Stratos
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Everything posted by Stratos
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Agree. He probably shouldn't have said this. It doesn't help Jed. Though this isn't really a secret to anyone. But again it's more of his "wish list" of what he's told the FO, he doesn't ultimately control who or if they get people. We know they're going to grab another SP (don't know the quality) and some pen arms.
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Happ is 3.5 WAR player. If we assume Bellinger can put up equal wRC+ and is a better fielder, thrower, and baserunner at a more valuable position he should put up more WAR than Happ unless injured or playing 1B.
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Cubs MVP (position player of the year): Bellinger Cubs Pitcher of the Year: Steele Best Cubs Offensive Player: Bellinger Best Defensive Player: Swanson Best Baserunner: Nico Best Relief Pitcher: Alzolay Rookie of the Year: Amaya Breakout Player: Seiya Comeback Player: Bellinger Most Hustle: Nico Most Fun to Watch: Morel Heart of the Team: Bellinger Nicest Player: Seiya Best Offseason FA signing: Bellinger Biggest Overachiever: Tauchman Most Disappointing Player: Mancini LVP (Worst Player): Mancini Play of the Year: Tauchman game-saving HR robbing catch vs Cardinals to end game. Game of the Year: Cubs @ Brewers July (Happ throws out 2 runners at home in extras including game-ender). Most Overused Fan Opinion: Bring up Mervis
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We're bored, this is a temporary cure. I'm too lazy to add up the vote results, so just give your opinion for these Cubs awards based on the 2023 season: Cubs MVP (position player of the year): Cubs Pitcher of the Year: Best Cubs Offensive Player: Best Defensive Player: Best Baserunner: Best Relief Pitcher: Rookie of the Year: Breakout Player: Comeback Player: Most Hustle: Most Fun to Watch: Heart of the Team: Nicest Player: Best Offseason FA signing: Biggest Overachiever: Most Disappointing Player: LVP (Worst Player): Play of the Year: Game of the Year: Most Overused Fan Opinion:
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So if we imagine the Cubs sign Bellinger, Hoskins, some other part-time DH/corner bat, one of the remaining 4 top SP (or SP trade), and some solid arms to improve the pen, how many wins do you project for this team? Not many clear holes on that team. I'd be satisfied with this offseason. I like their depth a lot in the upper minors. If they can cobble together a quality pen I can see them reaching around 90 wins or near. Let's say 88 wins with potential for a few more. Hoskins and another corner bat should hopefully be a significant upgrade over Mancini/Hosmer from last year. Canario and Mervis could contribute somehow too, along with a bunch of potential prospect call-ups in the 2nd half. Counsell hopefully gets the most out of the roster.
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Cubs seem to like to sign established pen guys coming off down years, banking on randomness of small samples. To their credit it's usually worked and I get it. Can't remember the last established guy they signed coming off a good year, maybe Kimbrel? It would be nice to go into ST without huge pen questions everywhere, but probably not going to happen. As long as there's enough quality depth to cover for inevitable injuries i'm good.
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So uhhhh who's going to sign all these free agents?
Stratos replied to Bertz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
The Dbacks winning 84 games, getting into the playoffs, and getting to the WS isn't good for the game. They still had the odds stacked against them but teams not trying 100% shouldn't be a winning strategy, like tanking. I agree they need to reduce the playoff randomness more. -
Hard to see Bellinger getting as low as 6/130, 24m AAV over 6 years = 6/144. Your numbers = 21.6m AAV, he'll get more and deserves it. We have to remember that he played 421 innings (58 games) at 1B and only 686 innings at CF last year for the Cubs. If he plays all his innings in CF last year we have to assume he would have put up at least 4.5 WAR or more. Playing 1B has a substantial drag effect on WAR, worth negative runs. He does everything well on the baseball field. If we assume Happ-like bat value, but more speed and better glove/arm and can play a pretty good CF he's going to make more than Happ, who makes 20m AAV. Happ is a 3.5 WAR player, and Bellinger is better. I'd hope for 4 WAR.
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Would you sign him to an MLB deal? He sucks. The Cubs think him not worthy of MLB playing time.
