board last year then Jed nabbed Swanson on a solid deal, and were panicking when all the good SP's were flying off the board right before the lockout the year before and we nabbed Stroman on a good deal at the last minute. Jed goes down to the wire at the trade deadline too.

Buy low?

On the bright side, whatever pitcher we do sign now might have a chance to actually throw 170 IP.

I don't think that's it. He just fired Ross and hired Counsell. He was very aggressive there and that took a ton of balls.

Checking for signing news more than once a day is psychologically unhealthy I have discovered.

Maybe the Cubs will defer some of Wacha's contract in order to add more talent to the Cubs over the length of the deal.

"Hey Craig, here's a crap roster now go do your thing that we're paying you to do".

Hey good point you poo-poo head.

EXECUTE OPERATION CHEAPNESS. Bulldoze 80% of Wrigley, replace with facsimile with expensive box suites and electronic billboard (scoreboard) and mascot for birthday parties. Fire good loyal dude and hire manager who knows how to cheat the best in order to make crappy rosters into playoff teams. Don't sign stars, instead pump Morel with steroids, create Sammy Sosa 2.0 to maximize jersey sales. Pocket the profits and sell slivers of hope to fans every spring and summer like Tribune-era by striving to slide into playoffs every year with an 88 win club and hope for the best with playoff randomness. Shove bobble-heads into the pie-hole of any fan that complains.