I think if this rotation ends up being above average it will largely be due to luck. Our only SP's projected for above-average ERA's this season are Steele and Imanaga. Assad, Wicks, Hendricks, and Taillon are all projected for average to above average ERA's well over 4 and I agree with that being the most likely outcomes for all of them. Smyly and Wesneski will provide no help there. We may see Brown and/or Horton down the line this year but they probably don't pitch enough to be difference maker overall.
Hopefully we do get some luck like 2022 and some guys overachieve, and the pen does well also. Rooting for Neris, Leiter, and Cuas to have good years, and Alzolay stays healthy.