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Not sure if I posted this before. So i looked at team stats on Fangraphs. The amount of WAR that the median team (15th ranked out of 30) had at each position for the year last year was between 2.0 and 2.3 WAR. The exceptions were at 2B (2.8 WAR) and DH (0.5 WAR). Given most players don't typically play every inning for a team in a season, that means that an average full-time starting player for most positions will put up about 2.0 WAR, or maybe a little less like 1.8. So 0 WAR is replacement level (AAA) for a player, and around 2.0 is average. Since catcher isn't a full-time position, it would be where all catchers on a team add up to 2.0 as the median for the league. Cubs had 1.4 WAR last year at C. Last year the Cubs were weakest at 1B, DH, and C last year (all below average). Lots of room to easily improve at 1B and DH this year. They were 11th in MLB at 3B, surprisingly. Best position was CF (5.3 WAR total, 2nd in MLB).
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Yes I skimmed the first half of the article and just now looked at the 2nd half, he does go through the 2-strike numbers etc. Good article, agree, thanks for posting. I don't think Bellinger has a ton of power. I think i'd grade his tools as at least above average across the board, including hit and power tools. His K% was very good and his AVG, he had a good ISO, he can lift the ball and get some HR that way which plays above the raw power. Good outfielder, good first baseman, can throw and run, he can do everything on a diamond. Seemed like he vibed really well with his teammates on a team that seemed to really gel together. His power wasn't really an issue in 2022. His K% spiked in 2021-22 and the AVG and overall production cratered, he seems to have total changed his approach last year and fixed the K% and AVG problems. I think his BA and SLG will go down but I can't see him hitting .210 going forward. He can hit 20 HR and .260-.280 with speed and defense. Still worth signing. Most teams will probably think he overachieved last year and be nervous about the previous seasons so hopefully it drives down his price a bit.
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It's really hard to judge the guy by stats like EV and hard hit % when he's cutting down on his swing and just trying to put the ball in play with 2 strikes, and doing it. That will skew those stats. We should also be looking at max EV, which wasn't great for him either, and how he hit the ball before 2 strikes.
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So uhhhh who's going to sign all these free agents?
Stratos replied to Bertz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
That would be great for us. -
So uhhhh who's going to sign all these free agents?
Stratos replied to Bertz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Who might be in on Bellinger? Jays are out. -
We should be happy Ricketts bulldozed most of the historic Wrigley Field we all grew up with and turned it into a casino to line his pockets while refusing to put much if any of that extra revenue back into payroll. Tommy Boy is a greedy arse getting rich off our enthusiasm and loyalty and playing us for fools, we all know it.
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There's no point in judging this offseason until the start of ST and OD. Let's hope they at least spend up to around the CBT line or above.
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I'm sure there's still multiple teams wanting to dump (trade) players for salary reasons before ST or OD. If Jed is playing this like the trade deadline it could go down to the wire haha.
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If the Cubs have more or less similar talent level as 2023 but upgrade the pen and the SP do a bit better, like Taillon, there's a chance they could hit 90 wins. Their depth in Iowa will be even better this year, pretty elite AAA depth frankly. The Cubs had a good run differential in 2023, 4th in NL. The Phillies scored 15 fewer runs than the Cubs and had 90 wins. The Cubs had a better run differential than the Brewers, who could lock down close leads while the Cubs had major problem for half the year. I think they add 5 runs easy if they had a better pen in April/May and Sept.
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I'm not worried about the EV because of the 2-strike contact approach as you say. But I do think a lot of weakly hit balls on 2-strikes fell in to the point of him being a bit lucky. Everything just seemed to fall in. His BABIP is a bit high but nothing extraordinary however.
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I could see something around what Swanson got. 6 years would be great, through age 33, but 7 years is ok. He lost some WAR playing a lot of 1B last year. Probably more like 4.5 WAR last year. But I think he overachieved last year, he seemed to have a lot of luck on base hits. His expected stats were a huge drop from the actual stats.
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None.
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It's not perfect. It doesn't take into account quality of contact.
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It's a good extension, it's pretty cheap. They can always look to trade him in a few years before he really starts to decline. He'd still be under fairly cheap control and probably get more back because of it.
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Must suck to be a site like this one and Bleacher Nation to come up with articles with nothing to write about haha.
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You said he's "one of the healthiest pitchers in the game". He's 31 and has only pitched 2 full seasons because of injuries. He beat his xFIP by almost 1.5 runs this past season, which is why I said he overachieved. He's still a very good pitcher though and has great stuff. Can't see him coming cheap if he just won a Cy Young.
